2015 UK Election
- Gavin Scott
- Admin
- Posts: 6442
- Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 13.16
- Location: Edinburgh
- Contact:
all new Phil wrote:I've got an out-there prediction to make.
Tory and SNP coalition (or looser agreement)
I think the Tories will make them an offer they can't refuse on devolution of powers (esp on spending) in return for English votes for English people (so therefore SNP not being able to vote down a Tory budget). I also think there's a grudging respect between Cameron and Sturgeon.
It'd mean Scotland gets the autonomy it's after on austerity or otherwise.
Well, it would be a misguided man to dismiss your idea entirely. This is shaping up to be a most unpredictable election.all new Phil wrote:You mark my words - the Tories will make them an offer they can't refuse. It's in their interests long-term to do so. Why would the Scottish people mind what would effectively be Tories in power in England and the SNP in Scotland?
Your suggestion that the SNP could be persuaded on the promise of greater devolution and tax and welfare control would be difficult to implement because it would never get through a vote - even if all +/- 50 SNP MPs backed it . There is absolutely zero appetite from the Conservative back benches for it, nor the front bench come to that. Its been made abundantly clear over the last year that the English votes anomaly and the Barnett formula will be resolved - but not by 'rewarding' Scotland.
This leads on to the fatal flaw - based on the pre-manifesto announcement of the Conservatives, scrapping the Barnett formula as laid out in the Smith Commission will leave Scotland £6bn worse off - and that's without getting into any kind of discussion about gas and oil revenues (yes, yes they're worth nothing and will never recover in price..).
So it absolutely wouldn't be the 'tories in the south and SNP in the north', as the starting point of any Scotland budget in this circumstance would be a block grant based on the austerity figures London decide upon.
As a side note, I actually don't think Ms Sturgeon has respect for Cameron - grudging or otherwise. She does however get on very well with Ruth Davidson and Kez Dougdale in Scotland, so that really just points to Cameron being, in essence, an absolute cunt.
So, if Labour refuse to accept a confidence and supply arrangement from the SNP then I think we will see Cameron attempt to hold a minority government together periodically propped up by the NI parties and UKIP. A shoogly peg.
Very messy and probably shortlived as parliaments go. Strategically, having the SNP fight to scupper on a vote by vote basis will increase the appetite to revisit independence. Everything that's happening at the moment - including smear tactics from the forth estate again, so soon since the referendum are creating an ineffable, unmistakable trajectory.
Oh give over. You can't have a referendum every 5 years.Gavin Scott wrote:Everything that's happening at the moment - including smear tactics from the forth estate again, so soon since the referendum are creating an ineffable, unmistakable trajectory.
It's looking good for a Labour/SNP link up of sorts as things stand. The SNP should embrace that, detoxify themselves (by promising not to campaign for independence in the term of the next government) and then I think we'd have a government with a proper mandate both sides of the border. The unanswered question of when the SNP will "strike" has already spoiled their chances of a formal coalition.
Oh yes we can, I'll be demanding a referendum if the Tories get back in again.WillPS wrote:Oh give over. You can't have a referendum every 5 years.Gavin Scott wrote:Everything that's happening at the moment - including smear tactics from the forth estate again, so soon since the referendum are creating an ineffable, unmistakable trajectory.

Bigger question has to be why would anyone vote for David Cameron? He has double the national debt, Not even labour did that and at least we had stuff to show for all money labour spent. Of course how much of that debt is in Bank shares?
- Gavin Scott
- Admin
- Posts: 6442
- Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 13.16
- Location: Edinburgh
- Contact:
That's what you think.WillPS wrote:Oh give over. You can't have a referendum every 5 years.Gavin Scott wrote:Everything that's happening at the moment - including smear tactics from the forth estate again, so soon since the referendum are creating an ineffable, unmistakable trajectory.
You might find it hard to understand barcy, but outwith Scotland they have these things called Tories. They vote for people with blue rosettes and policies that you might find abhorrent - and can't understand why anyone might think that, say, independence for Scotland is a good idea.barcode wrote:Bigger question has to be why would anyone vote for David Cameron?
I see what you did therethegeek wrote:You might find it hard to understand barcy, but outwith Scotland they have these things called Tories. They vote for people with blue rosettes and policies that you might find abhorrent - and can't understand why anyone might think that, say, independence for Scotland is a good idea.barcode wrote:Bigger question has to be why would anyone vote for David Cameron?

I can understand why people may have more right wing ideas, heck UKIP got an MEP..... but can you reply to the next part of my Q? How can any right wing person expect the fact he double the national debt?Bigger question has to be why would anyone vote for David Cameron? He has double the national debt
-
- Posts: 2020
- Joined: Sun 13 Feb, 2005 00.04
- Location: Next door to Hell
Oh, so we've not had enough cuts you mean?