Metropol

... I could hardly tell with everything else going on. It clear passion are riding high and the last time Ive seen people this worked up was in 1997.

Now do you believe we will get a summer election? do you think more tory MPs will keep on differing away? or will Sunak managed to cling onto his planned date November, even thought he was told NOT to do this because of the US election.

However If Sunak goes for that November election he will call it in his Key note speech on the 2nd Oct. Where is he going to fit in the Autumn statement for his planned Tax cuts? Could he fit it in over the first 2 weeks in September?

Parliament will be closed from 14th Sept, I doubt the Government can make such statements if an election is called?

Parliament will have to convene if only to allow for the formalities of dissolution to happen.

I think it'll be a weird election, probably good, but I can't quite work out what sort of weird it might be.

Conservatives as the 4th party behind Lib Dems and Alba. That'd be weird, for example.

WillPS wrote: Sat 11 May, 2024 14.17Conservatives as the 4th party behind Lib Dems and Alba. That'd be weird, for example.

I think that's highly unlikely to happen, in part due to the first past the post electoral system. As the alternative vote referendum back in 2011 was two thirds against using the AV system I can't see it being revisited any time soon.

That said I wouldn't mind seeing the House of Lords reformed/downsized, with a proportion of it made up by a PR vote (which could even be based on the general election results). However that's a whole other subject, and appears to be something which Labour have u-turned on.

It looks like at present the Conservatives are opting to delay the seemingly inevitable, with the hope that things will improve in the next few months to lessen the damage.

Charlie Wells wrote: Mon 13 May, 2024 11.20
WillPS wrote: Sat 11 May, 2024 14.17Conservatives as the 4th party behind Lib Dems and Alba. That'd be weird, for example.
I think that's highly unlikely to happen, in part due to the first past the post electoral system.

I agree, it'd be weird. It's not a prediction, but I think whatever happens will be something of that ilk.

Indeed, it doesn't feel like the sort of election that will produce a bog standard result.

I can see two things happening. It'll be Labour with an outright majority thanks to Reform splitting the Tory vote, or a hung parliament thanks to disenfranchised voters who see Labour and the Conservatives as both sides of the same coin, so vote for the smaller parties such as the Lib Dems, Greens etc or even Galloway's hard left Workers Party of Britain which may shed some of the Labour shine in Muslim voting areas, due to their support of Israel in the latest conflict between them and Hamas.

A Labour/Lib Dem hung parliament would be the better solution personally as you'd get the least worst option.

People definitely want change - in all parts of the UK. The question is do they want that change to be to a Labour majority government? I don't think that is a nailed down certainty yet.

Philip wrote: Wed 15 May, 2024 10.24 People definitely want change - in all parts of the UK. The question is do they want that change to be to a Labour majority government? I don't think that is a nailed down certainty yet.

I wondered what the bookmakers' odds were for a Labour majority at the next election - it's between 1/8 and 1/12, and 2/13 on the exchanges.

So if you think Labour aren't going to get a majority, now's the time to get your bets on!

Funnily enough, I studied Politics at University, so looking at it all from this perspective, there are going to be some things I would be interested in seeing:

1. Turnout- Last election, Turnout was 67.3%, which while lower than 2017, I would call an anomolous drop, given how close both elections were relative to each other. Turnout has, on general, been going up. I expect turnout to be over 68%, but likely not much higher than 2017.

2. Young voters- Corbyn got Young Leftists involved in formal politics again. While Starmer is a lot more Centrist than Corbyn, will he do the same?

3. Media- I think The Sun won't back The Tories, but won't back Labour either.

4. Results- At the moment, Labour could become complacent and assume victory, but end up with a smaller majority than they thought they would. At the moment, I think it would be too much to assume a supermajority like The Conservatives had, but a good working majority of 30-40 seats? The Lib Dems might gain a couple of seats, especially since its been almost a decade since they were almost killed off by the Coalition and Brexit. I do think they need a new identity post-Brexist.

Philip wrote: Wed 15 May, 2024 10.24 People definitely want change - in all parts of the UK. The question is do they want that change to be to a Labour majority government? I don't think that is a nailed down certainty yet.

I feel like Keir Starmer is a competent bloke, but unknowable. I couldn't tell you what he stands for, because he doesn't seem to want to commit to an ideology himself. I don't think he's a Blairite, he's certainly not Hard Left, but he is a wishy washy soft serve left. I don't think British people want that. I think he needs to be more decisive about what he will bring.

Blewatter wrote: Wed 15 May, 2024 21.05 Funnily enough, I studied Politics at University, so looking at it all from this perspective, there are going to be some things I would be interested in seeing:

1. Turnout- Last election, Turnout was 67.3%, which while lower than 2017, I would call an anomolous drop, given how close both elections were relative to each other. Turnout has, on general, been going up. I expect turnout to be over 68%, but likely not much higher than 2017.

2. Young voters- Corbyn got Young Leftists involved in formal politics again. While Starmer is a lot more Centrist than Corbyn, will he do the same?

3. Media- I think The Sun won't back The Tories, but won't back Labour either.

4. Results- At the moment, Labour could become complacent and assume victory, but end up with a smaller majority than they thought they would. At the moment, I think it would be too much to assume a supermajority like The Conservatives had, but a good working majority of 30-40 seats? The Lib Dems might gain a couple of seats, especially since its been almost a decade since they were almost killed off by the Coalition and Brexit. I do think they need a new identity post-Brexist.

Also, I do think the SNP will lose a few seats to Alba, Labour, and maybe the Lib Dems.

Metropol

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