10pm.WillPS wrote:When will the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll be released then?
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Gavin Scott
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Square Eyes
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Have to say, that was a pretty accurate exit poll. Not far out at all.
So my prediction was comprehensively beaten. Having said that the opinion polls didn't get things that wrong on the day before - it was right putting the Conservatives on 36%, but Labour did two percantage points better ending on 29% in the end. But it's the Lib Dem result that was most adrift - although predicted by MORI in their poll previous to their final decleration - they end on 23%, four percantage points adrift of what the polls had been saying.
Ironically, the opinion polls have always tended to overstate Labour and understate the Conservatives and Lib Dems - this time around it has been the complete opposite with Labour doing better than expected. This of course is in party why we've ended with a hung parliament - the fall in Lib Dem vote should have been a chance for the Tories to claim an outright majority. But it seems that some parts of the country just weren't ready to go out and vote Conservative in any great numbers.
Interestingly, now we have the final voting figures in terms of share of vote, then the universal national swing calculations weren't too far out. If you run the figures through it would give the Tories 294 seats, Labour 265 and the Lib Dems 65. Conservatives have done a little better than those figures as they've won a few seats that were way down on their target list. But even though we've seen results vary from place to place - some showing a big Conservative swing, others not so - it goes to show that it isn't that bad at offering us an indication of exactly what happens before we know the actual result.
This was always going to be a hard election for David Cameron to win outright - even before they started slipping in the polls. The 1997 Labour landslide really changed the political landscape of the country and installed Labour in places where they've commanded healthy majorities ever since. Some of these majorities were so difficult to overturn - but if you look at the results closely, they came extremely close in many constituencies - missing out by just a few hundred votes. If a couple more of these had gone their way then we would be looking at a very different picture. So it's not a disappointment for the Conservatives as they have done extremely well in some areas they needed to win. But they didn't have enough people switching to them which is why David Cameron isn't in Number 10 right now.
The hung parliament trading will certainly be interesting, and will influence when we have our next general election. However when we do - there are a LOT of new marginals that really have been put on a knife edge and need very little to be overturned. This goes for all the parties and certainly the vote is much closer so our next election will give a much better chance of winning for all the parties involved. However, this could be insignifcant should voting reform have gone through.
Ironically, the opinion polls have always tended to overstate Labour and understate the Conservatives and Lib Dems - this time around it has been the complete opposite with Labour doing better than expected. This of course is in party why we've ended with a hung parliament - the fall in Lib Dem vote should have been a chance for the Tories to claim an outright majority. But it seems that some parts of the country just weren't ready to go out and vote Conservative in any great numbers.
Interestingly, now we have the final voting figures in terms of share of vote, then the universal national swing calculations weren't too far out. If you run the figures through it would give the Tories 294 seats, Labour 265 and the Lib Dems 65. Conservatives have done a little better than those figures as they've won a few seats that were way down on their target list. But even though we've seen results vary from place to place - some showing a big Conservative swing, others not so - it goes to show that it isn't that bad at offering us an indication of exactly what happens before we know the actual result.
This was always going to be a hard election for David Cameron to win outright - even before they started slipping in the polls. The 1997 Labour landslide really changed the political landscape of the country and installed Labour in places where they've commanded healthy majorities ever since. Some of these majorities were so difficult to overturn - but if you look at the results closely, they came extremely close in many constituencies - missing out by just a few hundred votes. If a couple more of these had gone their way then we would be looking at a very different picture. So it's not a disappointment for the Conservatives as they have done extremely well in some areas they needed to win. But they didn't have enough people switching to them which is why David Cameron isn't in Number 10 right now.
The hung parliament trading will certainly be interesting, and will influence when we have our next general election. However when we do - there are a LOT of new marginals that really have been put on a knife edge and need very little to be overturned. This goes for all the parties and certainly the vote is much closer so our next election will give a much better chance of winning for all the parties involved. However, this could be insignifcant should voting reform have gone through.
Good Lord!