Metropol

So another poll, and it provides a bit of a shocker. First, the data...
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MORI for News of the World

• Conservative - 36% (+4)
• Labour - 30% (+2)
• Liberal Democrat - 23% (-9)
• Others - 11% (+3)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 276 seats (+78)
• Labour - 280 seats (-76)
• Liberal Democrat - 63 seats (+1)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 46 seats short

So could it just be an outsider or just a fluke of the data they had to work with? You tend to see oddities crop up from time to time in polls, and going by the fact that the other pollsters show a different story then it's difficult to take this one at face value. Ironically though, the fall in Lib Dem support doesn't do the Tories any favour, even though they've made the "biggest recovery" - because it appears if this poll is to be believed, that Lib Dem voters have pretty much decided to either vote Tory or Labour in equal numbers, it just results in a status quo as either the Conservatives or Labour the same amount of seats short as before. However, due to the swing back to Labour, it's better for them as it suggests they will be able to hold on to more seats.

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The YouGov figures tend to agree with the rest of the figures that we've seen this evening and over the last few days. Again it's a slightly better picture for the Tories, but still not brilliant.

YouGov for Sunday Times

• Conservative - 35% (+1)
• Labour - 27% (-2)
• Liberal Democrat - 28% (-1)
• Others - 10% (+2)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 283 seats (+85)
• Labour - 250 seats (-106)
• Liberal Democrat - 86 seats (+24)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 43 seats short

And another... does seem to suggest the figures from MORI are an outsider - but the trend does seem to be that the Conservatives are making a mini comeback to at least be the largest party.
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BPIX for Mail on Sunday

• Conservative - 34% (+3)
• Labour - 26% (-2)
• Liberal Democrat - 30% (-2)
• Others - 10% (+1)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 271 seats (+73)
• Labour - 242 seats (-114)
• Liberal Democrat - 106 seats (+44)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 55 seats short

So we have the daily YouGov tracker poll out and it shows a bit of a return to form for the Lib Dems so certainly doesn't appear they're on the slide...
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YouGov for The Sun

• Conservative - 34% (-1)
• Labour - 28% (+1)
• Liberal Democrat - 30% (+2)
• Others - 8% (-2)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 255 seats (+57)
• Labour - 267 seats (-89)
• Liberal Democrat - 97 seats (+35)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 59 seats short

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Really not sure what to make of the way things are going. All the usual trends that have been expected so far haven't come to fruition but then that's what has made this campaign interesting so far. I have a feeling the main parties are thinking that the focus should be on the debate on Thursday which will have big exposure on BBC1 and just a week before the election may actually help people make their mind up more than headlines and soundbites.

The polls that you are mentioning Isontine have been conducted on a UK wide basis, and therefore include areas where the Tories don't get much support. The vast majority of seats where this election will be decided are in England.
What is the latest situation with regards to England only polls, and in particular what is the latest opinion poll ratings for Basildon ? Ever since 1974 Basildon has always backed the winning party in general elections.

ITN have had some more local polls and showed the Tories doing badly compared to the lib dem in the south west, but the tories are getting 40% + in Midlands

A right mix of polls out tonight...
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ComRes for ITV News / The Independent

• Conservative - 32% (-2)
• Labour - 28% (nc)
• Liberal Democrat - 31% (+2)
• Others - 9% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 236 seats (+38)
• Labour - 273 seats (-83)
• Liberal Democrat - 110 seats (+48)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 53 seats short

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ICM for the Guardian

• Conservative - 33% (-2)
• Labour - 28% (+2)
• Liberal Democrat - 30% (-1)
• Others - 9% (+1)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 245 seats (+47)
• Labour - 275 seats (-81)
• Liberal Democrat - 99 seats (+37)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 51 seats short

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Opinium for Daily Express

• Conservative - 34% (+2)
• Labour - 25% (-1)
• Liberal Democrat - 28% (-1)
• Others - 13% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 283 seats (+85)
• Labour - 241 seats (-115)
• Liberal Democrat - 95 seats (+33)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 43 seats short

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YouGov for The Sun

• Conservative - 33% (-1)
• Labour - 28% (nc)
• Liberal Democrat - 29% (-1)
• Others - 10% (+2)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 247 seats (+49)
• Labour - 276 seats (-80)
• Liberal Democrat - 96 seats (+34)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 50 seats short

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I think it's fair to say that overall the results don't look good for the Tories who I guess will be hoping to begin to see things turning around for them. Over the last couple of days they appear to have made up some ground but this doesn't really seem to have been held with the trend generally moving away from the Conservatives. I guess Labour won't be best pleased with the results either as it hardly shows them picking up. Although I'm sure the Lib Dems would love to see their poll rating go higher, I figure they will be pleased it's staying where it is as it means they can dance the political tango with both Labour and the Conservative over just who Nick Clegg might work with in the event of a hung parliament.

With the election getting closer, it doesn't appear the traditional campaigning and soundbites will do much to change people's minds so I guess the final debate on Thursday will be seen as even more crucial than ever. Of course though, campaigns are carefully plotted and it's unlikely any party will have wanted to do anything "big" in the first weeks of campaigning as people are likely to have forgotten a few days later so I think the last week of campaigning could also provide some interesting headlines.

Or maybe we'll just go limping into polling day expecting a hung parliament - only for the opinion polls and the predictions based on universal national swing to have been proven wrong once the results starting coming in.

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And Martin, there's some regional figures from YouGov that have been released by PoliticsHome and they seem to suggest a bit of a North / South divide (surprise surprise) between the parties. What's interesting though is that the Lib Dem vote seems strong in most regions at the expense of both Conservatives and Labour, although Labour seem to be taking the bigger hit when it comes to people moving over to the Lib Dems.

The data is here...
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/ ... gions.html

But if we take out the potential votes from Scotland and Wales, where as you indicate that the bigger parties haven't been doing that well, it gives an England only result of:

• Conservative - 35%
• Labour - 27%
• Liberal Democrat - 32%
• Others - 6%

(the data is a little bit old, but is still pretty relevant as we haven't seen a massive change in the polls over the last few days)

So it doesn't actually paint too much of a different picture compared to polling carried out UK wide - which is interesting because usually you see a big shift when it comes to support. However, this may have something to do with Labour losing support in both Scotland and Wales, where they are usually able to hold on even if the English vote goes against them. The Conservatives haven't seen a massive shift in the nations and the Lib Dem support appears fairly solid throughout so it would explain why things have balanced out.

Don't count you chicken yet about labour loosing seats in Scotland.

I didn't mention anything about Labour losing seats in Scotland. I did mention about a fall in their support which is reflected in opinion poll figures.

If you plumb the figures into Electoral Calculus then it gives a break down of what seats will change hands based on the regional figures from PoliticalHome. Unfortunately I can't link to it, but I copied the data and have uploaded it if you're interested:

http://up.metropol247.co.uk/Isonstine/E ... 260410.pdf

Oliver Letwin, david davis and Liam Fox would both lose there seats!

barcode wrote:Oliver Letwin, david davis and Liam Fox would both lose there seats!

Which one of which three of which both?

Idiot!

Nick Harvey wrote:

barcode wrote:Oliver Letwin, david davis and Liam Fox would both lose there seats!

Which one of which three of which both?

Idiot!

just because its YOU i;ll explain, I was looking at the page and came across the Oliver and liam, and so copy and pasted and made made a post "both" then I thought I take one more look, but I found Davis, so I ADDED that one in, but forgetting to change "both"