2015 UK Election

[martindtanderson]

We'll see. The Routemasters were not immediately popular in London but they're now hailed as the best bus London ever had. The recognition that London's needs are like no other is the most positive bit for me.

I say all this, I'd definitely not vote for Boris if I were a Londoner.

The new Routemasters may harken back, and make people happy to look at, but they do not solve the problems, which the previous buses did solve. It was an (expensive) PR move by the Mayor - the same Mayor who wants his name attached to everything. Boris Bus, Boris Bikes, Boris Island...

[robschneider]

So Dave is shouting about record low unemployment but conveniently not about the drop on average wages.

Truth is, we have a dangerously large low pay cultIre growing now where people once on 25-30k are now being forced to do minimum wage unskilled jobs. It's not a sustainable model.

[DTV]

So Dave is shouting about record low unemployment

Is it record low unemployment? In the 1950s it was below 1%.

[ASO]

So how much damage do you think Douglas Carswell defecting to UKIP will do to the Tories' election campaign?

[DTV]

So how much damage do you think Douglas Carswell defecting to UKIP will do to the Tories' election campaign?

Not very much - I think the real problem for the Tories is that if more defect to UKIP or UKIP get more seats in 2015 then it'll mainly benefit Labour - which is a fault on the Kipper's part because they believe that they take a substantial vote from Labour when in actual vote less than 10% of UKIP voters are ex-Labour and. despite what the media said, they didn't do any damage to Labour in the Council Elections. The Media played it out as they were taking Labour seats in traditional Labour areas when actually they were taking Liberal Democrat, BNP and Tory seats in Labour areas - hence why Labour still rules a lot of Northern Councils.

I think it will make the Tories play their 'we are the only ones who'll guarantee you a referendum' card even more often to please the back-benchers and UKIP defectees but I doubt they'll want to stray too far into the Kippers policies (which lets face it are mainly the Tories Policies circa. 1960s) otherwise Farage will use it against them - the Tories are in a difficult position because UKIP love to go on the defensive and this rules out attacking them outright or Farage'll play the 'they don't take us seriously' card, if he has any left in his deck.

Let's just hope if they do get some MPs they don't all behave like the arseholes they are in Strasbourg - Stupid Comments, Voting against the national interest on purpose and shouting Nazi Phrases at German MEPs.

[ASO]

I agree with Farage on the fact that if Carswell does win the seat, there will be more defectors, so even if it isn't damaging them now, in the long term, it's a bad thing.

I agree with pretty much all that you have said.

[barcode]

I agree with Farage on the fact that if Carswell does win the seat, there will be more defectors, so even if it isn't damaging them now, in the long term, it's a bad thing.

I agree with pretty much all that you have said.

But that does not mean UKIP could retain the seats...

[robschneider]

I think a lot of Kippers are like me in that they're disillusioned with the Tories but would never ever vote Labour. In the same way that the Lib Dems picked up a lot of people pissed off with Brown but won't vote Tory because of some hangup about someone who led them 20 years ago.

[Alexia]

No, a lot of Kippers are just reactionary idiots who don't actually give a lot of reasoned thought into their political party of choice. They just subscribe to this doo-lally ideal Enid-Blyton-esque image Herr Farage and his lackeys paint of an England free from European aggression ruled by the white genteel middle classes, where smoking in pubs is harmless, everyone drinks real ale and G&Ts, and trains are hauled by steam engines. FUCK OFF.

[scottishtv]

An interesting commentary from Peter Kellner of YouGov is here.

Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.

The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound to play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.

That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.

Personally, I think this gives Farage way too much credit.

[DTV]

I highly doubt Farage wants the Conservative Party destroyed as that would surely not benefit the right and, as much as I detest Mr Farage, I don't think he's an utter moron.

I believe what will happen to UKIP is that they may do well getting half-a-dozen maybe a dozen, at best, seats in 2015. While Dr. Sked formed UKIP as a cross-party single issue party it is now filled with mainly Thatcherite members - in fact there is definitely more in common with the majority of UKIP MEPs and the Tory Backbenches than there is across the Conservative Party. So I expect it'll end up in a situation similar to the National Liberals and end up in a partnership and eventually a merger with the Tory Party - similar to the LIB-SDP join in the 80s. No matter how much Cameron insists it'll never happen - the Tories are a party with a history of mergers, Liberal-Unionists, National Liberals and their alliance with the UUP have all shown that the Conservatives prefer everyone on the same ideological wavelength to be together.

That is however only one of two options - the other is of course that the Tory Party splits in two with the Eurosceptics going of and joining UKIP, of course handing Labour a long-term electoral advantage. Although I doubt the Tories will split, I mean they haven't got to the point under New Labour where over half of the party were regularly defying the whip because you had a Right-Wing leader leading a centre-left party. Who knows what'll happen maybe they'll split, maybe they'll merge or maybe split then merge. But everyone is acting like Carswell'll be UKIP's first MP - Bob Spink, the previous honourable member for Castle Point, defected to UKIP in 2008 from the Tories and that led to nothing.