Predictions for 15/08/2023

[cdd]

It is time to reopen the time capsule...

From cdd:

• Non-FPTP voting system: fail, but I feel it could have come true if things had gone differently? I’d put it on the list for the next 10 years!
• UK join the Euro: fail. Weird to think Brexit wasn’t even a topic in 2013.
• TV channels going: fail, but… does anyone watch them anymore?
• BBC change its logo: yes! But a subtler tweak than I envisioned. Hardly 1997.
• 50% bank branches to close: 50% have closed since 2015 so this is an easy 'yes'. (Surprised anyone doubted it tbh!)
• Big Number Change: fail. Didn't predict that phone lines would become less relevant.
• No manned checkouts: kinda? My large Tesco has a policy of closing all checkouts at certain times (but opening one up if you need one). Convenience branches have moved more in this direction. Strictly speaking, it's a fail.

Score: 2/7

From all new phil:

• Online shopping to decline: fail. In the US it increased from 5.8% (2013) to 16.1% (2022).
• Another war probably against Russia: can you predict any lottery numbers while you're at it? (Also, this one nearly escaped coming true).

Score: 1/2

from rdobbie:

• Electric cars more commonplace: yes, we've gone from 200k globally to 2m in the US alone. Still a minority, though.
• Government to tax electric cars to replace losses from fuel duty: A think tank has recently urged the government to do this, although it hasn't been done. I'l be mean and call this a fail.
• UK to exit the EU: yes (came true rather quickly, in fact).
• Teenagers laughing at Samsung S3s: I'm going to call this a fail? I don't think smartphones have changed THAT much since 2013. Certainly not compared to the 10 years prior.
• Lab-grown meat: this is still a fair way off being commonplace. Maybe if this thread had lasted a few more years, but for now it's a fail

Score: 2/5

From WillPS:

• Most energy will come from nuclear reactions: fail, it's around 16%. It’s actually decreased slightly since 2013.
• Virgin Media will no longer maintain a network offering consumer services: fail.
• The average city centre will have shrunk overall, with retail hurting more than leisure/dining: success, although the biggest change happened post pandemic. The breakdown shows retail was more affected than leisure.
• Tesco Extra will be gone: fail, although in fairness the stores have changed a bit in terms of the other concessions (that one has shrunk a little, for example).
• Sky (satellite service) will be dead: fail, although maybe not too far off given Sky Glass.

Score: 1/5

From Sput:

• Apple will have shrivelled: fail, whichever way you look at it. Their market cap has increased from $460b to $2.8tn since 2013, and they are bucking the thread by continuing to open new retail stores).
• Facebook will have iris recognition: this came closer than I'd have imagined thanks to Meta Quest, but it doesn't feature iris recognition so it's a fail. Apple's does though. Maybe an extra year or two would have seen this bizarre prediction come true..!
• Twitter will be recognised as irrelevant: This was so close to being a fail, but the ridiculous rebrand to ‘X’ a few weeks ago means I’m calling this true.

Score: 1/3


Also, some of the most major events that went un-predicted:

• Pandemic
• AI / LLMs
• Cryptocurrency explosion

[WillPS]

Not sure what I was thinking on the VM prediction but the to others aren't massively wide of the mark. New Tesco Extras aren't a thing and the ones which still exist are shrinking one way or another. That we didn't go Nuclear in a big way came back to bite very hard.

[Sput]

You’re wrong, cdd 😉

[JAS84]

Congratulations guys. Everyone who posted here ten years ago got something right.

[Blewatter]

Does this mean we now make predictions for 15/08/33?

1. William will probably be King, though I wouldn't rule out Charles clinging on for longer.
2. Telephones will no longer exist. They're already moving away from copper wiring to internet based calling in 2025.
3. The Conservatives will probably be back in power, or be the next government in waiting.
4. Putin will still be in charge of Russia, Pope Francis will be dead, and America will have a Republican President
5. The BBC will still exist, with a new charter, though I reckon there will be no more licence fee.
6. iPhone 25 will have no ports, will have a camera under the screen, and still somehow be 3 years behind android phones.

[all new Phil]

Ooh ok then, I’ll make a few.

1) North Korea will have been invaded, and a democratically elected government put in place. Floodgates opened for rampant capitalism. Big deal made of first NK McDonalds and Starbucks.

2) GB News still going.

3) Spice Girls reunion including new music to have happened, with all 5.

4) Thousands of job losses due to AI.

5) Musk puts people on the moon.

6) 1997 BBC logo still shows up occasionally.

7) Twitter still going, reverted back to being called Twitter. It’s exactly the same as it is now.

8) That fella that runs Iceland to be PM at some point.

[Martin Phillp]

1. The UK joins the Schengen area, but stays independent.
2. IP delivery of linear tv channels replaces satellite distribution for Sky and Freesat, while becomes an option on Freeview.
3. John Lewis becomes an online retailer, but keeps their flagship Oxford Street store. No change to Waitrose.
4. Social broadband tariffs are offered by every ISP as standard alongside the standard products.
5. The use of electric vehicles becomes more common.
6. Another global health pandemic.
7. Universal Credit replaced with different benefit tiers again.
8. PR used in General Elections.
9. Labour Mayor in London.
10. FM transmitters start to be switched off replaced by DAB+ and online streaming.

[cwathen]

So predictions for 15/8/2033...

1) The process of trying to break bread with the EU following Brexit (something already started) will continue with possible re-joining being a constant theme. Eventually readmission under the same terms we had before (including the opt outs and keeping the pound) will be offered. A further referendum will be held.

2) There will be a major change in how broadband infrastructure works so that FTTP connections are delivered as permanently connected utilities the same as Electricity, Gas and Water. Broadband will therefore always be available and changing provider will just be an administrative rather than a technical process.

3) IPV4 will still be in common use

4) Despite expectations, the TV licence fee will get a further stay of execution and still be around in 2033, including all of the quaint oddities like a B&W licence too.

5) TV Licence Evasion will be decriminalised. At first, this will mistakenly cause people to believe that there will be no consequences for not having a TV Licence but the replacement (a bulk civil enforcement process directly operated by TV Licencing with paperwork rubber-stamped by Northampton County Court and liability orders for claimed arrears waived through on cases which have never been near a district judge) will be far harsher than leaving evasion as a criminal offence. Ironically it will be this and the associated horror stories which actually result in a real campaign against it in a way there hasn't been before building.

6) Voting for UK Parliament elections will still be FPTP.

7) The 2030 cutoff for new Petrol & Diesel vehicles will be abandoned. EV use will grow, but nowhere near enough to become a majority. Petrol-powered vehicles will still be the most common, and the reality that electric vehicles powered by rechargeable batteries can never be made as convenient as a petrol car, and that they will never be a popular choice in homes with no private parking to install charging infrastructure on will set in. Work on a viable alternative power source for EVs which can be affordably and safely scaled for mass use (I'm thinking power cells) will be in full swing.

8) Current gen EVs start to need new batteries and this ends up either being impossible or costing more than the car is worth. Large numbers of EVs that were less than 10 years old that otherwise had nothing wrong with them will have been scrapped at huge environmental cost. A leaked document from a major manufacturer shows that this was always the plan to try and significantly reduce the average lifespan of a vehicle in a bid for planned obsolescence. It blows up to become something far bigger than the diesel emissions scandal ever was as it becomes apparent how much of the car industry is in on it.

9) It will have been determined that COVID was over-reacted to and the measures taken have done more harm than good.

10) Pretty much all DTH satellite broadcasting will have ceased as providers like Sky go for entirely IP-based delivery. DTT though will still be around.

11) Cash use decline will level off. It'll be much lower than it is now but not in terminal decline as is/will have happened in other countries. The UK public will continue to be irrationally terrified of £50 notes.

[bilky asko]

1) Cwathen will still be harping on about Covid, and making up nonsense conspiracy theories.

[cwathen]

1) Cwathen will still be harping on about Covid, and making up nonsense conspiracy theories.

Wow. NM it's an official submission now!