Brexit

[WillPS]

Anyone suspect there might be some sort of Brexit compromise deal about to appear? That's the only thing I can think of that's so enraged Cummings and his mate that they've left No. 10 this quickly.

Maybe I'm just being hopeful.

Yeah it was leaked last week. Boris, Cummings et al were hedging everything on a Trump win. Now that hasn't happened, their IMB is in tatters and they are about to compromise on a whole raft of things. UK will be more like Norway or Switzerland.

I thought it was something to do with describing the PM's wife as "Princess Nut Nuts"?

Either way - I'm not sure I'd be ready to say with certainty we are heading for a soft Brexit, even if the odds do appear to be improving.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -on-brexit

[cwathen]

Anyone suspect there might be some sort of Brexit compromise deal about to appear? That's the only thing I can think of that's so enraged Cummings and his mate that they've left No. 10 this quickly.

Maybe I'm just being hopeful.

What is notable is the tone of the rhetoric on both sides had calmed down a lot just prior to the departure of Cummings. And also how something which apparently needs to be sorted in 5 weeks with little progress made to date no longer seems such a priority or such a problem.

I would say either the UK has been offered and in-principle accepted a Norway-style deal but this won't be announced until the 11th hour, or there has been an in-principle agreement to extend the transition period and kick the can down the road (again).

I have long believed that Boris is only a Brexiteer because he decided it was politically advantageous for him to be so. Pre-referendum he had never been particularly identified with the Euro-sceptic wing of the Conservative party and indeed felt the need to have what amounted to a press launch of 'Boris the Brexiteer' with speculation as to which way he would lean. He decided that when polling showed a roughly 50/50 split then either way the referendum went he could spin it either as a result achieved because of him or a result which only got so close to being achieved because of him. When he is known as being a man light on detail and with no long term strategy it probably didn't occur to him as to what he would do after basking in the political capital he gained from the leave side.

As it is, he's either been offered a reasonable deal or the opportunity to carry on hiding under the covers a bit longer. Either will do for Boris, neither would be acceptable to Cummings. I suspect the much reported claims that Cummings slagged off Carrie Symonds came from the ensuing argument over Brexit rather than being a random slur.

[WillPS]

I hope you're right, cwathen, but given the build up I can't see any deal involving any semblance of Freedom of Movement happening, it'd be far too much of a climb-down.

Extension of the transition period would also be a climbdown, but probably one they could get away with if they get the job done by the next election.

[cwathen]

I hope you're right, cwathen, but given the build up I can't see any deal involving any semblance of Freedom of Movement happening, it'd be far too much of a climb-down.

Despite ultimately voting remain, I'm not fully supportive of the EU for a number of reasons. But immigration isn't something I have a problem with. And historically, neither does the UK government have a problem with it, even pre-1973. The irony of so many people citing 'immigration', 'too many of them coming over here' etc etc as a reason for voting leave is that whatever else changes because of Brexit, immigration is the single thing least likely to change. As well as the settled status scheme for existing migrants, I can see the 'points based immigration system' ending up having so many exemptions to it that it becomes...pointless. So whilst I'm sure that any deal will be very careful to be clear that it doesn't amount to explicit freedom of movement, the reality will be very little change in terms of being able to migrate to the UK.

Extension of the transition period would also be a climbdown, but probably one they could get away with if they get the job done by the next election.

If extension happens, it'll be justified by a combination of Covid and claims that discussions on a deal are so advanced and so close to completion that it would be daft to walk away for the sake of a 'few more weeks' (which will be a few more months, at least).

[gottago]

There seems to be a curious lack of calling out negative things that are a direct result of Brexit, blaming the pandemic for things that were otherwise functioning during the pandemic last year. Nando's running out of chicken the other day was reported by BBC News as being a result of the 'pingdemic' even though the same article stated Ireland and Northern Ireland, both coincidently still in the single market (well, essentially in the case of NI), were entirely unaffected.

It took the British Poultry Association to come out yesterday to say that the pandemic was nothing to do with the shortage, it was entirely down to Brexit and there will likely be Brexit-related issues for years to come. https://news.sky.com/story/food-industr ... s-12384770

So why wasn't that mentioned initially? I appreciate Nando's aren't going to come out with an all-guns blazing statement blaming Brexit, afterall they're just a restaurant chain trying to explain some of their sites are shut and imply they'll be back open shortly. Are BBC News trying to avoid offending GB News types who would rather bury their head in the sand about these issues? I wonder how some of these stories would have been reported if the pandemic hadn't happened.

In other news my friend who works at a tech company has come off maternity to find they're moving out of the UK to Galway as they can't survive the red tape and she'll be losing her job.