Metropol

ComRes for ITV News / The Independent

• Conservative - 37% (nc)
• Labour - 28% (-1)
• Liberal Democrat - 28% (+2)
• Others - 7% (-1)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 296 seats (+98)
• Labour - 244 seats (-112)
• Liberal Democrat - 79 seats (+17)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 30 seats short

So, not dissimilar to what we've seen all through this evening. I know it's been lots of numbers and the polls are largely in agreement. I believe ComRes will be the last poll tonight so I'm going to have a look at the figures and put together our poll of polls - along with what I think will happen. I reserve my right to be wrong!

In relation to the MORI poll tomorrow, apparently it's going to be in the London Evening Standard which is why they've polled late and will release tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if the poll agrees with what we've seen tonight. MORI had the Lib Dems on a very low 23% last time.

OK, so let's have a look at what all the polls are pointing towards. Please remember that this prediction doesn't take into account local loyality, local issues or tactical voting - but is an indication fo the way the vote share may go
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Metropoll of Polls - Wednesday 5th May 2010

• Conservative - 36%
• Labour - 27%
• Liberal Democrat - 27%
• Others - 10%

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 286 seats (+78)
• Labour - 253 seats (-96)
• Liberal Democrat - 78 seats (+15)
• Others - 33 seats (+3)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 40 seats short

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So with just hours to go until the polls open, it's certainly looking like the Conservatives are facing an uphill battle to claim a majority. However, the poll of polls shows that there's 9% between the Tories are Labour/Lib Dems. I said a few days ago that's it's largely thought that a 10% lead in the polls could be enough to secure a majority. We're not far off it, and of course there may be people who decide not to go out and vote or those who have only just made up their mind.

If nothing else, the polls indicate clearly that Conservatives will win the popular vote - but how many seats remains to be seen. It also shows an impressive Lib Dem campaign to end on a vote share equal to Labour - especially when many had written off their chances weeks ago. As Square Eyes has said, I think it's clear that the future could well be bright for the Lib Dems. But rocky times ahead for Labour and the Conservatives, whatever the result.

If the Tories don't form a government in any form then I think it will be likely that David Cameron will go, it was his to win and it's looking increasingly likely that the victory everyone thought would come has eluded them.

I think Gordon Brown will go "for the good of the party" in the end and replaced by someone a little more charismatic - but he might yet have chance to form a minority government. He is after all still Prime Minister.

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So here's where I stick my neck out...

Ison's Election Prediction
Conservative Win - Majority of 15 - 30 seats

OK, controversial seeing as I've been following the polls and telling you all how things are pointing towards a hung parliament. However polls tend to under represent the Conservative vote a little and of course all the polls are assuming EXACTLY the same thing will happen in every constituency. Labour, although with support is struggling and I think a lot of people in a lot of constituencies will want to vote for someone different just because it's not the status quo.

In addition to this, although some don't believe this - there are a great number of voters who still haven't made up their mind. They won't ever have been represented in the polls we've received all through the campaign and just a couple of percentages points really can make the difference. OK, some of those undecided voters simply won't go out and vote but there will still be a large amount of people who aren't accounted for.

Finally, will voters bring themselves to vote for the Lib Dems? There will also be a number of people who have intended to vote Lib Dem but won't be able to do it when it comes to the crunch. I'm not saying that's a good or a bad thing, but I think if you speak to a lot of people who intend to vote Lib Dem that their support is the "softest" and may think to themselves that after seeing the seat projections that a vote for them still doesn't count.

So there we go, a few points - feel free to disagree. I would like to say this isn't my personal hope of what will happen, but rather my considered view of what I believe could happen. Only 24 hours to go until we begin to find out - one of the Sunderland constituencies will just be about to declare now!

Right, I'll also stick my neck out.

Matthew's Election Prediction
Hung Parliament - Conservatives 20 - 40 seats short

Again, this isn't wishful thinking by me at all. I just don't think that Cameron has tackled the Clegg threat effectively enough, and a larger proportion of Conservative vote will go Lib Dem than that of Labour votes, as many people seemed to be voting Conservative just because they were different to Gordon Brown.

Of course, with so many people still undecided, this could be wildly wrong. Not long till we find out I suppose.

Barcode Election Prediction

Im going to take a different view, I think many labour and lib dem voters will go towards lib dem in the south west, denting the tories. I also think tories will not get that 6% + lead over them.

SO MY 3 predictions:

* Scottish Tories loses all its seats or just manges to hold the one there got.

* Labour Biggest party but FAR short of maj, anything up 50 seats short OR toris are 46 seats behide but still lose power

* Labour staying in power with the lib dems Gorden brown is removed

Exit polls can some time get the result wrong. In tuesdays Daily Mail Richard Littlejohn wrote a good article about his memories of the 1987 election in which the BBC exit poll predicted a Labour Party win, and in 1992 the BBC's exit poll predicted a hung parliament.

Exit polls have tended to be more wrong than right - especially in 1992 when it was predicted as a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. Of course, that has long since been put down to "bad data" - isn't it always. People didn't tell the pollsters that they were voting Tory and said they were voting Labour instead. This was reflected in opinion polls up until election day and in the marginals exit poll.

The exit poll in 1987 wasn't much better - but the BBC didn't call a Labour victory, they said the Tories would be returned but with a sharply reduced majority of 26. In the end, their majority was reduced - but they won with a 102 seat majority - it's only the fact that there was such a big landslide in 1983 that it wasn't called as either a hung parliament as it would have required a massive swing for Labour to get anywhere close.

Pollsters reviewed their methods after these issues - in 1987 David Dimbleby did say with such a wide margin of error and the fact that it was wide of the mark "What's the point of having an exit poll at all?"

Incidentally in 2005, the poll from MORI and NOP for the BBC/ITV got the Labour majority spot on - so I guess they will be looking to build on that success, but with the result finely balanced I would expect them to be a little wide of the mark again.

It's worth remembering that the exit poll quickly becomes an indication of seat projection once the first results start coming in, because the more results that are declared, the more data there is to work with and it will indicate which way the vote is going - even in those safe seats. As a pollster though, I wouldn't fancy calling the result - but you can't ignore the data you're working with.

I agree with Ison.

I'm unconvinced that the opinion polls accurately reflect what I expect will be a very different turnout. Additionally, some things, like the expenses scandal, have left quite a few safe seats rather more vulnerable than swing can show.

I expect it to be a stronger show for the Liberal Democrats than expected, with the overall result being a Hung Parliament with only a slight difference between Labour and Conservatives.

MORI for London Evening Standard

• Conservative - 36% (nc)
• Labour - 29% (-1)
• Liberal Democrat - 27% (+4)
• Others - 8% (-3)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 281 seats (+83)
• Labour - 261 seats (-95)
• Liberal Democrat - 76 seats (+14)
• Others - 32 seats (+2)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 45 seats short

Well here's the final poll from MORI that was polling right up until 10pm last night. And it broadly agrees with the other polls. The Lib Dem gain is due to the fact that MORI had them on a low 23% but now it's at 27% with again seems to agree with the other polls.

Amazing how many of these polls have all come together really.

The next poll...will be the exit poll of course, and then there's a real important poll to come. The election itself!

Voting is described as 'brisk' so far. Although I have no idea if that creates an advantage for any particular party.

When will the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll be released then?