Metropoll Watch

[WillPS]

That's why he's set out out his demands for forming an alliance? Right!

Clegg would be over-the-moon with a hung parliament.

The demands are merely PR.

Clegg and Brown have both got "narcissist" written all over them, in my opinion. Gordon won't tolerate being upstaged by the young and enterprising Nick all the time, and Nick will implode after a few weeks of being Gordon's poodle.

The government just isn't big enough for both of them.

Absolute bollocks. The Liberal Democrats would be very happy to negotiate themselves a position where they can implement said policies and implement PR so that they can sustain their position in the future.

If it doesn't last more than a year before another dissolution is necessary - so be it, the Lib Dems will have effectively guaranteed their position from then on.

[Chie]

Aren't you at all bothered what effect this little experiment will have on the price of sterling and interest rates in the real world?

At least you won't be able to blame the Tories, I guess. Although I imagine the excuse will be something like "it would have been twice as bad if the Tories had won" or "we're being screwed, but at least the nice people are doing it and not those nasty, vile, disgusting Tory Toffs".

Oh well. Whatever happens happens.

[WillPS]

Aren't you at all bothered what effect this little experiment will have on the price of sterling and interest rates in the real world?

At least you won't be able to blame the Tories, I guess. Although I imagine the excuse will be something like "it would have been twice as bad if the Tories had won" or "we're being screwed, but at least the nice people are doing it and not those nasty, vile, disgusting Tory Toffs".

Oh well. Whatever happens happens.

If the price of a fair, democratic future for our generations to come is a brief stutter in the pound-sterling (which, let's face it, is a sitting duck anyway) then it's a price I'm quite willing to pay. As it happens, I think this whole financial instability thing is little more than a scare-tactic that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy (see Northern Rock). Our European neighbours (some of which have not seen a majority government in decades) seem to be doing just fine.

My dislike for tory-boys doesn't really come in to it; I am of the opinion that the elected duopoly currently held by Labour and the Conservatives has done far more damage than an alliance-government formed as a result of a hung parliament could ever do.

[Chie]

Our European neighbours are doing just fine because they've had coalition governments for decades. It's a bit different to electing a functioning hung parliament for essentially the first time bang in the middle of a very serious financial crisis.

My dislike for tory-boys doesn't really come in to it; I am of the opinion that the elected duopoly currently held by Labour and the Conservatives has done far more damage than an alliance-government formed as a result of a hung parliament could ever do.

There's only one way to find out.

[lukey]

I really can't see this Clegg effect working for the Lib Dems in the long-run. The debates are probably an expectations game as much as anything, and the combination of Cameron really not coming across well and Clegg exceeding the baseline of expectations has worked great this last week, but can only set him up for a fall come the next one, where unless the Lib Dems try to manage expectations very quickly, I wouldn't be surprised if the effect was quickly blunted.

There's also the issue that he probably peaked too quickly. I can't see an easy way of this momentum being carried forward for another fortnight, although the big two's pitiful shift in tone to 'oh, he's a bit shifty though' will probably only backfire for them, seeing as it's already sent Cameron into an even weirder manic parroting of change, real change, and the spectrum of change therein.

[WillPS]

I don't know.

Perhaps if Clegg had 'got lucky' in the last debate, but I honestly don't think he was lucky. The Nick Clegg I saw on that programme was performing exactly the same way I saw him perform a year ago at Sheffield Union. Although I'm sure Clegg receives some coaching for these things, I honestly don't think he and his party is 'strategised' to the extent of Labour and the Conservatives. If he just continues in exactly the same way, I think the public will appreciate his consistency - if Blair and Cameron change their tune as they have already indicated they will, I think that choice will backfire.

[Alexia]

if Blair and Cameron

[iSon]

Tonight's polls still place us firmly in hung parliament territory. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives doing particularly well based on universal national swing. YouGov still has the Lib Dems leading - and further increasing their lead, which within the margin of error could actually put them ahead in terms of votes.

YouGov for The Sun

• Conservative - 31% (-2)
• Labour - 26% (-1)
• Liberal Democrat - 34% (+3)
• Others - 9% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 228 seats (+30)
• Labour - 246 seats (-110)
• Liberal Democrat - 143 seats (+81)
• Others - 33 seats (+3)

Hung Parliament - Labour 80 seats short
______________________________________________________________________________________________

Populus for The Times

• Conservative - 32%
• Labour - 28%
• Liberal Democrat - 31%
• Others - 9%

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 236 seats (+38)
• Labour - 273 seats (-83)
• Liberal Democrat - 110 seats (+48)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 53 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting.com

• Conservative - 32% (nc)
• Labour - 23% (-1)
• Liberal Democrat - 33% (+1)
• Others - 12% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 257 seats (+59)
• Labour - 210 seats (-146)
• Liberal Democrat - 150 seats (+88)
• Others - 33 seats (+3)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 69 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

I think the thing to take into account at this point is that we're seeing some grim predictions for the Tories who look like they're not due to gain many seats. However, of course, universal national swing is only good enough as it's a uniform prediction. I still think regional factors and the desire to vote out Labour in some parts of the country will give the Tories a better showing, even if the Lib Dems manage such a high vote share.

But, I think the nail has well and truly been hit on the head by our Lukey (and many others) that believe Nick Clegg won't be able to sustain such a positive poll lead. Having said that, many people said that by Saturday or Sunday we'd begin to see them return to low 20s. I do think that Nick Clegg's positive performance on the first debate has shown people that there IS an alternative to the main two parties and they're reflecting that based on voting intention.

The second debate will be interesting because now, like Cameron, commentators are bringing Clegg down saying that he has the most to lose and will inevitably take a dent in the polls even if he puts in a decent performance. Though, with the feelings of the voting public at the moment, talking down the Lib Dems may make them further want to give them support - or of course people may realise that they don't like the policies and the novelty could wear off. The key will be whether Cameron and Brown decide to argue, because again that could be seen as a turn off and only further goes to underline Nick Clegg's idea that neither the Tories or Labour can offer change.

Veeeeeeery interesting.

[Square Eyes]

There is a ComRes poll tonight for The Independent / ITV News tonight, showing a 9% lead for the Tories.

Tories 35%, Lib Dems 26%, Labour 26%.

These polls are all over the place.

[Sput]

Anyone here ever been polled? *Ahem*

[iSon]

Ahem, Square Eyes, you're on my turf. Anyway, here's the science:

ComRes for ITV News / The Independent

• Conservative - 35% (+3)
• Labour - 26% (-2)
• Liberal Democrat - 26% (-2)
• Others - 13% (+1)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 291 seats (+93)
• Labour - 245 seats (-111)
• Liberal Democrat - 83 seats (+21)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 35 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

I typed out a lengthy additional bit here but it was lost due to the internet connection going down at the WRONG MOMENT. But anyway, could it be a blip or the start of a trend away from the Lib Dems? I think it's all academic because even if it drips away then we still have the next debate to come which although it won't be watched by the same numbers - has the ability to influence people one way or another. If the poll does pan out then it shows a good trend for the Tories as they could win with a majority as long as they convert a chunk of those Lib Dem voters and keep them away from Labour.