2015 UK Election

DTV · Mon 19 Jan, 2015 18.47

all new Phil wrote:My election prediction is that the greens will outpoll UKIP, both share of vote and number of seats.

That would be worth it just to see Farage and the Kippers reaction.

barcode · Mon 19 Jan, 2015 19.24

DTV wrote:
all new Phil wrote:My election prediction is that the greens will outpoll UKIP, both share of vote and number of seats.
That would be worth it just to see Farage and the Kippers reaction.

I get the feeling Ukip is on course to get at least three seats.

Alexia wrote:
barcode wrote:I dont like that English and welsh Green leader Natalie Bennett:, she reminds me of Tony Blair...
In what way?
Besides, you won't have to worry about her in Scotland. You have your own Green Party.

Its the way she talks and her manavisiomism?

Pete · Mon 19 Jan, 2015 19.39

Alexia wrote:
robschneider wrote:I hope the Greens don't get into the debates. The last thing we need is the tree-huggers taking a slice of the pie.
See now it's posts like this that make me think you're deliberately trolling us.

I'm tempted to agree

Alexia · Mon 19 Jan, 2015 19.57

barcode wrote:Its the way she talks and her manavisiomism?

Mannerisms?

You decide a person's merits based on their presentation?

May as well vote UKIP by that logic dude.

iSon · Mon 19 Jan, 2015 20.19

This election looks like already proving very interesting from a psephology point of view.

The latest Ashcroft poll has the Greens on 11%, only 4% away from UKIP and 2% ahead of the Lib Dems!

However, I doubt it will result in a massive loss of seats for the Lib Dems as they tend to bed down well in those seats they hold and give little reason for their constituents to vote another way - regardless of the national mood.

But, remains to be seen! Beware of poll surges as a result of national coverage. Despite the Green Party being excluded from the initial TV debate plans, they have received plenty of coverage as a result so recognition and intention to vote will currently be high.

Martin Phillp · Mon 19 Jan, 2015 21.14

iSon wrote:
But, remains to be seen! Beware of poll surges as a result of national coverage. Despite the Green Party being excluded from the initial TV debate plans, they have received plenty of coverage as a result so recognition and intention to vote will currently be high.

It may be enough for Caroline Lucas to save her Brighton seat, despite the Green mismanagement of Brighton & Hove council.

Alexia · Mon 19 Jan, 2015 21.35

Regarding Brighton Pavilion the Greens are probably going to hold it. The latest poll from Brighton Pavilion gives them a 9/10% lead over Labour and while the local Green led council may not be particularly popular, Caroline Lucas is very popular.
- DTV on page 14

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content ... Dec-14.pdf

bilky asko · Tue 20 Jan, 2015 12.09

all new Phil wrote:My election prediction is that the greens will outpoll UKIP, both share of vote and number of seats.

I can honestly say I have never met a person, even in passing, who has even intimated voting Green. I find that interesting because it means I've met more Marxists and Maoists than Green Party voters.

Personal curiosities aside, I can't see such a late surge by the Green party bearing much fruit. I certainly couldn't vote for such an anti-science party, opposed to nuclear energy and GMOs.

You certainly can't accuse the Green Party of being a clone of the current parties. Under the Green Party, I could legally join al-Qaeda in order to give my moral support (PD443). People wouldn't be punished for crimes (CJ203), but they would have to make reparations (CJ114), presumably by un-murdering someone in the case of murder.

In any case, it's worth giving their policies a read.

all new Phil · Tue 20 Jan, 2015 13.45

I don't think people will vote for them for their policies. I can't imagine a lot of their voters will even read them, to be honest. I just think they're going to pick up the anti-politics vote that the lib dems and now ukip have lost (or will have lost come election time), especially with their surely inevitable inclusion in the first of the tv debates.

bilky asko · Tue 20 Jan, 2015 14.28

all new Phil wrote:I don't think people will vote for them for their policies. I can't imagine a lot of their voters will even read them, to be honest. I just think they're going to pick up the anti-politics vote that the lib dems and now ukip have lost (or will have lost come election time), especially with their surely inevitable inclusion in the first of the tv debates.

Yes, a good proportion of their voters will have no idea about their policies. I think it would be surprising, however, if they made such gains after a mere few months in the spotlight. I'm going to make the opposite prediction that they will be behind UKIP in both seats and share.

DTV · Tue 20 Jan, 2015 14.30

Alexia wrote:Regarding Brighton Pavilion the Greens are probably going to hold it. The latest poll from Brighton Pavilion gives them a 9/10% lead over Labour and while the local Green led council may not be particularly popular, Caroline Lucas is very popular.
- DTV on page 14

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content ... Dec-14.pdf

While that poll may give Labour a lead in the overall election, when asked about how they'd vote in their own constituency (Table 6/7) the Greens get 38%, Labour 28%, Conservatives 21%, UKIP 8%, Lib Dems 5% and Others on 1%.