Metropoll Watch

Please Respond
User avatar
iSon
Moderator
Posts: 1634
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 23.24
Location: London

Well seeing as the opinion polls appear to be getting interesting, I thought it was time we gave a little more discussion to how the opinions are going. We're getting updates on a daily basis and different pollsters use different methodology - however over the last couple of days it has shown a shift to the Lib Dems. But can it last? Anyway here at the latest figures...

ComRes for Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday
  • Conservative - 31%
  • Labour - 27%
  • Liberal Democrat - 29%
  • Others - 13%
Based on UNS (Universal National Swing)
  • Conservative - 238 seats (+40)
  • Labour - 278 seats (-78)
  • Liberal Democrat - 103 seats (+41)
  • Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 48 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

ICM for Sunday Telegraph
  • Conservative - 34%
  • Labour - 29%
  • Liberal Democrat - 27%
  • Others - 10%
Based on UNS
  • Conservative - 257 seats (+59)
  • Labour - 281 seats (-75)
  • Liberal Democrat - 81 seats (+19)
  • Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 45 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

BPIX for Mail on Sunday
  • Conservative - 31%
  • Labour - 28%
  • Liberal Democrat - 32%
  • Others - 9%
Based on UNS
  • Conservative - 224 seats (+26)
  • Labour - 273 seats (-83)
  • Liberal Democrat - 122 seats (+60)
  • Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 53 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

YouGov for Sunday Times
  • Conservative - 33%
  • Labour - 30%
  • Liberal Democrat - 29%
  • Others - 8%
Based on UNS
  • Conservative - 239 seats (+41)
  • Labour - 287 seats (-69)
  • Liberal Democrat - 93 seats (+31)
  • Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 39 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

So a bit of a variation but the resounding pattern is that the Lib Dems are doing particularly well at the moment and this would give them a very strong showing come election day if it continued. However, a note of caution - the predictions based on universal national swing tends to fall down a little with such a large Lib Dem share as most swring predictions are only ever based on swings between Labour and the Tories - but it offers an indication that the Lib Dems could hold the balance of power.

Hope some of you find this interesting
Good Lord!
Top
User avatar
lukey
Posts: 587
Joined: Thu 25 May, 2006 01.11
Location: London
Contact:
Contact lukey

Watching the polls just makes me realise what fickle arses the electorate at large are.

I would agree with the consensus that Nick Clegg's performance on Thursday was best, but that was it - the performance. There was no profound legislative programme set out, just a little more charisma, and if being looked in the eye and having a politician repeat your name is the sum total of the voting public's wants and needs, then it's all woefully depressing.

I would be very surprised if this bump translates into a noticeable swing to the Lib Dems come May. To clarify, this isn't any staunch Tory or Labour support on my part, just as its not a criticism of the Lib Dems or Clegg, but rather it just seems our expectations are so ridiculously low, no wonder politics is so middle of the road and the alliterative pitches aimed at the lowest common denominator.
Top
User avatar
Ebeneezer Scrooge
Posts: 326
Joined: Tue 23 Sep, 2003 13.53
Location: Scrooge Towers

On the other hand of course, Thursday's 'performance' could simply have been an encouragement to those (and there seems to be a fair amount of them) who would like to vote Lib Dem, but don't because they fear it will be a wasted vote which is better place keeping x out of power.
Seeing someone from the lib dems holding their own and gaining support through the live debate will make those people think that their vote may not be as wasted as they thought and maybe the vote for their preferred party is worth placing!
Snarky
Top
User avatar
Sput
Posts: 7547
Joined: Wed 20 Aug, 2003 19.57

lukey wrote:Watching the polls just makes me realise what fickle arses the electorate at large are.

I would agree with the consensus that Nick Clegg's performance on Thursday was best, but that was it - the performance. There was no profound legislative programme set out, just a little more charisma, and if being looked in the eye and having a politician repeat your name is the sum total of the voting public's wants and needs, then it's all woefully depressing.

I would be very surprised if this bump translates into a noticeable swing to the Lib Dems come May. To clarify, this isn't any staunch Tory or Labour support on my part, just as its not a criticism of the Lib Dems or Clegg, but rather it just seems our expectations are so ridiculously low, no wonder politics is so middle of the road and the alliterative pitches aimed at the lowest common denominator.
This is the glorious thing about political discourse: the only people that are expected to be consistent is the government in power. Everyone else is allowed to be confused at best and utter hypocrite at worst. The worst thing of all, of course, is that apparently it's okay.
Knight knight
Top
User avatar
iSon
Moderator
Posts: 1634
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 23.24
Location: London

Well, the Lib Dem surge continues for a bit longer...

YouGov for The Sun
  • Conservative - 32% (-1)
  • Labour - 26% (-4)
  • Liberal Democrat - 33% (+4)
  • Others - 9% (+1)
Based on UNS
  • Conservative - 239 seats (+41)
  • Labour - 247 seats (-109)
  • Liberal Democrat - 132 seats (+70)
  • Others - 32 seats (+2)
Hung Parliament - Labour 79 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

It's significant that YouGov, who are seen as one of the most reputable pollsters has put Lib Dems in the lead. Although of course this makes it likely that Nick Clegg and his party is going to be subject to some pretty harsh criticism from other parties and in particular the newspapers once they've got bored of the "Clegg as popular as Churchill" rediculous headlines.

Big support for the Lib Dems would really make the election interesting, because although it still shows Labour as the largest party - it's only just and the prediction is based on the same swing in every constituency. Regional factors and places which just refuse to follow the national trend could change things. But either way - it's not looking too good for the Tories so I would very much expect David Cameron to start talking down policies on immigration and defence. They won't go for the economy as Vince Cable is seen as too popular and well respected to start attacking him.
Good Lord!
Top
User avatar
WillPS
Posts: 2557
Joined: Tue 22 Apr, 2008 18.32
Location: Carlton
Contact:
Contact WillPS

Well, the Conservatives replaced today's political broadcast (which was to slam Labour) with a piece literally shot in Cameron's back garden over the weekend talking more generally about change change... slamming the Liberal Democrats in such an outward way as they had planned to slam Labour simply wont serve Cameron at all well.
Image
Top
User avatar
iSon
Moderator
Posts: 1634
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 23.24
Location: London

Lots of polls tonight, which mostly show that the Lib Dem bounce is continuing and that generally it's good news for Labour in terms of seats within the House of Commons.

YouGov for The Sun
  • Conservative - 33% (+1)
  • Labour - 27% (+1)
  • Liberal Democrat - 31% (-2)
  • Others - 9% (nc)
Based on UNS
  • Conservative - 248 seats (+50)
  • Labour - 258 seats (-98)
  • Liberal Democrat - 113 seats (+51)
  • Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 68 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Opinium for Daily Express
  • Conservative - 32%
  • Labour - 26%
  • Liberal Democrat - 29%
  • Others - 13%
Based on UNS
  • Conservative - 252 seats (+54)
  • Labour - 263 seats (-93)
  • Liberal Democrat - 104 seats (+42)
  • Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 63 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

ComRes for ITV News / The Independent
  • Conservative - 32% (+1)
  • Labour - 28% (+1)
  • Liberal Democrat - 28% (-1)
  • Others - 12% (-1)
Based on UNS
  • Conservative - 244 seats (+46)
  • Labour - 279 seats (-77)
  • Liberal Democrat - 96 seats (+34)
  • Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 47 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Angus Reid for PoliticalBetting.com
  • Conservative - 32%
  • Labour - 24%
  • Liberal Democrat - 32%
  • Others - 12%
Based on UNS
  • Conservative - 258 seats (+60)
  • Labour - 226 seats (-130)
  • Liberal Democrat - 133 seats (+71)
  • Others - 33 seats (+3)
Hung Parliament - Conservatives 68 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

ICM for The Guardian
  • Conservative - 33% (-1)
  • Labour - 28% (+1)
  • Liberal Democrat - 30% (+3)
  • Others - 9% (-1)
Based on UNS
  • Conservative - 245 seats (+47)
  • Labour - 275 seats (-81)
  • Liberal Democrat - 99 seats (+37)
  • Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 51 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Interesting that the Tories made a last minute change to their planned party political broadcast - highlighting that they are the only option for "real change". Which I guess if you're looking for a future that doesn't involve Gordon Brown then that's true. Although Labour may secretly be pleased at the recent turn of events, it only serves to show that the highlight is now the battle between Cameron v Clegg as their 'interchangeable' votes are what could win it or lose it for the Conservatives.
Good Lord!
Top
barcode
Posts: 1515
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

then lib dems will get in bed with labour, we get PR.
Top
Chie
Posts: 979
Joined: Fri 31 Aug, 2007 05.03

barcode wrote:then lib dems will get in bed with labour, we get PR.
I don't believe Clegg is willing to settle for being Gordon Brown's skivvy.

It's all or nothing with him.
Top
User avatar
WillPS
Posts: 2557
Joined: Tue 22 Apr, 2008 18.32
Location: Carlton
Contact:
Contact WillPS

Chie wrote:
barcode wrote:then lib dems will get in bed with labour, we get PR.
I don't believe Clegg is willing to settle for being Gordon Brown's skivvy.

It's all or nothing with him.
That's why he's set out out his demands for forming an alliance? Right!

Clegg would be over-the-moon with a hung parliament.
Image
Top
Chie
Posts: 979
Joined: Fri 31 Aug, 2007 05.03

WillPS wrote:That's why he's set out out his demands for forming an alliance? Right!

Clegg would be over-the-moon with a hung parliament.
The demands are merely PR.

Clegg and Brown have both got "narcissist" written all over them, in my opinion. Gordon won't tolerate being upstaged by the young and enterprising Nick all the time, and Nick will implode after a few weeks of being Gordon's poodle.

The government just isn't big enough for both of them.
Top
Please Respond

Return to “The Lounge”