james2001 wrote: ↑Sun 09 Jan, 2022 11.17
Scotland's likely to be the last due to the SNP having the most reason to keep them as part of their political game playing with Westminster, though the way Mark Drakeford's been acting recently makes it seem just as likely to be Wales. Both are clearly going to keep restrictions much longer than needed regardless anyway.
I would say Wales will be the last to drop restrictions. Yes of course Sturgeon & Drakeford would inevitably align themselves with what is going on in Europe than what is going on in England, so both were very keen to introduce restrictions. However it will get harder and harder to ignore the fact that the lack of restrictions in England is increasingly being vindicated, making it harder to claim that tougher restrictions are either justified or working. Sturgeon I believe already knows that, but to save face she has to keep them for a while and will shortly just allow them to time-out, being that her previous baseline was pretty much the same as England's plan B measures anyway she will still have some measures in place after her new restrictions end so can still claim to be taking interventions when England goes back to plan A.
Drakeford on the other hand will be an entirely different kettle of fish. I honestly believe the man is becoming unhinged, he will never stop wanting more and more restrictions and will ignore any and all advice that doesn't support his belief in that approach.
His actions have been very worrying ever since his insane directive that supermarkets had to seal off some sections during previous lockdowns lest non essential products be obtained, leading to a 68000-signature Senedd petition on the subject (the largest ever, by some margin). Drakeford appeared totally unmoved and did not even seem to understand (nor particularly care) about the argument being made. He had ordered non essential retail closed and over his dead body would he be defied by people simply going to the supermarket instead. He did not want to talk about it. King Drakeford had spoken, you will not buy clothes or kettles during a lockdown and that is that. No other UK nation ever went that far.
Most recently he has started referring to restrictions as 'protections' just as Sturgeon has been doing, but also somewhat seems to be doubling down on his position that restrictions are the right thing to be doing with his scathing attack on the UK government for not having more, and he is clearly frustrated that Wales isn't as restricted as he would like it to be (I think if funding for a lockdown was available he'd have done it). Again, any suggestion that he is getting too out of step given that England not restricting hasn't been the unmitigated disaster it was claimed is falling on deaf ears.
Most worringly, I do honestly believe that Drakeford might actually turn the screw further and introduce further restrictions to Wales in the full knowledge that not only is there no central government assistance in place to support going further, but nor will any be forthcoming either as the clear path being beaten is moving away from restrictions, not bringing more in. He won't care, he'll do it anyway and claim he is keeping people 'safe'.
Even if not, I don't think Drakeford has got any intention at all of dropping restrictions in Wales before the spring, and no amount of pressure is going to move him on the issue.
EDIT - Breaking today, the Welsh Rugby Union has announced it may play it's 6 nations home games in England to get around Drakeford's stadium crowd ban. Each home game played at Cardiff brings in £20M of revenue to the Welsh economy. It's money Wales can't afford to lose. Does Drakeford care? No. Instead he's defending this potential catastrophic loss to the Welsh economy - and giveaway to the English economy, ignoring the warnings about how the Welsh economy is being damaged out of all proportion to the risk and trying to justify it by prattling on about 'the storm of Omicron'.
all new Phil wrote:Seriously though they do seem to have been somewhat vindicated in their refusal to introduce stronger restrictions over Christmas and New Year. I was very sceptical and feared we were heading for a huge spike in hospitalisations and deaths but I think overall, the approach not just over the last few weeks but since last spring has been correct.
Let's be honest though, it's only the backbenchers pressuring Johnson against restrictions (and particularly the plan B vote) which have sent England down that path. Johnson almost certainly would have wanted more restrictions initially. But since it's all gone rather better than expected, it looks like Johnson may recover from this challenge to his authority by taking the credit for keeping restrictions out of England (and possibly leading the world away from them) when I suspect it was the last thing he actually wanted to do at the time.