Metropoll Watch

[Jamesypoo]

Just thought I'd let you know, it seems a certain former member has clearly been fiddling with aspect ratios in Manchester once more...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... 0_04_2010/

Go to 19.23

Tsk at me having to scroll through that. http://bbc.co.uk/i/s62l5/?t=19m26s would have let me use my time much more wisely.

[iSon]

Today's YouGov poll is out early ahead of the election debate. Little point in releasing the figures afterwards as it would be irrelevant. Not sure if any other pollsters are due to do the same or just wait until tomorrow with fresh data. Anyway...
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YouGov for The Sun

• Conservative - 34% (+1)
• Labour - 29% (+2)
• Liberal Democrat - 28% (-3)
• Others - 9% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 253 seats (+55)
• Labour - 279 seats (-77)
• Liberal Democrat - 87 seats (+25)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 47 seats short

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So interestingly it shows a dip for the Lib Dems and puts them back in third place. Majority of YouGov data will have been taken from the stories in the Telegraph and the like so I wonder if the press has had an impact - or whether it's just a blip. Of course with the next debate tonight, it could all change again. I don't think we'll see a massive shift due to the fact that the sheer number of people won't be watching this time around. But then they may know and the party leaders may try and create an "event" so that it catches people's eyes in the news bulletins later tonight and tomorrow.

Let's be honest though, based on the figures above, it's still pretty much an even split.

[James H]

Just thought I'd let you know, it seems a certain former member has clearly been fiddling with aspect ratios in Manchester once more...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... 0_04_2010/

Go to 19.23

Tsk at me having to scroll through that. http://bbc.co.uk/i/s62l5/?t=19m26s would have let me use my time much more wisely.

Well THANKS but I didn't know how to do that.

If you'd like to show me I have a bourbon cream with your name on it (and mine - they're the same, geddit?!)

[Pete]

Well THANKS but I didn't know how to do that.

If you'd like to show me I have a bourbon cream with your name on it (and mine - they're the same, geddit?!)

click the programme information link and a box will appear to the right, you have to pick current time to get the snazzy little link like that and link to hot things like this http://bbc.co.uk/i/s8lhc/?t=15m42s

or maybe not

[James H]

Many thanks and a special hymagumba custard cream will be coming your way.

[iSon]

So the first proper post debate poll is out and it doesn't show a great deal of change, but will surely be disappointing for both Labour and the Conservatives considering it was generally perceived that both David Cameron and Gordon Brown did better in last night's debate than previously. Whether things will begin to change over the next few days, who knows - but I think the final debate could well be crucial. Either it will see a record audience and really present a game changer, or fatigue will set in and voters may just resort to form.
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YouGov for The Sun

• Conservative - 34% (nc)
• Labour - 29% (nc)
• Liberal Democrat - 29% (+1)
• Others - 8% (-1)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 250 seats (+52)
• Labour - 276 seats (-80)
• Liberal Democrat - 93 seats (+31)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 50 seats short

[barcode]

even on that poll result, is it possible Conservative - Liberal Democrat could get into bed?

[WillPS]

Possible but it's extremely unlikely that the Conservatives will make as many concessions as a desperate Labour would.

[Jovis]

get into bed

I'm not a fan of this expression when used in the context of politics. Images of Cameron and Clegg in slippers and a dressing gown come to mind. Still, at least it's better than images of Cameron and Clegg not in slippers and a dressing gown.

[iSon]

Another poll has come out which is in tomorrow's Daily Mail. Most of the data comes from last night and today.
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Harris for Daily Mail

• Conservative - 34% (+3)
• Labour - 26% (nc)
• Liberal Democrat - 29% (-1)
• Others - 11% (-2)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 275 seats (+77)
• Labour - 246 seats (-110)
• Liberal Democrat - 98 seats (+36)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 51 seats short

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So this shows a bit of a difference compared to YouGov, as it shows the Tories as being the largest party after regaining a bit of ground from their previous poll a few days ago. So a bit more of a positive result for the Conservatives - however, the strong Lib Dem showing still means they've got a mountain to climb to win an overall majority. But if they could convert a few of those Lib Dem voters then they might just be able to do it.

Anyway, a mass of polls expected tomorrow which should give a clearer picture and allow us to spot any trends as to whether the Lib Dems or holding on or whether they could be falling away.

[iSon]

A couple of polls out early for the Sunday papers tomorrow. Interesting results, however you look at it. Here are the headline figures...
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ICM for Sunday Telegraph

• Conservative - 35% (+2)
• Labour - 26% (-2)
• Liberal Democrat - 31% (+1)
• Others - 8% (-1)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 276 seats (+78)
• Labour - 235 seats (-121)
• Liberal Democrat - 108 seats (+46)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 50 seats short

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IComRes for Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday

• Conservative - 34% (-1)
• Labour - 28% (+3)
• Liberal Democrat - 29% (+2)
• Others - 9% (-4)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 258 seats (+60)
• Labour - 268 seats (-88)
• Liberal Democrat - 93 seats (+31)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 58 seats short

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So the ICM poll is good news for the Conservatives as it shows a bit of comeback for them, and is one of few recent polls to put them as the largest party. Labour will be pleased to see a three point increase in the ComRes poll - which although it has them as the largest party - it's still finely balanced.

Either way though, both polls paint a very good picture for the Lib Dems - not only holding their recent surge but gaining a few points back that they had dropped recently.

But with news of Gordon Brown apparently about to turn up the pressure on David Cameron, could that have any effect on the way the polls are going? It seems both parties are hoping to draw on the negatives of each and promote their positives in the hope that they can win votes from each other's supporters and may be turn around a few Lib Dem converters as well. It's largely seen that the Lib Dem support is "soft" so could fall away with enough persuasion. However, if the polls continue to show high Lib Dem support over the next couple of days then the main parties will have to consider either going for the jugular in a high risk strategy or accept the fact that they may have start thinking about potential deals with Nick Clegg. Based on the vote share, it could be up to him to decide which party will he support in either a coalition or when it comes to voting in the House of Commons.