Scottish independence

[Pete]

Latest poll:

25% say they would vote YES (unchanged),
43% no (down one point)
31% say don’t know

Do they also ask if you intend to vote?

[Alexia]

Latest poll:

25% say they would vote YES (unchanged),
43% no (down one point)
31% say don’t know

Do they also ask if you intend to vote?

Of the 1010 polled:
671 certain to vote, 137 very likely to vote, 98 quite likely, 70 not very likely, 34 certain not to vote.

Raw data : http://www.tnsglobal.com/sites/default/ ... 3Nov06.pdf

[scottishtv]

Interesting. Amongst those certain to vote, 29% would vote yes, 47% would vote no, and 24% don't know. 'Don't knows' still making up a pretty big percentage, though the whole of the base above is 729 individuals.

I know I should be looking at the data tables, but my eyes are drawn in by the glossy sheet with pictures from the TNS press release.

[Gavin Scott]

[Pete]

Yet interestingly, the poll said a fair amount of the moves from don't know to yes was with the young - or them lot who don't vote.

I suspect turnout will have a HUGE effect on whichever way it swings.

[Gavin Scott]

Are you a Better Together supporter as facebook suggests you are?

Your name keeps getting flung at me in the sponsored ads.

[Pete]

Stupid FB ads.

[WillPS]

Yes. Of course "undecideds" are going to be frogmarched to polling booths. Vote or die.

I've developed something of a habit of reading funny books before bed, particularly when my eyes are frazzled. Currently I'm enjoying "Is it Just Me or is Everything Shit" and "Scotland's Future". The latter particularly satisfying as it's huge and was free.

[Alexia]

Original Data : http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/p ... _poll2.pdf

The survey omitted to ask (as far as I can tell) whether the respondents were likely to vote or not. The question was : "Which way do you think you are most likely to vote, “˜Yes” or "˜No"?" which kinda presumes and assumes on the part of the questioner that the respondee will be voting. However, given that the polls listed here http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-i ... referendum show that in the most part only 2% or less of people wouldn't vote, I'd say this question is moot. People WILL be voting in their numbers on this, it seems.

[Gavin Scott]

I've developed something of a habit of reading funny books before bed, particularly when my eyes are frazzled. Currently I'm enjoying "Is it Just Me or is Everything Shit" and "Scotland's Future". The latter particularly satisfying as it's huge and was free.

Very droll, I'm sure. A great shame that none of the humour rubs off on you.

[iSon]

Original Data : http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/p ... _poll2.pdf

The survey omitted to ask (as far as I can tell) whether the respondents were likely to vote or not. The question was : "Which way do you think you are most likely to vote, “˜Yes” or "˜No"?" which kinda presumes and assumes on the part of the questioner that the respondee will be voting. However, given that the polls listed here http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/scottish-i ... referendum show that in the most part only 2% or less of people wouldn't vote, I'd say this question is moot. People WILL be voting in their numbers on this, it seems.

Of course it shouldn't be assumed that because 2% of people say they won't vote means that 98% of people will. Even some of those that have already given their intentions as yes or no may not turn up on the day. The don't knows may not be converted or given enough of a reason to vote one way or another so may also stay at home. Being approached by a pollster and asked questions over the phone or online is different to having to make the effort of visiting their polling place.

However, I do agree that turnout will be generally good and the result is much more likely to be closer than many would give credit for. I think when it comes to the crunch however that the no vote may take it. That's my considered opinion and not my personal one. If I was resident in Scotland then I would be certain to vote yes.