There an election this year.....

gottago
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Blewatter wrote: Wed 22 May, 2024 21.10 I think part of the reason its been called now is because of the recent announcement that inflation has fallen to 2.3%, which was the higher end of where they wanted it to be anyway.
Was it though? It was still a lower drop than expected. Is it not more the fact that continuously extremely high migration numbers have been reported today (and somewhat buried now) and could well have seen enough letters of no confidence go in to finish him? The fact that letters have even gone in in the last 24 hours to try and oust him and cancel the election(!), the way his own party and even the most astute political analysts have been totally blindsided by this and are pretty much universal in saying this is possibly the worst point he could have called this election for (for his party, certainly not for the country) suggests to me this is more a personal decision to leave than a genuine attempt at fighting an election.

Much like Clegg, ultimately Silicon Valley's tech companies probably will be more interested in hiring someone voted out by the public in a standard general election than ousted by rivals in an already failing government. Assuming, that is, that they see value in someone being the least worst prime minister of the worst government in British history.

He'll be gone the day after the election I think, I don't think he'll have any interest in staying till his successor takes over.
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WillPS
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bilky asko wrote: Thu 23 May, 2024 06.57
WillPS wrote: Wed 22 May, 2024 21.58
Blewatter wrote: Wed 22 May, 2024 21.10 I don't think that we will have a Conservative Government, come the 4th of July
I'm not sure what course of events could cause there not to still be one up to and including the morning of the 5th.
Through a huge coincidence, everyone in the nation forgets to vote, except one voter in Newcastle who votes for the Lib Dems. All the other seats are decided by pulling straws, which is completed prior to midnight. By sheer luck, all the straw polls produce a Green Party MP, and a Green government is formed prior to midnight after they prepared for this incredibly unlikely scenario.
The logistics of getting Sunak from Richmond to Buckingham Palace by midnight would still be tough, even with his penchant for helicopter travel.
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barcode
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So what is everyone predictions for this election? Of course if Labour were to repeat its 1997 success and gain 146 seats it would only give them a 346 ie 40 seat majority. That would be some story. I bet somewhere on election night if this was to happen certain tory would be like see it wasn't a complete wipe out.

However if it was to repeat its last July election succuss AKA 1945, it would win 230 seats and bring it back to 400 plus.

Or could the lib dems take tory down further, could the greens win other seats like Bristol? yet there is talk Brighton could go back to Labour.
all new Phil
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I’d be amazed if it’s anything other than a healthy Labour majority. I don’t really buy the whole argument about too big a swing needed etc - the mood of the country is pretty clearly against the Tories right now.

I don’t think Lib Dems will do as well as they hope. There’s a smug complacency about them right now that I think puts people off. I also find a lot of their stunts quite juvenile and their policies aren’t serious.

I do think we’ll see a couple of high profile Labour MPs unexpectedly lose their seats. We saw this in the local elections where there’s a strong pro-Palestine vote. I know of a couple who are nervous.

I think the Tories need those on the right to splinter off and head towards Reform. Long term it’ll do their chances in 5/10 years time a lot of good if they can pull back towards the centre. It’ll be interesting to see what they do after the election. Braverman / Patel as leader would keep them in opposition for a second term, Mordaunt or (if they get him a seat) Street will make it much closer.
Blewatter
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WillPS wrote: Wed 22 May, 2024 21.58
Blewatter wrote: Wed 22 May, 2024 21.10 I don't think that we will have a Conservative Government, come the 4th of July
I'm not sure what course of events could cause there not to still be one up to and including the morning of the 5th.
I just like stating things that are a seemingly foregone conclusion.
bilky asko
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all new Phil wrote: Fri 24 May, 2024 16.45 I’d be amazed if it’s anything other than a healthy Labour majority. I don’t really buy the whole argument about too big a swing needed etc - the mood of the country is pretty clearly against the Tories right now
I believe that the idea a large swing would be required is based on old data and is no longer the case - i.e. the advantage the Conservatives had thanks to First Past the Post has all but disappeared.
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Philip
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Not even been a week and the Tory campaign has gone horribly. National service? Are they trying not to get votes or something?
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Sput
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The national service thing really inceses me because it's a perfect example of how the UK has destroyed the social contract between the country and the young - and it ain't the young's fault.

When they want something like security, or to not die from COVID, then it's the young who take the hit - and it's a big hit. But what are they getting in return, having gone through that?
❌ Housing prospects
❌ Job prospects
❌ Eventually, a retirement
❌ The option to live in another country due to the above being shite
✅ Getting called woke snowflakes when they have an opinion on the society they're inheriting

Maybe I'm crazy, but if you want to "build a cohesive society", maybe stop crapping on a big section of it?

Clarification: I do not any longer consider myself young :D
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WillPS
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It's an incredibly poor bit of politics. Undeliverable, designed to appeal to idiots and probably exactly the sort of stuff that'd put off their core 'family' (read - grandparents) voter base off.

Blows my mind that this is what they chose to "reset" with after the day off yesterday.

They are completely screwed.
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gottago
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Just seen this on Reddit, the government's view on why National Service would be a very bad idea from just three days ago.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOgGUvUXUAA ... name=large
thegeek
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here's a slightly more accessible version of same:
https://questions-statements.parliament ... 5-15/26391
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