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What's next?

Theresa May's Deal
No deal
People's vote
Something else (pls specify)
Total votes: 46
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So... what do we all think then? Both in terms of what should and what might happen next.

Be nice remember.

My view, if you're wondering, is this...

I voted remain. Still think it was a bad idea. However I'm generally of the view it could have been made to work if the majestic Nick Timothy hadn't came along with his ridiculous red lines and no deal is better than a bad deal catchphrase.

The govt should have cut off people like Mogg at the outset and not pandered to them. Davis should have been fired for incompetence and Fox's dept shouldn't have ever existed. Instead an orderly transition of EFTA to begin with should have been looked at with the explanation that untangling from 45 years of union is going to take more than five mins. Article 50 should never have been used until a plan was in place.

However we are where we are, and it's ended up a massive mess. I think to be fair the deal May has got is probably the best on offer given the absurd red lines given and the amount of goodwill burned through. You'd think at times the cabinet were unaware that people in other European countries can actually hear what they're saying.

Although parliament could just assert its authority and veto the thing, its probably going to need another referendum to have "legitimacy" (or whatever counts for it). So I'd say the options need to be between the deal May has got, and remain.

No deal is not a credible option and never has been.

Of course what would help the remain cause could include
- actually promising that we'd use the powers that already exist to help with immigration issues / worries
- emphasising the fact that loads of european stuff was our idea, single market etc, and that if anyone has been lording it over the rest of the EU all this time its not Germany, its us
- a certain person to come out of his shed and admit he fucked it all up and apologise might go some way to convincing the centre of the Tory party

Also when this is all over, John Humphries needs put out to pasture.
"He has to be larger than bacon"
bilky asko
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Is pandering to the anti-immigration crowd really worth it to remain in the EU?
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bilky asko wrote: Mon 19 Nov, 2018 13.25 Is pandering to the anti-immigration crowd really worth it to remain in the EU?
I think what TM is currently doing is pandering to the anti-immigration crowd, which has been her MO for years with her claims about the pet cat etc.

I'd say there was a mistake in 2004 that ended being blown out of proportion. Plus it's mostly our govts fault if they don't build infrastructure for places that have an increased population.

But specifically it's things like the unenforced rules that would allow us to deport people who just come and sell big issues. It's a tiny minority of people who abuse free movement in that way, but it's that minority who end up making people think the whole concept is bad when in fact it's westminster's failure to properly implement the rules that already exist.
"He has to be larger than bacon"
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In terms of what's most likely, right now as of 19 November 2018, it's no deal. TM's position is that she can't negotiate any more and also that article 50 won't be extended. The EU's position is that they won't negotiate any more. But it won't get through parliament. Jezza still believes that voting it down will force a general election and get him into Downing Street where he plans to start again with his own deal, every other significant party plans to vote it down, it seems open to question as to whether the DUP will honour their confidence and supply agreement and vote with the government, and there will be Tory dissenters.

It would not entirely surprise me if something gives and a deal is reached, but at present that's not on the table.

This whole thing has been a shambles from beginning to end. The cock ups as I see them:

1. Triggering brexit should never have been as simple as a single round referendum with only a simple majority required. There should have been either a qualifying majority required, and/or a multi stage referendum with a vote on the concept of leaving, followed by a vote on the deal reached with an option to abandon the whole thing if it was deemed to be less favourable than staying in. We should never have ended up in this mess just because on the day the prevailing wind was just in the right direction to deliver a marginal leave vote. However, I cannot support a 'people's vote' because although that is essentially implementing a check which should have been there in the first place, the fact remains that such a check wasn't there and the vote was to leave under the system which was used and it was clear that the result would be respected. Trying to retro-fit in a second referendum because the 'wrong' decision was made is not democratic.

2. Campaigning on both sides was appalling, but the remain campaign was arguably worse. Instead of arguing about what was good about the EU, instead we just got project fear. The campaign was also not very visible. All I ever got asking me to vote remain was the official government leaflet, whilst vote leave were actively out and about even in small towns.

3. Triggering of article 50 without a plan. I questioned how leave voters could vote for something so significant without any clue as to how it would be implemented or what it would look like. That's why I voted remain. But then the government essentially did the same thing by triggering article 50 and setting in motion a ticking clock without even the vaguest of ideas about how they intended to proceed.

4. The 2017 general election. A needless diversion which they didn't have time for. Also generally farting around with no real push for progress, instead acting as if they had all the time in the world during 2017 and then trying to pull everything out of a hat just before the deadline. The article 50 period has basically been run the way the average 16 year old runs their GCSE coursework.
all new Phil
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Coooeeeeeeee. Leave voter here.

First off, I’ve almost been made to feel ashamed for voting the way I did, as if all people who voted leave are racist idiots. I’m far from that, in fact I’m not even arsed about immigration, I think it’s a huge benefit to the country. My beef has always been with the EU, which I’ve long thought of as being not run in the UK’s interest. I have the same belief in the UK’s ability to go it alone than I think Scottish independence supporters feel about Scotland. I don’t really understand why that’s such a bad thing.

For what’s next - I think Theresa May will get hounded out, but whoever takes over will face exactly the same issues. The only option that I think would get voted through parliament is to remain in the EU. I admire Theresa May’s commitment to making it work, I think she’s got an impossible task but fair play to her for wanting to see it through. Raab will probably replace her and last less than a year.
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The squirrels are going to take over.
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I'm curious as to why, on her Downing Street press conference the other week, May stumbled out the third "no Brexit" option. She all but rolled back on it in Parliament the next day - but surely she didn't say it by mistake. Is she lining it up as a serious option? To me it's the most sensible one, though it always was.

I do have trouble seeing where we go next - even if the EU27 agree the deal, it's not going to pass the "meaningful" vote. So then what?
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Quite interesting developments since yesterday - Corbyn and Sturgeon having meetings about the possibility of a 'coalition of opposition' to the government's Brexit deal.

Meanwhile, the DUP abstained on the finance bill. Although claiming to remain committed to the confidence & supply agreement (for now anyway), they are publically calling it a 'warning shot', with warnings of further abstentions if there is not renegotiation.

Whilst in the Tory party although Graham Brady appears somewhat more short of the 48 letters than was claimed over the weekend, there continues to be a movement to force a leadership challenge.

What does this mean for TM? Probably not that much. Every other week seems to be her worst week ever with imminent demise predicted, then somehow she scrapes through to soldier on a bit longer, until the cycle repeats itself. Her resilience has to be admired, if nothing else.
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MarkAshley wrote: Tue 20 Nov, 2018 03.28 Lewes Bonfire Society's 2018 effigy, East Sussex, 5th November 2018
Of course what is wrong there is that May was never anything to do with the Brexit Bus, she supported remain.

There does seem to be chunk of people that seem to think Brexit is fully aligned with the political parties. Tories means Brexit, Labour means remain. This is of course not the case.

I’m not sure how it will all end, no deal will ever be accepted as it will not satisfy hard and soft brexiteers. Remainers won’t accept any deal as they think remaining is still on the table, and Labour won’t vote for anything as they are playing party politics and want to get in power.

Although I’m leaning now towards a so called people’s vote. It obviously isn’t democratic and would people change their opinion about it if it was May who decided to do it? Also how many opinions would be on this vote?
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Andrew wrote:Of course what is wrong there is that May was never anything to do with the Brexit Bus, she supported remain.

There does seem to be chunk of people that seem to think Brexit is fully aligned with the political parties. Tories means Brexit, Labour means remain. This is of course not the case.
I'm pretty much sure all Momentum/Corbyn era Labour supporters fail to grasp that their leader is one of the most anti-EU MPs in the house and has a demonstrable 30 year record of voting against anything pro-EU ever. Amongst other things, Corbyn privately voted Against remaining in the EEC in 1975, he voted as an MP against Maastricht in 1993 and against Lisbon in 2009. He is not the man to stop Brexit which his followers think he is. If anything, he would make a hard break and no deal more likely.

I feel Labour supporters also fail to grasp that historically Labour has been a more anti-Europe party than the Tories are. The UK entered the EEC in the first place under a Tory government and the first thing the successive Labour government did was hold a referendum on whether we should stay in. Fast forward to 2016 and all those people doing unskilled jobs banging on and on about immigration are traditionally cast iron Labour supporters, not Tories.

Labour could have won the 2017 general election on the back of a pledge to stop Brexit. But Corbyn made no such offer because he doesn't believe in stopping it.

The mess of Brexit and the Tory's own divisions is the only thing preventing the shambles of Labour being held to ransom by Momentum and the 3 pounders electing a leader the PLP doesn't want (and then in the 2016 leadership challenge finding out that they can't remove him either as the 3 pounders will just vote him in again) being discussed more widely than it deserves to be. I just wish all those left wing pro EU socialists could see that Corbyn isn't what they think he is.
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As others have said, i think the future is really uncertain! We're certainly wasting time discussing May's draft deal at the moment because it'll never get voted through/accepted by a majority of people, but as cwathen says it's unlikely that anyone else could actually put something more agreeable on the table. I am surprised at how long May has lasted, but equally can't see a way forward for the Tories at the moment without her - she swept in with the Brexiteers flying high having won the referendum, meaning that even though she was a Remainer she was accepted as they felt that they'd won and that their was no reopening the issue. As it becomes apparent that the vote hasn't settled the question of Brexit, I can't see anyone who the Conservatives would unite behind - Leave voters will now want someone who also voted out as security, and Remainers will want anything but that to cling onto the hope of staying in.

I'd be inclined to say that another referendum of *some* description will be held, but I think it'll have to be worded very carefully to avoid sending Leave campaigners into a frenzy, and I don't think we're at the point yet where Remaining in the EU could feasibly appear on the ballot paper. If there is a second referendum, I imagine they'll ask more than one question!

Ultimately, whatever the outcome a large part of British society will most likely be dissatisfied - unfortunately I think we're stuck with the Brexit debate now for years to come!

Oh, and I agree with others about Labour being a shambles through this - I think people have generally accepted Corbyn now but don't appreciate the reality of what a Corbyn premiership would actually mean. If he was PM I think we'd be in largely the same position, as he's not going to get a better deal and ultimately would be happy to let us crash out.
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