barcode wrote:Its claimed Labour could lose all the Constituency seats, somehow I doubt it, since the seats are smaller than MP, and SNP were unable to win a few of the By elections. Fife could go against SNP over the Forth bridge, Aberdeenshire go also go against SNP over the OIL.
Most people are dissatisfied with both DC and JC!
Satisfaction with David Cameron as Prime Minister:
Satisfaction with Jeremy Corbyn as Labour Party leader:
Size of the constituencies and local by-elections have very little relevance in predicting the outcome of the Scottish general election. People vote differently in local elections and nobody turns up for them let alone local byelections. The fact that Holyrood constituencies are smaller in area than Westminster constituencies is only really going to benefit the Lib Dems in that Orkney and Shetland are separate constituencies and the Conservatives on the Border where they can pick up a few seats.
If you actually look at the opinion polls in any depth you'll see that though the SNP don't poll as well in the Mid Scotland and Fife, the still have a lead of over 15% over Labour. Aberdeenshire's region, North East Scotland, is the SNP's second highest polling region after Glasgow and with an almost 40% lead over Labour it is highly unlikely that the SNP won't win all the Aberdeenshire seats. While Nationally Labour are still the second placed party, there are now two regions where they don't even poll second - Including Highlands and Islands where they are currently polling below the SNP, the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Others in the Constituency vote. Disaffected SNP voters aren't going to return to Labour unless it's the independence project they are disaffected with.
With the leader satisfactions, it's hardly anything new. All party leaders always have negative satisfaction ratings - Nicola Sturgeon is the only leader I've ever seen with a positive satisfaction rating. Also it's barely a surprise that the 'satisfied' part of the question always corresponds to the wider poll percentage. What a surprise that most Conservative voters think that the Conservative leader is doing a good job and most non-Conservative voters don't. Though -18 for Corbyn is quite high given that about 30-40% of Labour Voters are dissatisfied with him in most polls.