The OFFICIAL* Metropoll election sweepstake

[Sput]

Well, if they're going to have election discussions in The Other Place I say it's high time we got things rolling over here! Who would care to guess the English election result?

My guess is a Conservative win, with perhaps a 5 point lead countrywide.

*I'm Hymagumba, and I approved this thread

[barcode]

I going to say it will be David carmon but hung

[cat]

Trouble is that the Tories really need a 10pc lead to even get a majority. It's hard to stress what sort of task they have. First they have to hold every seat they have already (about 200), and with expenses scandals rumbling on, that's not guaranteed; secondly they have to win over another 100 seats that are currently Labour or Lib Dem, many with MPs who have been there for about 13 years and have built up considerable local support through the years. Of course, the expenses scandal might bugger all that up for them. That's just to get a decent workable majority.

The debates will be interesting and could be a game changer.

All this said - I would be very, very surprised if the Tories didn't win. Simply because they have a very strong marginal seats operation. It's one thing to look at uniform swing but another to translate that into the macropolitical landscape in constituencies across the country. The national polls mean very little. If their battleground seat operation stays strong then they'll pull it off quite easily.

[tvmercia]

never mind the general election, i think the real drama will be played out in holyrood ward, prestwich, greater manchester. things are really hotting up - especially with the conservatives planning to cut services at the prestwich civic longfield suite.

metropol's very own political heavyweight, candidate shatliff, is fighting back with a revamped website - minus the coverage of of itv1, however he now provides us with a useful link to faisal's take away.

[Nick Harvey]

No, no, Mr VAT Crime, surely you meant:-

[Dr Lobster*]

i think the best we can hope for is a hung parliament. the tories with any sort of majority... well, bye bye.

[SN2005]

In our constituency our old MP John Horam is standing down, which is a bit of a shame because he is the only one to have been an MP for all three major parties (labour, Tory and SDP) since WWII. I've met him a few times in the past and he was very level-headed, intelligent and genuinely interested, so I'll be sad to see him go. The Tories are standing Jo Johnson (younger brother of Boris) at the next election. I had the misfortune of him knocking on my door on Saturday. He seemed wholly uncomfortable and content to tactlessly and unashamedly dodge my initial questions - so I asked some more.

He was wearing a long tweed coat as well - I know a lot of people who won't mind this, but I also know a lot of people who will. Orpington has always been a tight contest between Conservative and Lib Dem (Labour are a non-party) and has areas of immense wealth and desperate poverty. The final result will be very close.

[Martin Norris]

i think the best we can hope for is a hung parliament. the tories with any sort of majority... well, bye bye.

Opinion polls that have shown the gap between Tories and Labour narrowing ( there was a poll recently that put the gap at 7% ) are conducted on a UK wide basis.
As Andrew Neil has remarked on the BBC TV programme This Week, polls conducted in England only show the Tories way ahead. It is in England that the marginal constituencies that decide the General Election are located.
The Sun newspaper ( which like many people in Liverpool I despise ) is backing the Tories in its English edition.
Has there ever been a UK General Election which the Sun newspaper has backed the losing party ?

[WillPS]

What I'd like (unrealistic): Lib Dem majority

What I'd like (realistically): Hung Parliament with Lib Dems getting a foot in with the balance of power

What I think will happen: Conservative landslide (but not quite on a 1997 scale).

[Alexia]

Interesting header.

[barcode]

Oh dear looks like Alex is on the naughty conner