Metropoll Watch
Finally we have ComRes.
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ComRes for ITV News / The Independent
So the Conservatives remain as the largest party. However a drop of one point in their vote has seen their seats drop by 21 which makes the idea of a majority a more distant one. However, once again it's all margin of error stuff and the polls tonight haven't really pointed to a common theme so things aren't much clearer at this stage. Which makes it rather exciting, it does really seem that we'll go into polling day with absolutely no idea of just which way the vote will go.
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ComRes for ITV News / The Independent
- Conservative - 37% (-1)
- Labour - 29% (+1)
- Liberal Democrat - 26% (+1)
- Others - 8% (-1)
- Conservative - 290 seats (+92)
- Labour - 254 seats (-102)
- Liberal Democrat - 76 seats (+14)
- Others - 30 seats (nc)
So the Conservatives remain as the largest party. However a drop of one point in their vote has seen their seats drop by 21 which makes the idea of a majority a more distant one. However, once again it's all margin of error stuff and the polls tonight haven't really pointed to a common theme so things aren't much clearer at this stage. Which makes it rather exciting, it does really seem that we'll go into polling day with absolutely no idea of just which way the vote will go.
Good Lord!
I wonder if the down-to-the-wire nature of this election is likely to mobilise apathetic voters who would vote LibDem but usually cant be arsed?
The opinion polls dont really allow for much of that.
The opinion polls dont really allow for much of that.
We start our penultimate Metropoll Watch with a YouGov shocker...
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YouGov for The Sun
So firstly a big fall in Lib Dem support according to this poll. We haven't seen a movement as large as this since the poll after the very first leader's debate. Cleggmania over, or simply an outsider? Difficult to tell as we don't have anything else to compare it against. It would however be extremely disappointing for the Lib Dems if it were the case seeing as they've held up so well all through the campaign - especially as many expected them to be in this position 2 weeks ago.
The Tories need to be concerned for two reasons. If this poll isn't an outsider then it shows that potential Lib Dem voters are switching back to Labour which gives them every chance of being the largest party. They will be extremely disappointed not to pick up anything up. Secondly, a rise in the Labour share of the vote will make their life more difficult - even if they gain a couple of points between now and the close at polling day.
Won't say too much more because this poll could just be a rogue - for example, a 2 point increase in the "others" share is interesting at this time as it's usually where people make up their mind and plump for one of the three parties and indeed people who had considered a marginal party tend to switch at the last minute after getting cold feet.
I believe the only comparison we'll have tonight will be from ComRes - whose data is a day behind that of YouGov's - so it may not agree with YouGov's findings but that doesn't mean we should disregard what this poll says.
Most of the pollsters are saving everything for tomorrow and will leave us with an array of figures to reflect on as we think about going out and voting.
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YouGov for The Sun
- Conservative - 35% (nc)
- Labour - 30% (+2)
- Liberal Democrat - 24% (-4)
- Others - 11% (+2)
- Conservative - 262 seats (+64)
- Labour - 287 seats (-69)
- Liberal Democrat - 70 seats (+8)
- Others - 31 seats (+1)
So firstly a big fall in Lib Dem support according to this poll. We haven't seen a movement as large as this since the poll after the very first leader's debate. Cleggmania over, or simply an outsider? Difficult to tell as we don't have anything else to compare it against. It would however be extremely disappointing for the Lib Dems if it were the case seeing as they've held up so well all through the campaign - especially as many expected them to be in this position 2 weeks ago.
The Tories need to be concerned for two reasons. If this poll isn't an outsider then it shows that potential Lib Dem voters are switching back to Labour which gives them every chance of being the largest party. They will be extremely disappointed not to pick up anything up. Secondly, a rise in the Labour share of the vote will make their life more difficult - even if they gain a couple of points between now and the close at polling day.
Won't say too much more because this poll could just be a rogue - for example, a 2 point increase in the "others" share is interesting at this time as it's usually where people make up their mind and plump for one of the three parties and indeed people who had considered a marginal party tend to switch at the last minute after getting cold feet.
I believe the only comparison we'll have tonight will be from ComRes - whose data is a day behind that of YouGov's - so it may not agree with YouGov's findings but that doesn't mean we should disregard what this poll says.
Most of the pollsters are saving everything for tomorrow and will leave us with an array of figures to reflect on as we think about going out and voting.
Good Lord!
You might get de ja vu with this one...
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ComRes for ITV News / The Independent
So no change from yesterday's figures from ComRes, However if there has been a fall in Lib Dem support in the last 24 hours for whatever reason then this won't show in this poll. ComRes fieldwork for this poll was carried out Sunday and Monday so the bank holiday effect may well have a bearing on why the figures have remained the same. However, it shows the healthy lead for the Tories still in place and of course if replicated on polling day would result in a hung parliament - but it's always worth remembering the 2% margin of error that goes either way.
I believe that's all the polls we will be seeing tonight. It will be a mammoth polling day tomorrow - a lot will probably start releasing their figures fairly early and I expect all the main pollsters will have figures so it will give one final indication of just what to expect. Once we've got the data, we'll reveal our Metropoll of Polls and see what happens when we put all the big pollster results together and we'll compare that with Dimblebot's exit poll data of course.
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ComRes for ITV News / The Independent
- Conservative - 37% (nc)
- Labour - 29% (nc)
- Liberal Democrat - 26% (nc)
- Others - 8% (nc)
- Conservative - 290 seats (+92)
- Labour - 254 seats (-102)
- Liberal Democrat - 76 seats (+14)
- Others - 30 seats (nc)
So no change from yesterday's figures from ComRes, However if there has been a fall in Lib Dem support in the last 24 hours for whatever reason then this won't show in this poll. ComRes fieldwork for this poll was carried out Sunday and Monday so the bank holiday effect may well have a bearing on why the figures have remained the same. However, it shows the healthy lead for the Tories still in place and of course if replicated on polling day would result in a hung parliament - but it's always worth remembering the 2% margin of error that goes either way.
I believe that's all the polls we will be seeing tonight. It will be a mammoth polling day tomorrow - a lot will probably start releasing their figures fairly early and I expect all the main pollsters will have figures so it will give one final indication of just what to expect. Once we've got the data, we'll reveal our Metropoll of Polls and see what happens when we put all the big pollster results together and we'll compare that with Dimblebot's exit poll data of course.
Good Lord!
OPsos Mon polls of marginal seats
what would that result in?
- Conservative - 36% ( +1)
- Labour - 36% (-2)
- Liberal Democrat - 20% (-1)
what would that result in?
An unexpected poll this evening from Harris...
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Harris for Metro
So it's one of the Tories better showings, which kind of goes against what we've seen so far today. Although the changes are based on the last Harris figures which were from a few days ago so that's why the changes are bigger than the daily polls. This poll gives the Conservatives a dominant position within a hung parliament as the largest party, and also a Lab-Lib coalition would only total 320 seats which means they would have to bring the nationalists on board to have any chance of forming a government.
I guess the biggest thing to read from this poll is not the figures themselves, but the changes - it's bad news for the Lib Dems but Harris did have them in a very strong 32% last time - just behind the Tories by a single point and 8 points in front of Labour so this poll could just be a correction of that.
Still though, it's another poll that doesn't make a prediction easy.
Ahead of the final polls tomorrow, the result as it stands in our Metropoll Poll of Polls (Latest results from all the pollsters we've been following in this thread) is:
Metropoll of Polls - Tuesday 4th May 2010
So the polls indicate that it's finely balanced if we rely on universal national swing - more an indicator than a precise prediction. I do think it's very difficult to call but I will be offering my own personal thoughts on Wednesday evening as to what we could expect.
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Harris for Metro
- Conservative - 36% (+3)
- Labour - 26% (+2)
- Liberal Democrat - 28% (-4)
- Others - 10% (-1)
- Conservative - 299 seats (+101)
- Labour - 236 seats (-120)
- Liberal Democrat - 84 seats (+22)
- Others - 31 seats (+1)
So it's one of the Tories better showings, which kind of goes against what we've seen so far today. Although the changes are based on the last Harris figures which were from a few days ago so that's why the changes are bigger than the daily polls. This poll gives the Conservatives a dominant position within a hung parliament as the largest party, and also a Lab-Lib coalition would only total 320 seats which means they would have to bring the nationalists on board to have any chance of forming a government.
I guess the biggest thing to read from this poll is not the figures themselves, but the changes - it's bad news for the Lib Dems but Harris did have them in a very strong 32% last time - just behind the Tories by a single point and 8 points in front of Labour so this poll could just be a correction of that.
Still though, it's another poll that doesn't make a prediction easy.
Ahead of the final polls tomorrow, the result as it stands in our Metropoll Poll of Polls (Latest results from all the pollsters we've been following in this thread) is:
Metropoll of Polls - Tuesday 4th May 2010
- Conservative - 35%
- Labour - 28%
- Liberal Democrat - 27%
- Others - 10%
- Conservative - 274 seats (+76)
- Labour - 264 seats (-92)
- Liberal Democrat - 81 seats (+19)
- Others - 31 seats (+1)
So the polls indicate that it's finely balanced if we rely on universal national swing - more an indicator than a precise prediction. I do think it's very difficult to call but I will be offering my own personal thoughts on Wednesday evening as to what we could expect.
Good Lord!
If that was uniform across the country then it would result in Labour winning the general election with a wafer thin majority. However, that's not the way marginal polls work and I wouldn't even like to hazard a guess as to what picture that would leave us with. That's because around 400 seats are safe and will go to the incumbent parties - it's the marginal seats that the parties who want to win are concerned about as they have the power to tip the result from one way or another. Based on those figures I would say *PERSONALLY* it would be just enough for a Conservative win, possibly small majority - but it's difficult to tell with the Lid Dems still doing fairly well in the national polls.barcode wrote:OPsos Mon polls of marginal seats
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/general-election/ ( right hand side )
- Conservative - 36% ( +1)
- Labour - 36% (-2)
- Liberal Democrat - 20% (-1)
what would that result in?
Good Lord!
UPDATE: I'm using a slightly modified seat calculation which has changed things ever so slightly - not massively, but that's why "others" are doing better in the seat calculator. It better represents the increase in SNP vote which is why.
It begins...
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Opinium for Daily Express
So a bit of a boost for the Tories according to Opinium, but no last minute surge that would indicate they're assured a majority.
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TNS-BRMB
But TNS-BRMB disagrees with what we have from Opinium. It shows the Conservative vote slipping slightly with Labour unchanged and a slight fall for the Lib Dems too - but still in a fairly strong position when this polls only suggests a 6% gap between the parties. It also has Labour as (just) the largest party in a hung parliament.
LOTS more polls to come this evening and I expect it will be extremely difficult to spot any obvious trends. However, YouGov will have interviewed twice as many people for this poll - but 2,000 out of the voting public doesn't exactly mean it'll be any more reliable.
It begins...
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Opinium for Daily Express
- Conservative - 35% (+2)
- Labour - 27% (-1)
- Liberal Democrat - 26% (-1)
- Others - 12% (nc)
- Conservative - 284 seats (+86)
- Labour - 256 seats (-100)
- Liberal Democrat - 77 seats (+15)
- Others - 33 seats (+3)
So a bit of a boost for the Tories according to Opinium, but no last minute surge that would indicate they're assured a majority.
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TNS-BRMB
- Conservative - 33% (-1)
- Labour - 27% (nc)
- Liberal Democrat - 29% (-1)
- Others - 11% (+2)
- Conservative - 255 seats (+57)
- Labour - 265 seats (-91)
- Liberal Democrat - 97 seats (+35)
- Others - 33 seats (+3)
But TNS-BRMB disagrees with what we have from Opinium. It shows the Conservative vote slipping slightly with Labour unchanged and a slight fall for the Lib Dems too - but still in a fairly strong position when this polls only suggests a 6% gap between the parties. It also has Labour as (just) the largest party in a hung parliament.
LOTS more polls to come this evening and I expect it will be extremely difficult to spot any obvious trends. However, YouGov will have interviewed twice as many people for this poll - but 2,000 out of the voting public doesn't exactly mean it'll be any more reliable.
Good Lord!