A right mix of polls out tonight...
______________________________________________________________________________________________
ComRes for ITV News / The Independent
- Conservative - 32% (-2)
- Labour - 28% (nc)
- Liberal Democrat - 31% (+2)
- Others - 9% (nc)
Based on UNS
- Conservative - 236 seats (+38)
- Labour - 273 seats (-83)
- Liberal Democrat - 110 seats (+48)
- Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 53 seats short
______________________________________________________________________________________________
ICM for the Guardian
- Conservative - 33% (-2)
- Labour - 28% (+2)
- Liberal Democrat - 30% (-1)
- Others - 9% (+1)
Based on UNS
- Conservative - 245 seats (+47)
- Labour - 275 seats (-81)
- Liberal Democrat - 99 seats (+37)
- Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 51 seats short
______________________________________________________________________________________________
Opinium for Daily Express
- Conservative - 34% (+2)
- Labour - 25% (-1)
- Liberal Democrat - 28% (-1)
- Others - 13% (nc)
Based on UNS
- Conservative - 283 seats (+85)
- Labour - 241 seats (-115)
- Liberal Democrat - 95 seats (+33)
- Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Conservatives 43 seats short
______________________________________________________________________________________________
YouGov for The Sun
- Conservative - 33% (-1)
- Labour - 28% (nc)
- Liberal Democrat - 29% (-1)
- Others - 10% (+2)
Based on UNS
- Conservative - 247 seats (+49)
- Labour - 276 seats (-80)
- Liberal Democrat - 96 seats (+34)
- Others - 31 seats (+1)
Hung Parliament - Labour 50 seats short
______________________________________________________________________________________________
I think it's fair to say that overall the results don't look good for the Tories who I guess will be hoping to begin to see things turning around for them. Over the last couple of days they appear to have made up some ground but this doesn't really seem to have been held with the trend generally moving away from the Conservatives. I guess Labour won't be best pleased with the results either as it hardly shows them picking up. Although I'm sure the Lib Dems would love to see their poll rating go higher, I figure they will be pleased it's staying where it is as it means they can dance the political tango with both Labour and the Conservative over just who Nick Clegg might work with in the event of a hung parliament.
With the election getting closer, it doesn't appear the traditional campaigning and soundbites will do much to change people's minds so I guess the final debate on Thursday will be seen as even more crucial than ever. Of course though, campaigns are carefully plotted and it's unlikely any party will have wanted to do anything "big" in the first weeks of campaigning as people are likely to have forgotten a few days later so I think the last week of campaigning could also provide some interesting headlines.
Or maybe we'll just go limping into polling day expecting a hung parliament - only for the opinion polls and the predictions based on universal national swing to have been proven wrong once the results starting coming in.
---
And Martin, there's some regional figures from YouGov that have been released by PoliticsHome and they seem to suggest a bit of a North / South divide (surprise surprise) between the parties. What's interesting though is that the Lib Dem vote seems strong in most regions at the expense of both Conservatives and Labour, although Labour seem to be taking the bigger hit when it comes to people moving over to the Lib Dems.
The data is here...
http://www.politicshome.com/uk/article/ ... gions.html
But if we take out the potential votes from Scotland and Wales, where as you indicate that the bigger parties haven't been doing that well, it gives an England only result of:
- Conservative - 35%
- Labour - 27%
- Liberal Democrat - 32%
- Others - 6%
(the data is a little bit old, but is still pretty relevant as we haven't seen a massive change in the polls over the last few days)
So it doesn't actually paint too much of a different picture compared to polling carried out UK wide - which is interesting because usually you see a big shift when it comes to support. However, this may have something to do with Labour losing support in both Scotland and Wales, where they are usually able to hold on even if the English vote goes against them. The Conservatives haven't seen a massive shift in the nations and the Lib Dem support appears fairly solid throughout so it would explain why things have balanced out.
Oliver Letwin, david davis and Liam Fox would both lose there seats! 