2015 UK Election

[barcode]

The talk is, Torys migh get the most seats JUST, with labour coming second, but the maths would work out for Lab / SNP / Lib dems Goverment. And since most of the seats in scotland would have went to Labour in the first, I think its fair to say people are trying to make sure further controlls are put in place.

[Alexia]

Jesus Christ.... it's almost IMPOSSIBLE to predict the number of seats at this juncture, no matter how much you may want to. There's THREE months to the election. Anything could happen. What you think, what I think, what even the most talented election experts think, is irrelevant because right now it's impossible to call. Impossible.

[bilky asko]

New plans for the debates

The BBC and ITV have gone for a veritable orgy of parties, with Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats, UKIP, the SNP, the Greens, and Plaid Cymru all coming together for a mega-debate.

Channel 4 and Sky have plumped for a head to head between Labour and the Conservatives.

I hope the timing of the debates means that one of the mega-debates comes last, so you don't get the current top two getting the last word over the other parties.

EDIT: For some reason I posted this here instead of on TV Forum. Oh well.

[Gavin Scott]

The talk is, Torys migh get the most seats JUST, with labour coming second, but the maths would work out for Lab / SNP / Lib dems Goverment. And since most of the seats in scotland would have went to Labour in the first, I think its fair to say people are trying to make sure further controlls are put in place.

Are you saying most seats in Scotland will go to Labour?

[barcode]

The talk is, Torys migh get the most seats JUST, with labour coming second, but the maths would work out for Lab / SNP / Lib dems Goverment. And since most of the seats in scotland would have went to Labour in the first, I think its fair to say people are trying to make sure further controlls are put in place.

Are you saying most seats in Scotland will go to Labour?

No, trying to explain is not easy, I think I mean, people will just vote SNP to make sure Labour ( ie the goverement) keeps its promises for Scotland.
On many things you could not put a fag paper between Labour and the SNP.

Since many of the seats would have Labour anyways the tories have no vote to form a new goverment IF Labour and SNP seats = Majoriaty. It works both ways, UK wanted us to stay...

[all new Phil]

How much of a mandate would Labour have were they to come second in terms of numbers of seats (and vote %), but had a majority if they formed a coalition with the SNP?

A Scottish party acting as kingmakers would not go down well in England, especially if they picked the second place party. For all the anti-Tory stuff you hear, it's clear from their pretty poor polling so far that the appetite for a Labour-led government just isn't there, especially one with Miliband and Balls at the top.

It's going to be a fascinating election (if you like that sort of thing). Afaik in recent times no governing party has ever increased its vote (which the Tories would need to do), yet no opposition has ever won from such low opinion polling (I seem to remember the Tories under Hague used to poll 40+%).

For all the talk of coalitions, however, I'm not sure the minor parties will perform as expected. UKIP won't win many (if any) seats, greens probably won't gain any more, and lib dems will probably lose a fair few. I reckon the number of seats held by Tories and labour combined could increase, making an outright majority more likely.

[DTV]

How much of a mandate would Labour have were they to come second in terms of numbers of seats (and vote %), but had a majority if they formed a coalition with the SNP?

A Scottish party acting as kingmakers would not go down well in England, especially if they picked the second place party. For all the anti-Tory stuff you hear, it's clear from their pretty poor polling so far that the appetite for a Labour-led government just isn't there, especially one with Miliband and Balls at the top.

It's going to be a fascinating election (if you like that sort of thing). Afaik in recent times no governing party has ever increased its vote (which the Tories would need to do), yet no opposition has ever won from such low opinion polling (I seem to remember the Tories under Hague used to poll 40+%).

For all the talk of coalitions, however, I'm not sure the minor parties will perform as expected. UKIP won't win many (if any) seats, greens probably won't gain any more, and lib dems will probably lose a fair few. I reckon the number of seats held by Tories and labour combined could increase, making an outright majority more likely.

The mandate question is interesting. I guess it will be a similar scenario to 1951 when Churchill got reelected despite only getting 44% of the vote (massive by today's standards) when Attlee got 48%. The Tories did then have slightly more seats than Labour but only about 10 and went into a coalition (although nobody remembers it as such) with the National Liberals.

If Labour did come second in both share and seats but could form a majority with the help of the SNP then it is within their constitutional right. In the 20s there was at least one election where Labour and the Liberals went into coalition despite coming 2nd and 3rd on both fronts, so it does have precedent. In fact they would have a mandate to govern as the Labour + SNP vote would probably be larger than the Tory vote share which would legitimise a Labour government. You mention that there isn't the appetite in Scotland for a Labour government but some polls in Scotland have indicated that the preferred outcome of the election is Labour largest party with assistance from the SNP.

With your talk of the smaller parties I think you are probably right on that front. The Lib Dems will probably lose half their seats (owing to the fact about half their seats, including Sheffield Hallam, are university seats) although there are some Lib Dem strongholds in certain regions such as the South West and Orkney & Shetland (which they've held since 1950) which are unlikely to change. UKIP probably will win somewhere between 2 and 5 seats, probably losing Rochester & Strood. The only people who seem to think UKIP will do well are the Kippers themselves - no Psephologists is going to be predicting the ridiculously high numbers the kippers are. The Greens will almost definitely keep Brighton Pavilion and could realistically take Bristol West and Norwich South if they focus their efforts in those seats. Plaid Cymru is interesting as nobody knows what the hell they do.

I suppose it may rest on these debates to some extent. Some commentators have been saying that the Greens could be boosted if people see that they are the real outsider party rather than UKIP (given UKIP's new funding sources). The truth is in the next 102 days a lot could happen. As Wilson said "A week is a longtime in politics". If there is another EU crisis because of the Greek election it could benefit UKIP, if there is a massive environmental crisis it would probably benefit the Greens, if there this NHS crisis deepens Wyre Forest may return to the NHA. If during the debates Cameron punched Farage, Cameron's poll rating would likely soar. The only thing that is certain is that this will be the most unpredictable election in British Political History, it'll be the first time 6 parties get over 3% of the vote and will be the most interesting Commons makeup since 1918.

[all new Phil]

Agree on most of that, but just to clarify my comment about the lack of appetite for a Labour-led government, I was referring to England, but I agree with what you say about Scotland.

[Gavin Scott]

Agree on most of that, but just to clarify my comment about the lack of appetite for a Labour-led government, I was referring to England, but I agree with what you say about Scotland.

Labour may be the Scots' least-worst option for UK government, but that shouldn't be confused as an appetite by any means.

An Ipsos MORI poll for STV last week put support for the SNP at the coming Westminster election at 52%, compared to just 24% for Labour. The numbers are staggering, frankly, and increasingly pointing at a rejection of a duopoly that's not fit for purpose. I certainly don't follow Barcode's characterisation that people will vote SNP to "ensure a Labour goverment will keep its promises". In fact, an SNP commissioned Survation poll in recent days shows a decrease in trust of the Labour party following the referendum. Hardly surprising.

The SNP holding the balance of power in the UK will go down like a lead balloon in England, so no matter the Westminster outcome it will be uncharted territory. Personally I believe there is an inexorable direction of travel with Scotland - its just a question of when. It makes for interesting times, that's for sure.

[Alexia]

In other news, Cameron is now musing on the possibilities of inviting the embarrassing cousins, also known as the Northern Irish parties, to the debates.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... tv-debates

<JOKE DONE BEFORE BY OTHERS> It's a good job Channel 4 are involved this time around. We may need the 15-1 studio. </JOKE DONE BEFORE BY OTHERS>

[WillPS]

How the bloody hell is a 9-way debate going to work?