There an election this year.....

Martin Phillp
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Joined: Wed 11 May, 2011 01.28

The SNP are going through their own factional crisis. Those who want them to focus on getting another referendum on independence, then you have the likes of Joanna Cherry and Kate Forbes who are more interested in removing rights from trans people.

We've already seen Alba being formed by ex SNP politicians who are the hardest on getting independence for Scotland, which has left the SNP being diluted on the question, also not helped by issues surrounding the former First Minister and her husband.

It's a shame that Mhairi Black is leaving politics after the GE, but I think she knows deep down that the SNP in Westminster are going to be decimated, so like the Tory MPs who are also leaving, they know that time is up.
TVF's London Lite.
all new Phil
Posts: 1978
Joined: Sun 13 Feb, 2005 00.04
Location: Next door to Hell

I don’t think anything’s clear cut yet.

Lib Dems are as ever making the mistake of assuming their vote is anti-Tory. It really isn’t. If they had any sense they’d move into the centre and try to attract the huge number of centre-right Tories who I think will play a big part in deciding the result.

I don’t sense a huge longing for a Labour government. There’s definitely a longing for a government other than the Tory one we have now though. I think the Tories have probably gone beyond the point of rescue - an Andy Street type figure would be their best chance rather than someone on the right of the party, and I feel that’s where they’ll go after the election.

Right now I think the only thing they’re limping on for is the £40k or so salary they can bank between now and later in the year. I wouldn’t underestimate how big an incentive to plod on that is.
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dosxuk
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Location: Sheffield

Blewatter wrote: Wed 15 May, 2024 21.08 I don't think British people want that. I think he needs to be more decisive about what he will bring.
I don't think it matters to most people - they just want a basic level of competence and compassion. Something significantly lacking from our most recent Tory party leaders, and the alternatives they could provide if Sunak was booted. Vote Sunak, get Badenoch is not a vote winner, but it is a fear of a significant part of the electorate.
cdd
Posts: 2610
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 14.05

Martin Phillp wrote: Wed 15 May, 2024 03.39Disenfranchised voters who see Labour and the Conservatives as both sides of the same coin
They may not be exactly two sides of the same coin, but they are certainly two sides of the same hairstyle.
barcode
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Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Yes since the early 80s most people are not really that keen on old red tooth and claw of the Labour party, * Ive heard many people still not happy with them in 83 but still voted for them.

But there is still a HUGE different between Labour and the Tories, when people say who there no better than each other I think this sounds like propaganda. I could stomach Boris more then the last two shower of shits because Boris was a very left wing Tory, I think the reason why red wall went with him.

Its clear voters don't like this HUNT style government, its clear who running the show now. I think the next battle will be between the likes of Andy streets or Kemi Badenoch.

With the Date of the election: It seems the betting market is

* July - September 2024 The odds are now Shortening, while
* October - December 2024 are drifting out.

I just can't see an election in July - Sept, I still think if he can get past the next 5 weeks he's laughing as he can then call an election for 5th October, he can then use his Key note speech on the 2nd Oct as his last call and hunt can say they have planned tax cuts. Plus parliament will be closed for 4 months..
barcode
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Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

What a difference a day makes, If you watching the betting markets something really weird has happened.

July Election is NOW the fav, This is the First time anything BAR Oct/Nov election has been in the lead even with the speculations with May election.
Next Election Odds Date: Bookmakers slash odds on July to September
Are we heading for a summer election in the UK?

UK bookmakers today have slashed odds for there to be a General Election between July and September following rumours Rishi Sunak will call a snap election.

A General Election taking place between July and September is now the most likely time according to the latest odds on oddschecker.

Having been 2/1 on Wednesday morning, the latest adjustment has seen them now at a shortest 1/2, an increase in implied probability from 33% to 56%.

It remains a best price 5/6 on Paddy Power.
Go back to April a Summer election was in last place at 12/1.

https://www.olbg.com/news/general-elect ... l-election
bilky asko
Posts: 1417
Joined: Sat 08 Nov, 2008 19.48

barcode wrote: Wed 22 May, 2024 13.28 What a difference a day makes
Or, indeed, just over two weeks...
Milkshake from Presentation Café wrote:Since were not heading for election "soon" is there enough time from the BBC to do a spit and posh with it election presentation? It just felt so drab and boring over the weekend. Surly a mini refresh would do wonders.
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barcode
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Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

As one famous person said, a week in politics can be a very long time. A lot of politic commentators all said HE had to call the election for the summer as it would only get worse if he carried on. Of course 4th July is the 1st possible date in the second half of the year, which is bonkers.

Tough luck Osbourne who thought it would be 14th November, HE was aways on the wrong side and how anyone could call him Moderate in the party is mad.
Blewatter
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I think part of the reason its been called now is because of the recent announcement that inflation has fallen to 2.3%, which was the higher end of where they wanted it to be anyway. Sunak is clearly going for the 'It's the economy, stupid' argument and trying to justify that the Tories will continue to improve the economy. I stand by what I said, I don't think that we will have a Conservative Government, come the 4th of July. A lot of people are fed up, and I do think that will help Labour win this election. I do think that Labour needs a clearer set of policies though, because I still don't know what Keir Starmer stands for.
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WillPS
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Blewatter wrote: Wed 22 May, 2024 21.10 I don't think that we will have a Conservative Government, come the 4th of July
I'm not sure what course of events could cause there not to still be one up to and including the morning of the 5th.
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bilky asko
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WillPS wrote: Wed 22 May, 2024 21.58
Blewatter wrote: Wed 22 May, 2024 21.10 I don't think that we will have a Conservative Government, come the 4th of July
I'm not sure what course of events could cause there not to still be one up to and including the morning of the 5th.
Through a huge coincidence, everyone in the nation forgets to vote, except one voter in Newcastle who votes for the Lib Dems. All the other seats are decided by pulling straws, which is completed prior to midnight. By sheer luck, all the straw polls produce a Green Party MP, and a Green government is formed prior to midnight after they prepared for this incredibly unlikely scenario.
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