OK, so let's have a look at what all the polls are pointing towards. Please remember that this prediction doesn't take into account local loyality, local issues or tactical voting - but is an indication fo the way the vote share may go
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Metropoll of Polls - Wednesday 5th May 2010
- Conservative - 36%
- Labour - 27%
- Liberal Democrat - 27%
- Others - 10%
Based on UNS
- Conservative - 286 seats (+78)
- Labour - 253 seats (-96)
- Liberal Democrat - 78 seats (+15)
- Others - 33 seats (+3)
Hung Parliament - Conservatives 40 seats short
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So with just hours to go until the polls open, it's certainly looking like the Conservatives are facing an uphill battle to claim a majority. However, the poll of polls shows that there's 9% between the Tories are Labour/Lib Dems. I said a few days ago that's it's largely thought that a 10% lead in the polls could be enough to secure a majority. We're not far off it, and of course there may be people who decide not to go out and vote or those who have only just made up their mind.
If nothing else, the polls indicate clearly that Conservatives will win the popular vote - but how many seats remains to be seen. It also shows an impressive Lib Dem campaign to end on a vote share equal to Labour - especially when many had written off their chances weeks ago. As Square Eyes has said, I think it's clear that the future could well be bright for the Lib Dems. But rocky times ahead for Labour and the Conservatives, whatever the result.
If the Tories don't form a government in any form then I think it will be likely that David Cameron will go, it was his to win and it's looking increasingly likely that the victory everyone thought would come has eluded them.
I think Gordon Brown will go "for the good of the party" in the end and replaced by someone a little more charismatic - but he might yet have chance to form a minority government. He is after all still Prime Minister.
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So here's where I stick my neck out...
Ison's Election Prediction
Conservative Win - Majority of 15 - 30 seats
OK, controversial seeing as I've been following the polls and telling you all how things are pointing towards a hung parliament. However polls tend to under represent the Conservative vote a little and of course all the polls are assuming EXACTLY the same thing will happen in every constituency. Labour, although with support is struggling and I think a lot of people in a lot of constituencies will want to vote for someone different just because it's not the status quo.
In addition to this, although some don't believe this - there are a great number of voters who still haven't made up their mind. They won't ever have been represented in the polls we've received all through the campaign and just a couple of percentages points really can make the difference. OK, some of those undecided voters simply won't go out and vote but there will still be a large amount of people who aren't accounted for.
Finally, will voters bring themselves to vote for the Lib Dems? There will also be a number of people who have intended to vote Lib Dem but won't be able to do it when it comes to the crunch. I'm not saying that's a good or a bad thing, but I think if you speak to a lot of people who intend to vote Lib Dem that their support is the "softest" and may think to themselves that after seeing the seat projections that a vote for them still doesn't count.
So there we go, a few points - feel free to disagree. I would like to say this isn't my personal hope of what will happen, but rather my considered view of what I believe could happen. Only 24 hours to go until we begin to find out - one of the Sunderland constituencies will just be about to declare now!
