Metropoll Watch
I have found one:
YouGov survey for ITV Wales Labour losing 5 seats with the tories picking up 4.
Scotsman/YouGov There is talk there will be no change to the seats.
YouGov survey for ITV Wales Labour losing 5 seats with the tories picking up 4.
- Labour - 35%
- Conservative - 27%
- Liberal Democrat - 23%
- Plaid Cymru 10%
Scotsman/YouGov There is talk there will be no change to the seats.
- Labour - 37%
- Liberal Democrat - 22%
- SNP - 21%
- Conservative - 17%
While we await more figures from the official pollsters, I've just received a viewdata message from Dimblebot who has informed me that we have the figures from our Election Eve Opinion Metropoll:
As you can see, it shows a large surge for Labour and if an electorate of Metropoll members were voting in this election then it would be a massive success for Gordon Brown with an overall majority in the 80s.
The Tories will be disappointed at being pushed into third and the Lib Dems will be crestfallen that they've lost the lead that they've been managing to maintain over the last few weeks.
Don't forget to vote in the official Metropoll Exit Poll and we'll see just how representative our membership is. Normal polls resume shortly...
As you can see, it shows a large surge for Labour and if an electorate of Metropoll members were voting in this election then it would be a massive success for Gordon Brown with an overall majority in the 80s.
The Tories will be disappointed at being pushed into third and the Lib Dems will be crestfallen that they've lost the lead that they've been managing to maintain over the last few weeks.
Don't forget to vote in the official Metropoll Exit Poll and we'll see just how representative our membership is. Normal polls resume shortly...
Good Lord!
Just seems mad that people are changing their mind so much on this one. I think there could well be an unprecedented surge for one of the parties (I'm gonna say LibDems but that's optimistic on my part), but I think (and hope) it'll be a Hung Parliament with a LibLab pact.
As you say, the exit polls should give a clearer picture. Looking forward to your thoughts/predictions this evening.
As you say, the exit polls should give a clearer picture. Looking forward to your thoughts/predictions this evening.
I think we'll see between a 14-seat short Conservative hung parliament, and a 10-20 seat majority government.
There are just far too many people disillusioned with Labour to put them in again - and there are many in rural areas who traditionally vote Tory who won't necessarily have been part of the polling conducted.
There are just far too many people disillusioned with Labour to put them in again - and there are many in rural areas who traditionally vote Tory who won't necessarily have been part of the polling conducted.
More figures for you to digest...
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YouGov for The Sun
It would appear then that the Lib Dem drop in last night's poll was just a rogue - and I'm sure Nick Clegg will be pleased. If true then it shows an amazing acheivement - he may have got his poll surge from a couple of TV debates but the impressive part of this is that he's held on to the majority of people that switched there - and we're a fickle bunch. They've also had more scrutiny than ever before - but they also have a lot of "anti-politics" supporters who like his stance simply because he isn't "the other two".
For Labour and Conservatives though, finely balanced really and although the Tories have a seven point lead, this wouldn't be enough to give them the decisive victory they're after.
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Populus for The Times
So this is a fairly good poll for the Conservatives as it shows them in a fairly dominant position while the Lib Dems and Labour battle it out for second place. However, it's not enough for an overall majority. But if the Tory share is being understated or we take into account margin of error then it could easily give them a slim majority.
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Angus Reid for Political Betting
Now I'm sure this poll is the one the Conservatives would like to believe more than the others. Having said that, Angus Reid has been a bit of an outsider with its figures not generally agreeing other pollsters - although their trends (in terms of going up and down) for each party have been in agreement. After all - this pollster is asking real people just like the rest so it could be giving a realistic reflection of Labour's popularity.
Anyway, 11 seats short of a majority is rather impressive considering recent polling and could easily transform into a workable majority. Though I can't believe I'm saying that predicting 11 short of a majority is impressive for the Tories when a few months back everything was pointing towards a majority of 100 for David Cameron.
In terms of seats, this is still a good poll for the Lib Dems, but Nick Clegg won't like the fact it puts the Tories so close to a majority. As much as he says not, he wants a decent popular vote with a big say in a hung parliament. A majority from either party could put at risk his desire for voting reform.
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YouGov for The Sun
- Conservative - 35% (nc)
- Labour - 28% (-2)
- Liberal Democrat - 28% (+4)
- Others - 9% (-2)
- Conservative - 277 seats (+79)
- Labour - 258 seats (-98)
- Liberal Democrat - 82 seats (+20)
- Others - 33 seats (+3)
It would appear then that the Lib Dem drop in last night's poll was just a rogue - and I'm sure Nick Clegg will be pleased. If true then it shows an amazing acheivement - he may have got his poll surge from a couple of TV debates but the impressive part of this is that he's held on to the majority of people that switched there - and we're a fickle bunch. They've also had more scrutiny than ever before - but they also have a lot of "anti-politics" supporters who like his stance simply because he isn't "the other two".
For Labour and Conservatives though, finely balanced really and although the Tories have a seven point lead, this wouldn't be enough to give them the decisive victory they're after.
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Populus for The Times
- Conservative - 37% (+1)
- Labour - 28% (+1)
- Liberal Democrat - 27% (-1)
- Others - 8% (-1)
- Conservative - 296 seats (+98)
- Labour - 246 seats (-110)
- Liberal Democrat - 77 seats (+15)
- Others - 31 seats (+1)
So this is a fairly good poll for the Conservatives as it shows them in a fairly dominant position while the Lib Dems and Labour battle it out for second place. However, it's not enough for an overall majority. But if the Tory share is being understated or we take into account margin of error then it could easily give them a slim majority.
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Angus Reid for Political Betting
- Conservative - 36% (+1)
- Labour - 24% (+1)
- Liberal Democrat - 29% (nc)
- Others - 11% (-2)
- Conservative - 315 seats (+117)
- Labour - 211 seats (-145)
- Liberal Democrat - 92 seats (+30)
- Others - 32 seats (+2)
Now I'm sure this poll is the one the Conservatives would like to believe more than the others. Having said that, Angus Reid has been a bit of an outsider with its figures not generally agreeing other pollsters - although their trends (in terms of going up and down) for each party have been in agreement. After all - this pollster is asking real people just like the rest so it could be giving a realistic reflection of Labour's popularity.
Anyway, 11 seats short of a majority is rather impressive considering recent polling and could easily transform into a workable majority. Though I can't believe I'm saying that predicting 11 short of a majority is impressive for the Tories when a few months back everything was pointing towards a majority of 100 for David Cameron.
In terms of seats, this is still a good poll for the Lib Dems, but Nick Clegg won't like the fact it puts the Tories so close to a majority. As much as he says not, he wants a decent popular vote with a big say in a hung parliament. A majority from either party could put at risk his desire for voting reform.
Good Lord!
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Square Eyes
- Posts: 630
- Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 13.38
It's going to be an interesting few weeks in politics regardless of the outcome.
Is it all or nothing for Cameron ? If the Conservatives don't get to form a government wonder if will he hang on to his job ? Who is the Tory successor ? Is it back to William Hague ?
Does anything short of an overall majority make it untenable for Brown ? Will he cling on to form a coalition government and then be shortly replaced afterwards or resign ?
I think the only certainty in all this is that Nick Clegg will be around as his party leader after the election.
Is it all or nothing for Cameron ? If the Conservatives don't get to form a government wonder if will he hang on to his job ? Who is the Tory successor ? Is it back to William Hague ?
Does anything short of an overall majority make it untenable for Brown ? Will he cling on to form a coalition government and then be shortly replaced afterwards or resign ?
I think the only certainty in all this is that Nick Clegg will be around as his party leader after the election.
They keep on coming...
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Harris for Daily Mail
Another finely balanced result which seems to agree with the YouGov figures on the whole. Even though Labour has increase three in this poll, it just brings them into line of what the other polls have been indicating for the last few days so it's by no means a sign of a Brown bounce.
Although there are some variations in what we've seen so far, the polls are mainly pointing in the same direction. I'll give my thoughts once we've got some more figures - hopefully from ComRes soon and the big guns like ICM and MORI - who will be part of the exit poll team for BBC/ITV/Sky.
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Harris for Daily Mail
- Conservative - 35% (-1)
- Labour - 29% (+3)
- Liberal Democrat - 27% (-1)
- Others - 9% (-1)
- Conservative - 273 seats (+75)
- Labour - 266 seats (-90)
- Liberal Democrat - 78 seats (+16)
- Others - 33 seats (+3)
Another finely balanced result which seems to agree with the YouGov figures on the whole. Even though Labour has increase three in this poll, it just brings them into line of what the other polls have been indicating for the last few days so it's by no means a sign of a Brown bounce.
Although there are some variations in what we've seen so far, the polls are mainly pointing in the same direction. I'll give my thoughts once we've got some more figures - hopefully from ComRes soon and the big guns like ICM and MORI - who will be part of the exit poll team for BBC/ITV/Sky.
Good Lord!
ICM for The Guardian
So a boost for the Tories again from ICM but it puts them largely in to line with what we've seen from the other major pollsters so nothing too ground-breaking.
It appears that MORI are publishing tomorrow as they've still been doing fieldwork right up until this late hour apparently. Not much point in releasing it tomorrow as it won't get in any of the papers and won't have the "prediction" element that these other polls have had by having them released this evening.
- Conservative - 36% (+3)
- Labour - 28% (nc)
- Liberal Democrat - 26% (-2)
- Others - 10% (-1)
- Conservative - 285 seats (+87)
- Labour - 257 seats (-99)
- Liberal Democrat - 76 seats (+14)
- Others - 32 seats (+2)
So a boost for the Tories again from ICM but it puts them largely in to line with what we've seen from the other major pollsters so nothing too ground-breaking.
It appears that MORI are publishing tomorrow as they've still been doing fieldwork right up until this late hour apparently. Not much point in releasing it tomorrow as it won't get in any of the papers and won't have the "prediction" element that these other polls have had by having them released this evening.
Good Lord!