I seem to remember that there was an election prediction thread (i.e. I did a search and found said thread) in 2010, and I reckon that looking into our collective crystal balls might be more interesting this time round given the potential political eruption in (at least) Scotland.
My prediction is a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party; the SNP will end up with over 50 seats, the Lib Dems will be down to about 15-20 seats, and UKIP will end up with more than the 1-2 seats predicted by most polls.
In terms of forming a government, I think that Labour would just have the edge, but only just.
Giving your ball a rub for the election
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robschneider
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My prediction isn't that different. I believe that the Conservatives will come in as the largest party - just. I also believe UKIP will get far more seats than is being projected. I think it'll be more like 10+.
I predict a Conservative/UKIP coalition, with deals done on a confidence-and-supply basis where needed. EU Referendum in 2016, and Immigration rules significantly toughened up.
I predict a Conservative/UKIP coalition, with deals done on a confidence-and-supply basis where needed. EU Referendum in 2016, and Immigration rules significantly toughened up.
My safe prediction is the same as bilky's, hung parliament with Conservatives largest party, big gains for SNP - who at the moment seem to be the party who can do no wrong (let's see how long that lasts!), and Lib Dems down to 20 or so seats. However I think that UKIP will still only get 1-2 seats as the polls are suggesting.
Risky prediction - I do wonder if we may have a surprise result in a very small Conservative majority. However, this election campaign we've had a veritable smorgasbord of polls suggesting that there won't be, so I'm more inclined to go with the safe prediction.
The more exciting result from a political viewpoint is surely the hung parliament. Not only will questions be raised about the leadership of Miliband or Cameron if either fails to get in, but also the viability of the FPTP voting system if it can no longer do what it's supposed to - elect strong majority governments.
Risky prediction - I do wonder if we may have a surprise result in a very small Conservative majority. However, this election campaign we've had a veritable smorgasbord of polls suggesting that there won't be, so I'm more inclined to go with the safe prediction.
The more exciting result from a political viewpoint is surely the hung parliament. Not only will questions be raised about the leadership of Miliband or Cameron if either fails to get in, but also the viability of the FPTP voting system if it can no longer do what it's supposed to - elect strong majority governments.
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Square Eyes
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Tories could struggle to form a coalition I think. Lib Dems will be diminished and UKIP won't have enough. So can foresee a struggle for the Tories to get over the line.
Labour with the SNP seems most likely. Labour seem to have more options with parties more willing to collaborate with them.
Labour with the SNP seems most likely. Labour seem to have more options with parties more willing to collaborate with them.
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Nick Harvey
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But, given that Millipede has now ruled out even a loose agreement with the SNP, wouldn't a Labour/SNP coalition now be something of a "tuition fees" sized u-turn, probably with a "liberal" sized backlash?
Whilst, I'm sure the Scots would love that outcome, the (not many, I admit) Labour voters I speak to in England, all seem to both hate the SNP and be shit scared of them having any influence in the next parliament.
Whilst, I'm sure the Scots would love that outcome, the (not many, I admit) Labour voters I speak to in England, all seem to both hate the SNP and be shit scared of them having any influence in the next parliament.
Spoke at length about this very thing to a Labour canvasser acquaintance of mine last night. Bottom line is Miliband HAS to continue to toe the party line up until May 7th because of all those poor sods in Scotland fighting the losing battle for Labour. Imagine if he agreed NOW to an SNP deal. All those Labour supporters in Scotland would flock to other parties, all those Labour canvassers would feel betrayed, and he would effectively have stabbed Jim Murphy in the front. (Not that that would be a bad thing.) Plus his whole "one-nation" Labour thing would be up the wall.
Immediately post-election, if the results produce the 50+ SNP MPs we're expecting, he can do a Cameron and say he is following the "will of the people" by including the SNP in a deal / pact / vote by vote arrangement, whatever. Don't forget the little helping hands of Plaid's 4-7 seats, and the SDLP's 3.
RobS - I don't know what polls you've been reading mate, but at the moment UKIP are on for about 4 seats tops. Awful lot of shy Tories in those seats dude.
Tories must now go flat out for the win. Trouble is for them, they don't seem capable of that. This campaign for them has been so dour, and while not exactly strewn with gaffes, the negative campaigning from their media lackeys, forgetting your football team and generally being yawnworthy hasn't done Cameron any favours. Already looks like a lame duck.
My prediction? Tories win, but can't form govt. Labour + SNP will already be talking now, informally. Labour + SNP + Plaid + Greens + SDLP loose arrangement on vote by vote basis. Co-operative politics. Would make a nice change!
Immediately post-election, if the results produce the 50+ SNP MPs we're expecting, he can do a Cameron and say he is following the "will of the people" by including the SNP in a deal / pact / vote by vote arrangement, whatever. Don't forget the little helping hands of Plaid's 4-7 seats, and the SDLP's 3.
RobS - I don't know what polls you've been reading mate, but at the moment UKIP are on for about 4 seats tops. Awful lot of shy Tories in those seats dude.
Tories must now go flat out for the win. Trouble is for them, they don't seem capable of that. This campaign for them has been so dour, and while not exactly strewn with gaffes, the negative campaigning from their media lackeys, forgetting your football team and generally being yawnworthy hasn't done Cameron any favours. Already looks like a lame duck.
My prediction? Tories win, but can't form govt. Labour + SNP will already be talking now, informally. Labour + SNP + Plaid + Greens + SDLP loose arrangement on vote by vote basis. Co-operative politics. Would make a nice change!
UKIP shrink to a single seat.
Greens gain 1.
The rest pretty much as every poll predicts, Labour/Tory within 10 seats of eachother. I think the balance may favour Labour, with the SNP underperforming, achieving high 30/low 40 seats.
I expect a Labour minority government to be the result.
Greens gain 1.
The rest pretty much as every poll predicts, Labour/Tory within 10 seats of eachother. I think the balance may favour Labour, with the SNP underperforming, achieving high 30/low 40 seats.
I expect a Labour minority government to be the result.
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all new Phil
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I predict same as now - Con and Lib Dem coalition, except with slightly more Tories and slightly less Lib Dems.
UKIP to win 3 or 4 seats, tops.
Labour below 30% share.
UKIP to win 3 or 4 seats, tops.
Labour below 30% share.
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Martin Phillp
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Too close to call, but I'll go for this:
Labour largest party but wiped out in Scotland, not enough for a majority gov, but after the election start negotiations with the SNP.
UKIP lose Rochester and Strood to the Tories, Con keep Thanet South (the seat that Farage is standing in), but keep Douglas Carswell in Clacton.
Lib Dem losses in the South West to the Tories. Clegg keeps his seat by the skin of his teeth.
One to look out for is Bermondsey and Old Southwark. At last year's council election, Labour took the majority of seats in Simon Hughes's long standing seat. He may be the LD's biggest scalp next week.
Labour largest party but wiped out in Scotland, not enough for a majority gov, but after the election start negotiations with the SNP.
UKIP lose Rochester and Strood to the Tories, Con keep Thanet South (the seat that Farage is standing in), but keep Douglas Carswell in Clacton.
Lib Dem losses in the South West to the Tories. Clegg keeps his seat by the skin of his teeth.
One to look out for is Bermondsey and Old Southwark. At last year's council election, Labour took the majority of seats in Simon Hughes's long standing seat. He may be the LD's biggest scalp next week.
TVF's London Lite.
I get the feeling UKIP might just managed to increase its number of seats, maybe 3? 5? or even 7. I also think SNP will NOT get over 50 seats, I think there may actually be alot of tact voting in Scotland. I think the Lib dems will hold on to a good number of seats in the south west.
7 UKIP seats? Keep taking the pills son....barcode wrote:I get the feeling UKIP might just managed to increase its number of seats, maybe 3? 5? or even 7. I also think SNP will NOT get over 50 seats, I think there may actually be alot of tact voting in Scotland. I think the Lib dems will hold on to a good number of seats in the south west.