Ok so I'll attempt to get some political discussion going.
Does anybody know if there any vulnerable high profile politicians (ministers perhaps) who are in a key marginal seat, and at risk of being 'decapitated' (I believe that to be the phrase).
I'm hoping for a 1997 style "Portillo moment" out of this campaign and need to know who to follow.
Key Marginals / Decapitation Strategy
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Dr Lobster*
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jacqui smith is the only one that comes to mind right now. i know ruth kelly was in danger of loosing her seat, but she's standing down anyway. i felt a little sorry for jacqui smith in the end, but ruth kelly always was fucking useless.
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Jacqui Smith is one of those most at risk - just over a swing of 2% is required from Labour to the Conservatives in her constituency to knock her out. Mind you, they said she would be gone in 2005 due to the 'MG Rover effect' but that never really materialised, but did weaken her majority which is why she's at risk more this time around.
However, the most high profile "Portillo moment" that's even being referred to by the Tories is the chance that Ed Balls could lose his seat - though the West Yorkshire constituency of Morley & Outwood which he represents isn't what I would call tradtional Conservative. It's considered a fairly safe seat but I believe some of Lord Ashcroft's money may have found its way up there to try and convince the people. It would require a very big swing for the Tories to win.
Of course, this is based on the Universal National Swing which assumes that all constituences generally follow the same trend. That doesn't always happen which is why you end up with surprises on election night - no matter which way the National result is going.
One method of swing that I discovered a few weeks back was not just looking at voting intention - but how people voted last time. So effectively it looks to see how many people voted Labour last time that will now be voting Conservative this time - it's a routine question asked by pretty much every pollster and if you look at the results then it's very rare that it returns a hung parliament - it seems to be giving the Tories a majority of 50 or more.
Now the election campaign has got underway proper and people will be thinking about who they want to vote for, figures will be clearer. As around 25% of people who intend to vote that are asked at the moment are "unsure" then this could of course have a massive effect on opinion polls.
However, the most high profile "Portillo moment" that's even being referred to by the Tories is the chance that Ed Balls could lose his seat - though the West Yorkshire constituency of Morley & Outwood which he represents isn't what I would call tradtional Conservative. It's considered a fairly safe seat but I believe some of Lord Ashcroft's money may have found its way up there to try and convince the people. It would require a very big swing for the Tories to win.
Of course, this is based on the Universal National Swing which assumes that all constituences generally follow the same trend. That doesn't always happen which is why you end up with surprises on election night - no matter which way the National result is going.
One method of swing that I discovered a few weeks back was not just looking at voting intention - but how people voted last time. So effectively it looks to see how many people voted Labour last time that will now be voting Conservative this time - it's a routine question asked by pretty much every pollster and if you look at the results then it's very rare that it returns a hung parliament - it seems to be giving the Tories a majority of 50 or more.
Now the election campaign has got underway proper and people will be thinking about who they want to vote for, figures will be clearer. As around 25% of people who intend to vote that are asked at the moment are "unsure" then this could of course have a massive effect on opinion polls.
Good Lord!
Guildford is an interesting one.
After years in Conservative rule, in 2001, Sue Doughty nicked it for the Lib Dems with a majority of just 538. In 2005, it swung back to the Conservatives and Anne Milton, with an even smaller majority of 347. This election, it would take just 0.2% of swing to hand back to the Lib Dems - it's their first target seat. Unusual for deep Conservative Surrey - then again, it's a uni town...
After years in Conservative rule, in 2001, Sue Doughty nicked it for the Lib Dems with a majority of just 538. In 2005, it swung back to the Conservatives and Anne Milton, with an even smaller majority of 347. This election, it would take just 0.2% of swing to hand back to the Lib Dems - it's their first target seat. Unusual for deep Conservative Surrey - then again, it's a uni town...
Ms Smith was bullied by one bloke here in Redditch, who decided to make it his life work to get rid of her with his 'Jacqui must go complain' when all the expenses stuff came out. He was in town everyday getting signatures. If anything it will have won her votes.
I find it odd the Torys have put the same candidate up for the last 3 elections here in Redditch, if a party leader lost 3 elections, they'd get rid.
She comes across quite well in this video I have to say http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2jINH_nX9c
I find it odd the Torys have put the same candidate up for the last 3 elections here in Redditch, if a party leader lost 3 elections, they'd get rid.
She comes across quite well in this video I have to say http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2jINH_nX9c
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martindtanderson
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Lets hope Chris Grayling is given the boot.
