Oil price crisis.

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marksi
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Back in 2005, I started a thread about the price of oil. I think we're about to have a bloody big problem... but no one seems all that concerned, and I don't understand why.

http://www.metropol247.co.uk/forum/view ... f=1&t=2366

Way back then we were getting excited over the fact that a barrel of oil had reached the dizzy heights of $57.70, with predictions from Goldman Sachs that a "super spike" could mean it would eventually reach $105.

Today the price of a barrel reached a record price of $133.93.

Goldman Sachs is now suggesting $200 is possible "by 2010" though at current rises (+$4 today) it's going to be rather sooner than that.

I must admit that I'm now walking places I would previously have used the car for, which is a good thing... but I have no idea how pensioners are going to heat their homes next winter.
Jamez
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I think I'm gonna have to start taking the bus to work. It's absolutely ridiculous. It's not going to help my wallet that I've recently bought a 2.5 litre petrol BMW (it does 51 mpg if I stay under 2000 revs and freewheel down hills).

Thing is, the government could easily help us out by reducing some of the 70% or so tax levied on the UK fuel market. The era of Mad Max will be upon us sooner than we think.
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Nini
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Recession!!!
Spencer For Hire
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nodnirG kraM wrote:But where are the billions that the 70% tax bring into the treasury each year going to come from instead? An extra few pence on income tax? Withdrawing tax credits? Closing the NHS?
Lets not forget that aside from the fixed duty on fuel, there's also VAT, and so every time the price of the actual fuel rises, the government gets more money. They could easily use this to offset a cut in duty and not lose out.

Plus, considering how the rising price of fuel is the main factor driving inflation, it would surely benefit the economy to make fuel more affordable.

My guess is that they're keeping fuel duty cuts up their sleeves until just before the next election.
Alexia
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Spencer For Hire wrote:My guess is that they're keeping fuel duty cuts up their sleeves until just before the next election.
The way things are going for Gordan, he'll need that rabbit out of the hat a lot sooner...
Jamez
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Gordon Brown has probably realised by now that there is no way he is going to win the next general election. It's likely that there won't now be a general election until May or June 2010. He might have secured himself a mandate to govern if he hadn't bottled calling one last October.

The guy is a waster, a loser, a liar and a thief. I would never, ever vote for him or his decietful dictatorial party.

I'm not overly struck on David Cameron, but after eleven and counting years of the New Labour project (what a con that turned out to be!) we've got to give the others a chance. The current shambles of a government has got to go. It's just a great shame that the slack-jaw one-eyed Scot will cling onto power for another two years - by which time goodness knows what further damage he will have inflicted upon the country.
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Mr Q
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Cutting taxes on petrol is not a solution. At best it would represent a temporary reprieve, which would be eroded over time by further increases in the price of oil. The reality is we should be changing our behaviour because of higher prices - the price signal here, while no doubt painful for many people, is entirely legitimate. For a start, higher oil prices will facilitate investment in new oil exploration and digging (now in increasingly harder to reach places) to try and increase supply. Yet this alone is not enough. Part of the reason we consider current petrol/oil prices to be a 'crisis' is because we have developed few alternatives for fuel. I'm not some rabid environmentalist, simply a pragmatist. Oil is a fossil fuel - it is a finite resource. The increase in demand we're currently observing simply can't be matched by a comparable increase in supply. Indeed, by all accounts, supply should be expected to fall within the next decade or two (many oil producers are apparently over-reporting their remaining oil stocks as well). To this end, rising prices should act as an incentive to develop alternative fuel sources.

In saying that, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a petrol tax cut of some sort given Brown's failing leadership. It's blatantly populist, of course, but it might convince enough people that the government actually cares about how tough their lives are. Yet for it to be effective in an political context, the cut would need to be announced as close to the election as possible, to minimise the possibility that it would simply be eaten up by further price rises by the time the voters fill out their ballot papers. Whether Brown will even survive that long remains to be seen.
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Jamez
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Mr Q wrote: Part of the reason we consider current petrol/oil prices to be a 'crisis' is because we have developed few alternatives for fuel.
But we have. Electric cars, hydrogen cars, solar-powered cars, bio-fuel cars, LPG cars. Oil companies and governments aren't keen for us to switch to more environmentally friendly and cheaper methods of fuel because of the huge amounts of revenue fuel duty brings in for the governments and the massive profits for the oil companies.

There are numerous verified reports of assasination, espionage and threats made against individuals and companies by the oil giants and shadowy parts of governments that have tried in the past to dilute our thirst for oil.

Hydrogen powered cars are definitely viable. You can even run your diesel car on simple vegetable oil - but the greedy government doesn't want you to do that (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/2312521.stm).
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Mr Q
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Jamez wrote:
Mr Q wrote: Part of the reason we consider current petrol/oil prices to be a 'crisis' is because we have developed few alternatives for fuel.
But we have. Electric cars, hydrogen cars, solar-powered cars, bio-fuel cars, LPG cars. Oil companies and governments aren't keen for us to switch to more environmentally friendly and cheaper methods of fuel because of the huge amounts of revenue fuel duty brings in for the governments and the massive profits for the oil companies.

There are numerous verified reports of assasination, espionage and threats made against individuals and companies by the oil giants and shadowy parts of governments that have tried in the past to dilute our thirst for oil.

Hydrogen powered cars are definitely viable. You can even run your diesel car on simple vegetable oil - but the greedy government doesn't want you to do that (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/2312521.stm).
Jamez, I'm cynical at the best of times about government. But do I think there is a government conspiracy against alternative fuels? No I don't. While there have been many different concepts, none have yet proven attractive enough to replace oil on a wide scale. LPG is probably the closest so far, although there are two downsides to it: firstly, the loss of boot space because of where the tank has to be installed, and secondly the price of LPG is somewhat related to petroleum, and thus you wouldn't necessarily avoid rising fuel costs by converting. Indeed, LPG prices have increased significantly over the past year - approximately 50 per cent, I understand, here in Australia.

Every alternative has something of a downside. The problem with electric cars is how far you'll be able to travel before the battery runs out. The problem with hydrogen is that its extremely difficult to store at the right temperature. Solar power cars, to my knowledge, have not been widely developed and seem to be the reserve of science contests. And of course bio-fuel has the unfortunate downside - as we are now seeing - of raising global food prices, with maize crops now split between supplying food and supplying fuel. It also encourages farmers to switch to maize or sugar cane away from other types of crops, and so can have a pretty widespread impact on the prices of a range of different agricultural commodities.

As to the article you referred to, all that says is that the government's concern about using cooking oil is that people don't pay a fuel tax on it. On the surface that might appear to be greed, but there's a simple economic rationale behind it - taxes shouldn't be used to distort consumer choices (although in saying that there are plenty which do). If you only tax one type of fuel and you don't tax others, then people will (all else being equal) move towards using the non-taxed good. Consequently, if there were some way people could use vegetable oil as fuel and still pay taxes on it, the government would have no problem at all. But then that would defeat the purpose of consumers using vegetable oil - that is, to avoid paying the taxes in the first place. It is quite simply tax evasion and is rightly a criminal offence.
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Nini
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All this talk is making me wonder where my fusion powered car is.
all new Phil
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Jamez wrote:...but the greedy government doesn't want you to do that.
I'm not sure I understand you - in what way is the government greedy? What do you suggest they are doing with fuel taxes?
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