2015 UK Election

[Alexia]

You are pedantic at the moment.

I'm not pedantic, I just think you're not contributing much to this thread except empty hyperbole and unresearched assertations. Which is usually what I bring to threads, so please stop muscling in on my territory.

In all seriousness, like I've said before, trying to predict an election like this one, this far out, is ridiculous. Anything could happen in the next two weeks. And it probably will. Nothing's settled yet. And who knows, if Miliband "wins" and doesn't do a deal with the SNP, a Labour rebellion could have him sidelined.

[barcode]

You are pedantic at the moment.

I'm not pedantic, I just think you're not contributing much to this thread except empty hyperbole and unresearched assertations. Which is usually what I bring to threads, so please stop muscling in on my territory.

In all seriousness, like I've said before, trying to predict an election like this one, this far out, is ridiculous. Anything could happen in the next two weeks. And it probably will. Nothing's settled yet. And who knows, if Miliband "wins" and doesn't do a deal with the SNP, a Labour rebellion could have him sidelined.

To be fair some of the company are making unresearched assertations,
This has to be near the top: http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... edictions/

I hope your right about a labour rebellion dealing with ed.

[Alexia]

Some websites, as well as reporting and analysing polls, are also making political commentary... May2015 (New Statesman) have tweeted some quite vicious things about the Greens for example. They shouldn't be doing that, at least, not under the polling site banner.

[robschneider]

I think UKIP will do much better than the polls are suggesting. It's just that people aren't admitting to voting for them because the mainstream media have given them this "racist" tag, particularly since the demise of the BNP. Mark my words, they will do very well next month.

[all new Phil]

Nahhh.

[bilky asko]

I saw this in the window of a UKIP shop in a neighbouring constituency yesterday.



Though there's no indication of what the numbers are or where they're from, if they're what I think they are, the Green figure seems surprisingly high to me.

EDIT: It has been pointed out to me by WillPS that those numbers add up to 143.

[cwathen]

cwathen must have been drinking something when he wrote that. Nothing is set in stone, you cant rule out UKIP getting six seats, ( there doing very localised campaigning in 10-15 seats ) nor the SNP doubling or x5 its seats. Nor can we rule out the tories or labour getting 300.

Of course nothing is set in stone, and 2 weeks is a very long time in an election campaign. The problem with all the opinion polls is that however statistically valid the sample used may be, the sample size is only a few thousand (many not even that) versus the circa-30 million people who are likely to vote. And given that the SNP's over-riding ideology is to break up the UK - which was conclusively voted against only 8 months ago, combined with Nicola Sturgeon having been in office for only 6 months, and everyone (including the party itself) ruling out a coalition, will they really be able to capture pretty much the whole of Scotland as predicted?

As others have said, it is far too early to start calling things, but I do believe that when it comes down to it we are unlikely to see the SNP make gains as big as predicted, nor do I believe either the Conservatives or Libdems will fall quite as far as predicted. Even the polls predict that the Conservatives and Libdems are only around 15 seats away from being able to form another coalition, and as we get closer my gut feeling is that they will end up getting those seats.

We'll all know in a couple of weeks anyway.

[Critique]

I think UKIP will do much better than the polls are suggesting. It's just that people aren't admitting to voting for them because the mainstream media have given them this "racist" tag, particularly since the demise of the BNP. Mark my words, they will do very well next month.

RACIST?? UKIP?? Next you'll be telling me that they've been sexist and homophobic too...

[Alexia]

I think UKIP will do much better than the polls are suggesting. It's just that people aren't admitting to voting for them because the mainstream media have given them this "racist" tag, particularly since the demise of the BNP. Mark my words, they will do very well next month.

Generally when someone is given a tag, it's for a reason.

Your tag is "fucktard."

[all new Phil]

Generally when someone is given a tag, it's for a reason.

Your tag is "fucktard."

all new Phil gave kudos

[bilky asko]

I saw this in the window of a UKIP shop in a neighbouring constituency yesterday.

As a guess, I have taken those figures to be some sort of opinion poll, converted the numbers into percentages, and plotted them on a graph with results from 1997 to 2010.



Notes:

I have taken "Independent" to mean the Alliance for Green Socialism, as there is no independent candidate this time round.

The Lib Dem candidate in 2005 and 2010 was a well-known, and well-liked, local college teacher, who is not standing in 2015.

There have been a few local scandals involving both Labour and Conservative councillors, which have been seized upon by local UKIP members.

Summary:

The numbers seem to range from being a bit off, to being very wildly off. The figures here suggest that nobody would lose their deposit, for example, which doesn't seem likely at all.