Metropol

Isonstine wrote:Northern Ireland has 18 seats, which if all of the parties were to support the Conservatives would give them 329. However, it's worth noting that Sinn Fein don't take their seats so I don't think they could technically be counted on for "support"?

One of the consequences of Sinn Fein not taking their seats is that, depending on how many seats they win, it lowers the winning post of 326 by at least a couple of seats, meaning if it is really close, it could be crucial. Northern Ireland could also be crucial in a very tight result as the Ulster Unionists have an electoral pact with the Conservatives.

And some more...
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YouGov for The Sun

• Conservative - 35% (+1)
• Labour - 27% (-1)
• Liberal Democrat - 28% (nc)
• Others - 10% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 283 seats (+85)
• Labour - 250 seats (-106)
• Liberal Democrat - 86 seats (+24)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 43 seats short

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And fair enough, the poll released by ComRes is fairly interesting as it gives a result that we haven't seen for a long time - a 10 point poll lead for the Conservatives. This kind of gap is

generally the kind of lead they would need to secure a majority, but that's in an ideal world without a strong Lib Dem showing.

ComRes for Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday

• Conservative - 38% (+2)
• Labour - 28% (-1)
• Liberal Democrat - 25% (-1)
• Others - 9% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 311 seats (+113)
• Labour - 240 seats (-116)
• Liberal Democrat - 70 seats (+8)
• Others - 29 seats (-1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 15 seats short

So it's a real boost for the Tories - following the earlier poll from Angus Reid which put them in with a shout of a majority, the ComRes poll puts them even closer. However, it relies on a drop in Lib Dem support, and a 10% lead of their nearest rival. These are the kind of conditions which would pretty much assure them of a majority so I'm now really interested to see if other polls will reflect this in the coming days. Certainly over the last few days the polls have been looking slightly more positive for the Conservatives - but that's to be expected as more people make up their minds.

Ulster Unionists I believe have NONE! and the DUP are making a big fuss there would not support the tories.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8620102.stm

Tonight, it's the other way round as the polls bring some not so good news for the Tories.
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YouGov for The Sun

• Conservative - 34% (-1)
• Labour - 28% (+1)
• Liberal Democrat - 29% (+1)
• Others - 9% (-1)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 258 seats (+60)
• Labour - 268 seats (-88)
• Liberal Democrat - 93 seats (+31)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 58 seats short

OK so the change from last night's figures are all within margin of error so they don't tell us that much. However, it marginally puts Labour as the largest party and shows how finely balanced things are based on opinion polls at the moment.

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ICM for The Guardian

• Conservative - 33% (-3)
• Labour - 28% (-1)
• Liberal Democrat - 28% (+1)
• Others - 11% (+3)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 250 seats (+52)
• Labour - 276 seats (-80)
• Liberal Democrat - 93 seats (+31)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 50 seats short

And anther poll showing Labour as the largest party and this will be paricularly disappointing for the Conservatives as it shows a significant drop in their lead. Although the large increase in "others" could also suggest that it's an outsider. However, it's not out of the realms of possiblity that in the last few days people start to change their party allegiance as they make their minds up. But as I've stated before, that also includes the floating voters who may not make up their mind until polling day. And, as they're usually under-represented in opinion polls, they could really make a difference between a party being just short, to having an overall majority.

Is there any indication which of the 'Others' will get seats? Is it likely to be an existing party or a breakthrough for UKIP or (heaven forbid) BNP?

it seems the lastet polls have brought the tories down again.

WillPS wrote:Is there any indication which of the 'Others' will get seats? Is it likely to be an existing party or a breakthrough for UKIP or (heaven forbid) BNP?

It would be either SNP or Plaid Cymru. When looking at the nationalist parties, the universal national swing prediction doesn't really work as it doesn't account for the fact that voting in the nations is different to the national figures and so tend to be rather under represented in opinion polls.

I wouldn't be surprised if the nationalists picked up around 5 seats, but that remains to be seen.

The figures don't suggest a UKIP or BNP breakthrough - but as I've said before, there's always local factors. Such as UKIP's Nigel Farage running in the speaker John Bercow's Buckingham seat and also other areas where the vote for the marginal parties has been rising year on year. There's also the real possibility of the Green's returning their first MP too so it doesn't show the exact picture.

However, it's largely accepted as the lesser of the evils when it comes to looking at what we can expect result wise - but don't take it to be a final prediction. The exit poll for BBC/ITV/Sky will probably look considerably different as this will be a wide scale poll conducted in marginal seats and will interview people AFTER they've voted so is a clearer indication of how the vote has gone. Exit polls aren't perfect either, but in 2005 it got the number of Labour seats spot on - but when things are a little more uncertain it doesn't tend to get it as near to the mark as they would like.

A little caution on the ICM and YouGov polls that came out tonight. They both had fieldwork conducted over the weekend, which usually negatively affects the Conservative share of the vote compared to the final result, something to with the demographics of Conservative supporters and their likelihood to be at home at weekend. A bank holiday weekend makes this even worse, an example is the Populus poll for The Times with fieldwork conducted during the bank holiday weekend before the 2005 general election. It showed Labour leading the Tories by a massive 13 per cent, the final result on polling day was a Labour lead of 3 per cent.

Apart from YouGov who poll every day, the only other polls that won't have samples contaminated by the weekend period will be the final opinion polls of the campaign which will be published in Thursday's newspapers.

Another marginal seats poll has come out, this time from Ipsos MORI. It indicates a 7% Labour to Conservative swing due to a surge in Conservative support in those seats, which would just be enough for a wafer-thin Conservative majority. However, that is on the assumption that the Tories hold all the seats they notionally have at the moment. Other marginals polls have suggested that the Con->Lib swing is small compared to the Lab->Lib swing, so the Tories might not lose a huge amount of seats to the Lib Dems, but given how tight the MORI poll thinks it could be, a couple of seats might be all it takes to stop the Tories crossing the winning post. If it is that tight, Northern Ireland could be crucial.

An interesting poll from Opinium...
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Opinium for Daily Express

• Conservative - 33% (-1)
• Labour - 28% (+3)
• Liberal Democrat - 27% (-1)
• Others - 12% (-1)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 253 seats (+55)
• Labour - 279 seats (-77)
• Liberal Democrat - 87 seats (+25)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 47 seats short

So is this a last minute boost for Labour? well with just one poll it's difficult to tell - but Opinium had Labour on a low 25% last time so this could simply be a bit of a correction. Either way it's not exactly a surge for Labour as it would still leave them well short. I await later polls with interest - we should have at YouGov and ComRes and possibly some additional ones as the pollsters attempt to predict what's going on.

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And thanks to Lee M for info about the marginals poll by Ipsos MORI. The swing recorded is enough to give the Conservatives an extremely slim majority - but like Lee M says it relies on a complete swing from Labour to Conservatives and is assuming the same swing in every constituency. Mind you, our seat calculations based on universal national swing assume exactly the same thing. So it's an interesting development but doesn't assure the Tories of victory just yet. It could though make a few voters decide to either lend their support to the Conservatives to ensure they win, or make people head away from them. But these voters will be having to make up their mind anyway so talk of a Conservative majority again might not affect them that much.

Now we have YouGov.
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YouGov for The Sun

• Conservative - 35% (+1)
• Labour - 28% (nc)
• Liberal Democrat - 28% (-1)
• Others - 9% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 272 seats (+74)
• Labour - 261 seats (-95)
• Liberal Democrat - 86 seats (+24)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 54 seats short

So some slightly better news for the Conservatives courtesy of YouGov but again margin of error stuff and doesn't really show us that much. Other than that polling still points towards to a hung parliament. ComRes still to come.