- Non-FPTP voting system: fail, but I feel it could have come true if things had gone differently? I’d put it on the list for the next 10 years!
- UK join the Euro: fail. Weird to think Brexit wasn’t even a topic in 2013.
- TV channels going: fail, but… does anyone watch them anymore?
- BBC change its logo: yes! But a subtler tweak than I envisioned. Hardly 1997.
- 50% bank branches to close: 50% have closed since 2015 so this is an easy 'yes'. (Surprised anyone doubted it tbh!)
- Big Number Change: fail. Didn't predict that phone lines would become less relevant.
- No manned checkouts: kinda? My large Tesco has a policy of closing all checkouts at certain times (but opening one up if you need one). Convenience branches have moved more in this direction. Strictly speaking, it's a fail.
From all new phil:
- Online shopping to decline: fail. In the US it increased from 5.8% (2013) to 16.1% (2022).
- Another war probably against Russia: can you predict any lottery numbers while you're at it? (Also, this one nearly escaped coming true).
- Electric cars more commonplace: yes, we've gone from 200k globally to 2m in the US alone. Still a minority, though.
- Government to tax electric cars to replace losses from fuel duty: A think tank has recently urged the government to do this, although it hasn't been done. I'l be mean and call this a fail.
- UK to exit the EU: yes (came true rather quickly, in fact).
- Teenagers laughing at Samsung S3s: I'm going to call this a fail? I don't think smartphones have changed THAT much since 2013. Certainly not compared to the 10 years prior.
- Lab-grown meat: this is still a fair way off being commonplace. Maybe if this thread had lasted a few more years, but for now it's a fail
- Most energy will come from nuclear reactions: fail, it's around 16%. It’s actually decreased slightly since 2013.
- Virgin Media will no longer maintain a network offering consumer services: fail.
- The average city centre will have shrunk overall, with retail hurting more than leisure/dining: success, although the biggest change happened post pandemic. The breakdown shows retail was more affected than leisure.
- Tesco Extra will be gone: fail, although in fairness the stores have changed a bit in terms of the other concessions (that one has shrunk a little, for example).
- Sky (satellite service) will be dead: fail, although maybe not too far off given Sky Glass.
- Apple will have shrivelled: fail, whichever way you look at it. Their market cap has increased from $460b to $2.8tn since 2013, and they are bucking the thread by continuing to open new retail stores).
- Facebook will have iris recognition: this came closer than I'd have imagined thanks to Meta Quest, but it doesn't feature iris recognition so it's a fail. Apple's does though. Maybe an extra year or two would have seen this bizarre prediction come true..!
- Twitter will be recognised as irrelevant: This was so close to being a fail, but the ridiculous rebrand to ‘X’ a few weeks ago means I’m calling this true.
Also, some of the most major events that went un-predicted:
- AI / LLMs
- Cryptocurrency explosion