Brexit

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What's next?

Theresa May's Deal
8
18%
No deal
12
27%
People's vote
22
49%
Something else (pls specify)
3
7%
 
Total votes: 45
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Pete
Posts: 7146
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Location: Dundee

Mon 19 Nov, 2018 10.53

So... what do we all think then? Both in terms of what should and what might happen next.

Be nice remember.


My view, if you're wondering, is this...

I voted remain. Still think it was a bad idea. However I'm generally of the view it could have been made to work if the majestic Nick Timothy hadn't came along with his ridiculous red lines and no deal is better than a bad deal catchphrase.

The govt should have cut off people like Mogg at the outset and not pandered to them. Davis should have been fired for incompetence and Fox's dept shouldn't have ever existed. Instead an orderly transition of EFTA to begin with should have been looked at with the explanation that untangling from 45 years of union is going to take more than five mins. Article 50 should never have been used until a plan was in place.

However we are where we are, and it's ended up a massive mess. I think to be fair the deal May has got is probably the best on offer given the absurd red lines given and the amount of goodwill burned through. You'd think at times the cabinet were unaware that people in other European countries can actually hear what they're saying.

Although parliament could just assert its authority and veto the thing, its probably going to need another referendum to have "legitimacy" (or whatever counts for it). So I'd say the options need to be between the deal May has got, and remain.

No deal is not a credible option and never has been.

Of course what would help the remain cause could include
- actually promising that we'd use the powers that already exist to help with immigration issues / worries
- emphasising the fact that loads of european stuff was our idea, single market etc, and that if anyone has been lording it over the rest of the EU all this time its not Germany, its us
- a certain person to come out of his shed and admit he fucked it all up and apologise might go some way to convincing the centre of the Tory party


Also when this is all over, John Humphries needs put out to pasture.
"He has to be larger than bacon"
bilky asko
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Mon 19 Nov, 2018 13.25

Is pandering to the anti-immigration crowd really worth it to remain in the EU?
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Pete
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Mon 19 Nov, 2018 14.14

bilky asko wrote:
Mon 19 Nov, 2018 13.25
Is pandering to the anti-immigration crowd really worth it to remain in the EU?
I think what TM is currently doing is pandering to the anti-immigration crowd, which has been her MO for years with her claims about the pet cat etc.

I'd say there was a mistake in 2004 that ended being blown out of proportion. Plus it's mostly our govts fault if they don't build infrastructure for places that have an increased population.

But specifically it's things like the unenforced rules that would allow us to deport people who just come and sell big issues. It's a tiny minority of people who abuse free movement in that way, but it's that minority who end up making people think the whole concept is bad when in fact it's westminster's failure to properly implement the rules that already exist.
"He has to be larger than bacon"
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MarkAshley
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Mon 19 Nov, 2018 18.37

Which one is the option for "taking back control" and "an extra £350m per week for the NHS"?
cwathen
Posts: 1117
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

Mon 19 Nov, 2018 19.36

In terms of what's most likely, right now as of 19 November 2018, it's no deal. TM's position is that she can't negotiate any more and also that article 50 won't be extended. The EU's position is that they won't negotiate any more. But it won't get through parliament. Jezza still believes that voting it down will force a general election and get him into Downing Street where he plans to start again with his own deal, every other significant party plans to vote it down, it seems open to question as to whether the DUP will honour their confidence and supply agreement and vote with the government, and there will be Tory dissenters.

It would not entirely surprise me if something gives and a deal is reached, but at present that's not on the table.

This whole thing has been a shambles from beginning to end. The cock ups as I see them:

1. Triggering brexit should never have been as simple as a single round referendum with only a simple majority required. There should have been either a qualifying majority required, and/or a multi stage referendum with a vote on the concept of leaving, followed by a vote on the deal reached with an option to abandon the whole thing if it was deemed to be less favourable than staying in. We should never have ended up in this mess just because on the day the prevailing wind was just in the right direction to deliver a marginal leave vote. However, I cannot support a 'people's vote' because although that is essentially implementing a check which should have been there in the first place, the fact remains that such a check wasn't there and the vote was to leave under the system which was used and it was clear that the result would be respected. Trying to retro-fit in a second referendum because the 'wrong' decision was made is not democratic.

2. Campaigning on both sides was appalling, but the remain campaign was arguably worse. Instead of arguing about what was good about the EU, instead we just got project fear. The campaign was also not very visible. All I ever got asking me to vote remain was the official government leaflet, whilst vote leave were actively out and about even in small towns.

3. Triggering of article 50 without a plan. I questioned how leave voters could vote for something so significant without any clue as to how it would be implemented or what it would look like. That's why I voted remain. But then the government essentially did the same thing by triggering article 50 and setting in motion a ticking clock without even the vaguest of ideas about how they intended to proceed.

4. The 2017 general election. A needless diversion which they didn't have time for. Also generally farting around with no real push for progress, instead acting as if they had all the time in the world during 2017 and then trying to pull everything out of a hat just before the deadline. The article 50 period has basically been run the way the average 16 year old runs their GCSE coursework.
all new Phil
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Mon 19 Nov, 2018 20.35

Coooeeeeeeee. Leave voter here.

First off, I’ve almost been made to feel ashamed for voting the way I did, as if all people who voted leave are racist idiots. I’m far from that, in fact I’m not even arsed about immigration, I think it’s a huge benefit to the country. My beef has always been with the EU, which I’ve long thought of as being not run in the UK’s interest. I have the same belief in the UK’s ability to go it alone than I think Scottish independence supporters feel about Scotland. I don’t really understand why that’s such a bad thing.

For what’s next - I think Theresa May will get hounded out, but whoever takes over will face exactly the same issues. The only option that I think would get voted through parliament is to remain in the EU. I admire Theresa May’s commitment to making it work, I think she’s got an impossible task but fair play to her for wanting to see it through. Raab will probably replace her and last less than a year.
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Alexia
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Mon 19 Nov, 2018 22.24

The squirrels are going to take over.
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MarkAshley
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Tue 20 Nov, 2018 03.28

Lewes Bonfire Society's 2018 effigy, East Sussex, 5th November 2018
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thegeek
Posts: 517
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 12.35

Tue 20 Nov, 2018 10.13

I'm curious as to why, on her Downing Street press conference the other week, May stumbled out the third "no Brexit" option. She all but rolled back on it in Parliament the next day - but surely she didn't say it by mistake. Is she lining it up as a serious option? To me it's the most sensible one, though it always was.

I do have trouble seeing where we go next - even if the EU27 agree the deal, it's not going to pass the "meaningful" vote. So then what?
cwathen
Posts: 1117
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

Tue 20 Nov, 2018 19.09

Quite interesting developments since yesterday - Corbyn and Sturgeon having meetings about the possibility of a 'coalition of opposition' to the government's Brexit deal.

Meanwhile, the DUP abstained on the finance bill. Although claiming to remain committed to the confidence & supply agreement (for now anyway), they are publically calling it a 'warning shot', with warnings of further abstentions if there is not renegotiation.

Whilst in the Tory party although Graham Brady appears somewhat more short of the 48 letters than was claimed over the weekend, there continues to be a movement to force a leadership challenge.

What does this mean for TM? Probably not that much. Every other week seems to be her worst week ever with imminent demise predicted, then somehow she scrapes through to soldier on a bit longer, until the cycle repeats itself. Her resilience has to be admired, if nothing else.
Andrew
Posts: 260
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Tue 20 Nov, 2018 19.12

MarkAshley wrote:
Tue 20 Nov, 2018 03.28
Lewes Bonfire Society's 2018 effigy, East Sussex, 5th November 2018
Of course what is wrong there is that May was never anything to do with the Brexit Bus, she supported remain.

There does seem to be chunk of people that seem to think Brexit is fully aligned with the political parties. Tories means Brexit, Labour means remain. This is of course not the case.


I’m not sure how it will all end, no deal will ever be accepted as it will not satisfy hard and soft brexiteers. Remainers won’t accept any deal as they think remaining is still on the table, and Labour won’t vote for anything as they are playing party politics and want to get in power.

Although I’m leaning now towards a so called people’s vote. It obviously isn’t democratic and would people change their opinion about it if it was May who decided to do it? Also how many opinions would be on this vote?
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