The Next Big election: May 2016.

barcode
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The SNP's rise began in 2011, when it got its majority government, strangely in 2012 it got manged to remain the biggest party in votes setas and shares in council elections, It only managed to retain 7 councils. While labour took outright control of three, which is pretty good going and also managed to regain a number of other councils. So the SNP bandwagon is going up and down.

Since 2014 SNP/YES its lost around 200'000, to be fair NO side 500'000 voters, I bet most of these just dont give a crap. The other problem is turnout for Holyrood is poor at only 50%.

With the by elections again is up and down, Glenrothes in 2008 turnout was similar to election in 2005 and Labour actually got more votes. SNP is spread across the Scotland while Labour seems, its core support is staying strong, around 25%?
DTV
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barcode wrote:The SNP's rise began in 2011, when it got its majority government, strangely in 2012 it got manged to remain the biggest party in votes setas and shares in council elections, It only managed to retain 7 councils. While labour took outright control of three, which is pretty good going and also managed to regain a number of other councils. So the SNP bandwagon is going up and down.

Since 2014 SNP/YES its lost around 200'000, to be fair NO side 500'000 voters, I bet most of these just dont give a crap. The other problem is turnout for Holyrood is poor at only 50%.

With the by elections again is up and down, Glenrothes in 2008 turnout was similar to election in 2005 and Labour actually got more votes. SNP is spread across the Scotland while Labour seems, its core support is staying strong, around 25%?
By the very definition of a 'rise' it cannot have begun in 2011 when they got their majority government, a rise would have had to have been before then. There are many points in history where the SNP rise was said to begin, but 2011 is not one of them. As a movement with any success, the SNP's rise began in the mid-60s reaching a peak in the 1974 elections when they gained 7 then 11 seats. Due to the Labour minority government in the late-70s, the SNP were able to exert some influence including getting a devolution referendum - due to some unfair and bizarre technicalities the referendum didn't pass despite a 51.6% yes vote. The SNP were then set back a bit under the Consevatives although managed to gain some votes playing off of resentment at the Conservative government in Scotland, when New Labour came to power the SNP got another referendum and so began another rise which ended in an SNP minority administration and then an SNP majority government. The SNP's support did the average 'in government' thing of falling in 2013 and early 2014 before a huge surge in late 2014 in the aftermath of the Scottish Independence Referendum when the entire Scottish political climate changed. In two months the SNP went from neck and neck with Labour in polls to having over a 20% lead, within a year this had increased to over 25%.

Given the huge upheaval in Scottish politics that happened in September 2014 you cannot seriously keep pointing to pre-indie ref local council results as any kind of indication of SNP performance this year. The SNP bandwagon isn't going up and down, it's continuously going up. Your paragraph about Yes and No side losing voters I have no understanding of. The SNP and Scottish Green Party (Yes) saw a massive increase in party members in the aftermath of the referendum and the SNP went on to do somewhat quite well at the UK general election, in case you missed that.

Plus highlighting that turnout at the last Holyrood election was only 50.3% is once again showing that you are ignoring the post-referendum upsurge in political interest in Scotland. In 2010 the Scottish turnout at the general election was 63.8%, in 2015 the turnout was 71.1% (higher if you remove Glasgow from the equation) an increase of 8%. In the Scottish Independence Referendum turnout was 84.6%, up 24% on the previous Scottish referendum. Furthermore the latest Survation Scottish Attitudes Poll, 'Definitely would vote' is at 70.2% - that is 77% for SNP voters compared to 74% for Labour voters.

A few over highlights from the poll that undermine your 'SNP not doing so well' argument are
- a positive net satisfaction rating for the government on every issue (something a UK government would kill for)
- 21% of 2014 'No' voters saying they'll vote SNP in the constituency element
- 10% of 2015 Labour voters saying they'll vote SNP in the constituency element
- Constituency vote leads in every region ranging from 14.5% (South Scotland and actually against the Conservatives) to 47% (Glasgow)
- Double digit leads in every age group, socioeconomic group, gender and region in both regional and constituency voting intention (except South Scotland regional)
- only a 1.6% lead for a 'No' vote in the event of a Second Indie Ref
- Leadership ratings - David Cameron -31, Jeremy Corbyn -17, Tim Farron -8, Nicola Sturgeon +27, Willie Rennie -7, Kezia Dugdale -9, Ruth Davidson -6, Patrick Harvie +/- 0.
- Leadership ratings among party's own voters - David Cameron +68, Jeremy Corbyn +6, Tim Farron +34 and Nicola Sturgeon +90.

So really is the SNP bandwagon actually going down? Can you seriously say they aren't going to clean up on May 5th? And can you seriously reiterate that Labour aren't doing that badly in Scotland given that on the regional vote they are now polling 3rd in Lothian and Mid Scotland & Fife, 5th in Highlands and Islands and only have a 0.1% lead over the Conservatives in North East Scotland.
barcode
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The reason I keep on pointing out to past election is because there managed to get the people to come out and vote, and this election is no different.

For some other strange reason more scots always come out to vote at Westminster than Holyrood elections.

700'000 voters has disappeared since 2014 REF, I bet there done come back in this election, what is there not to understand. IF the SNP can't keep hold of all the YES people there had 6 months early my money is there will be further reduction. I do know where some of the yes people have gone... The greens and there made clear there not going to vote for the SNP in any form this time around.

Lets see if:
* SNP really clean up and get all the constituency eats for this election, I don't believe that for one second.
* Turnout will be just as high this time around for this election.
* I think there still a few rabbits will be pulled out of the hat.
DTV
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Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:The reason I keep on pointing to past elections is because they managed to get people to come out and vote, and this election is no different.
So you keep referring to past elections because this election is also an election where people will come out and vote? When discussing Northern Irish elections I could refer back to the UUP's performance in the 1965 Northern Irish Parliamentary elections but that has little bearing on the outcome of the current Assembly Elections as there is now a different political climate. The current Scottish political climate is much like the late-60s and 70s in Northern Ireland in that it is a watershed moment - parties and allegiances are changing. The SNP have usurped Labour in much the same way was the UUP increasingly lost support to rival unionist groups culminating in their near irrelevance 40 years later. Admittedly the changes in party structure are happening far quicker than they did in Northern Ireland, but pretty soon one of the parties (probably the Conservatives) will take the decision to become the major unionist party. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the Scottish Conservatives returned to their pre-65 image and autonomy.
barcode wrote:For some strange reason more Scots always come out to vote at Westminster than Holyrood elections.
Always come out to vote in greater numbers at Westminster elections? Well there have only ever been 4 Holyrood elections and it depends which elections you compare, 58.2% of Scots turned out to vote in the 1999 Holyrood election compared to 58.1% in the 2001 Westminster election. Plus it is incredibly hard to gauge turnout, but it is highly likely that turnout will be substantially higher this time around given the change in the political climate.
barcode wrote: 700'000 voters have disappeared since the 2014 REF, I bet they don't come back this election, what is there not to understand? If the SNP can't keep hold of all the YES people they had 6 months earlier - my money is that there will be further reduction. I do know where some of the yes people have gone... The greens and they've made clear there not going to vote for the SNP in any form this time around.
As for voters disappearing, I had no idea of that Sturgeon had been influenced by Stalinism as well as the Nordic Model. Just because less people voted in the General Election doesn't mean the SNP have 'lost' them or couldn't keep hold of them and as you pointed out earlier more people who had voted no subsequently didn't vote for unionist parties - so what is the point here? That the SNP will have lost less voters than Labour and the Conservatives thus having an even higher percentage vote?
barcode wrote:Lets see if:
* The SNP really clean up and get all the constituency seats this election, I don't believe that for one second.
Everyone sees that as unlikely, even though some generous polls would project it. Even some of the most 'conservative' polls (in terms of SNP support) have given them all but 5 constituency seats - with the Lib Dems retaining both Orkney and Shetland and the Conservatives getting a few border seats. The thing with the constituency votes is that, while on the regional vote the SNP has competition from RISE and the Greens, the SNP are the only nationalist party standing with an effective campaign in every seat compared to three unionist parties who will just split each others vote. While the Lib Dems and the Conservatives still have some areas of strong support, Labour's homeland - Glasgow - has abandoned Labour even more so than the rest of the country.
barcode wrote:* Turnout will be just as high this time around for this election.
It probably will, polls indicate so and there is a general upward trend in Scottish political mobility from five years ago.
barcode wrote:* I think there still a few rabbits will be pulled out of the hat.
I expect there will be a rabbits pulled out of the hat. But then again it'll depend who's pulling them out of the hat. Nicola Sturgeon is an incredible communicator and undoubtedly one of the most effective political leaders this country has ever seen, match that with a fairly good record in government and you have one of the most effective election winners this country has ever seen. She'll be able to pull out nice, soft, cuddly rabbits. Contrast that to the rabbits pulled out Labour's hat, to quote Malcolm Tucker, it'll be "The rabbits are falling to pieces, the fucking heads are coming off and frightening the kids.".

You've got a communicator who's far better (in every way) than Tony Blair up against an incompetent, divided and self-destructing Labour Party; the loathed, incompetent and dull Liberal Democrats; a Scottish Conservative party which, while substantially more centrist and one-nation than the Westminster party, is going to find it hard to shake off the c*ntish image of the Westminster party; UKIP; and a well meaning but merely an SNP protest vote - the Scottish Greens, who in the unlikely event of the SNP failing to secure a majority would likely enter a coalition or deal with them anyway.
barcode
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She'll be able to pull out nice, soft, cuddly rabbits. Contrast that to the rabbits pulled out Labour's hat, to quote Malcolm Tucker, it'll be "The rabbits are falling to pieces, the fucking heads are coming off and frightening the kids.".
That made me laugh,
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WillPS
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http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/dave ... emy-corbyn

Another piece in The Guardian putting down Corbyn regardless of what the result might be. I fucking hope English/Welsh council votes swing massively towards Labour, just to see how The Guardian massage that as somehow being another sign that Corbyn is crap.
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WillPS
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http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... l-election

A genuine chance of a late-2016 General Election, or just rabble rousing?
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barcode
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WillPS wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... l-election

A genuine chance of a late-2016 General Election, or just rabble rousing?
Pile of crap. we have fix term parliaments now;

Either its vote of no confidence or 2/3 vote for all MPS vote, neither will happen.
DTV
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Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:
WillPS wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... l-election

A genuine chance of a late-2016 General Election, or just rabble rousing?
Pile of crap. we have fix term parliaments now;

Either its vote of no confidence or 2/3 vote for all MPS vote, neither will happen.
Though theoretically the Conservative whips could get them to vote for a vote of no confidence in order to get a surprise election.

Furthermore the likelihood of them calling an election after their leader has just resigned is unlikely and dependent on who it is. The Conservative party will be in a mess for a few months after the referendum anyway - if we stay in expect a few backbenchers to cross the floor to UKIP and if we leave the Eurosceptics will stage a coup and likely get one of their own for leader. Though Boris would be the obvious 'popular' choice, if they went for May or Gove then they'll be wanting to push an election as far back as possible. It seems like an odd story though, there are obvious reasons they could call an election early such as Labour becoming increasingly farcical and having no actual policies at the moment due to them concentrating on foreign policy - the one area that has always divided the Labour Party.

There's no electoral advantage though to the Tories calling an election, it's not like they're polling exceptionally well - they may have a lead over Labour but that's the same lead as the last election result and they haven't even imploded over Europe yet. If anything they'd probably end up losing the odd seat to the Lib Dems, UKIP or even Labour and end up with no majority. Plus they haven't even begun their gerrymandering, sorry, constituency boundary review that they want to implement.
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WillPS
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barcode wrote:
WillPS wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... l-election

A genuine chance of a late-2016 General Election, or just rabble rousing?
Pile of crap. we have fix term parliaments now;

Either its vote of no confidence or 2/3 vote for all MPS vote, neither will happen.
Two thirds is entirely possible. New Tory leader asks his party to vote in favour - Labour would have little choice but to follow or be seen as cowards. Lib Dems would have a real chance of doubling their presence, so they'll do it. Less likely to be keen are the SNP, NI parties, Plaid & Green (and possibly UKIP), but they can't make up 1/3 amongst themselves.
DTV wrote:
barcode wrote:
WillPS wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... l-election

A genuine chance of a late-2016 General Election, or just rabble rousing?
Pile of crap. we have fix term parliaments now;

Either its vote of no confidence or 2/3 vote for all MPS vote, neither will happen.
Though theoretically the Conservative whips could get them to vote for a vote of no confidence in order to get a surprise election.

Furthermore the likelihood of them calling an election after their leader has just resigned is unlikely and dependent on who it is. The Conservative party will be in a mess for a few months after the referendum anyway - if we stay in expect a few backbenchers to cross the floor to UKIP and if we leave the Eurosceptics will stage a coup and likely get one of their own for leader. Though Boris would be the obvious 'popular' choice, if they went for May or Gove then they'll be wanting to push an election as far back as possible. It seems like an odd story though, there are obvious reasons they could call an election early such as Labour becoming increasingly farcical and having no actual policies at the moment due to them concentrating on foreign policy - the one area that has always divided the Labour Party.

There's no electoral advantage though to the Tories calling an election, it's not like they're polling exceptionally well - they may have a lead over Labour but that's the same lead as the last election result and they haven't even imploded over Europe yet. If anything they'd probably end up losing the odd seat to the Lib Dems, UKIP or even Labour and end up with no majority. Plus they haven't even begun their gerrymandering, sorry, constituency boundary review that they want to implement.
I suppose you're right - although what good will a move to UKIP do in the event of an 'in' vote? The moment is now, it's hard to imagine an SNP style situation where they win out of the referendum going against them.

I can't remember Boris being a party to it - but when Gordon Brown flinched on holding a general election following him taking up leader position in 2007 - there was a whole chorus of Tory MPs declaring he was a coward and at every opportunity David Cameron would declare he should 'get to the palace'. Mind you, this is the party who at that stage were planning to 'match Labour spending' so that probably counts for nothing.

Ticking away in the background to the EU referendum is the Chinese economy - which looks increasingly likely to tank the global economy again.I imagine what happens between now and the Summer in that regard will to a great extent inform the decision of whether to risk it and safeguard an extra year of power or not.
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barcode
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One party has over spent on the last three By elections. There is a chance of police investigations:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8ZKn3qXKAc
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