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Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Sun 15 Feb, 2015 21.56
by Pete
WillPS wrote:Perhaps they'll even use the 'N' word (nationalisation).
So many people often say that the instant election winner would be to say they'd renationalise the railways. I wonder how much truth there is in that. Certainly I suspect it would be cheaper than renationalising the utilities as they are all franchises handed out by the DfT and you just have to wait for them to lapse and then not put them out again.

Alternatively, they could move to a TfL style system of contacting out but not full franchises. Course that doesn't always work - Tyne and Wear Metro seems to be having major issues since DB Reigo took over although who's fault that ultimately is is obscured somewhat as DB R doesn't really have a face, they are just a contractor for Nexus.

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Sun 15 Feb, 2015 22.19
by WillPS
Pete wrote:
WillPS wrote:Perhaps they'll even use the 'N' word (nationalisation).
So many people often say that the instant election winner would be to say they'd renationalise the railways. I wonder how much truth there is in that. Certainly I suspect it would be cheaper than renationalising the utilities as they are all franchises handed out by the DfT and you just have to wait for them to lapse and then not put them out again.

Alternatively, they could move to a TfL style system of contacting out but not full franchises. Course that doesn't always work - Tyne and Wear Metro seems to be having major issues since DB Reigo took over although who's fault that ultimately is is obscured somewhat as DB R doesn't really have a face, they are just a contractor for Nexus.
It would certainly get my vote (even though my vote matters for nowt, in a safe Labour seat). The current system is utter nonsense.

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 15.19
by barcode
WillPS wrote: It would certainly get my vote (even though my vote matters for nowt, in a safe Labour seat). The current system is utter nonsense.
PR wouldn't really stop Safe seats, unless we had 3 member per seats.

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 16.28
by DTV
barcode wrote:
WillPS wrote: It would certainly get my vote (even though my vote matters for nowt, in a safe Labour seat). The current system is utter nonsense.
PR wouldn't really stop Safe seats, unless we had 3 member per seats.
Yes it would, PR gets rid of Safe Seats. Under PR you don't have single member seats, you either have multi-member constituencies, regions or an entire nation. STV tends to use MMCs so instead of having 7 Labour held Glasgow seats, you'd have one Glasgow seat that elected 7 MPs of which only 3 or 4 would be Labour. You couldn't have PR in Single Member Constituencies because SMCs work in a way that isn't proportional. Alternative Vote isn't a form of PR and is in some cases more disproportionate that First Past the Post, nobody really wanted AV which is why the Tories allowed that on the referendum. STV (PR) or AMS (Hybrid) are the preferred systems in the event of reform, although National Party List (with Largest Remainder allocation rather than D'Hondt) is the truest form of PR but that would abolish constituencies altogether. This is why some are suggesting that you replace the House of Lords with an elected upper house and then one of the houses uses Party List and the other uses FPTP in order to retain that constituency link.

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 19.57
by barcode
Really? In the Scottish Local council elections, Labour clicked on fast how to work the system...

On polling day told 50% of people to put Lab Can A first and Lab Can B sencond, and the other 50% the other way round. Thus labour won the most since both Top canadiate where had roughly the same number of votes.

Hence the reason Labour were able to take higher % of seats compared to % of votes, how do you think Labour were able to take back alot of councils in 2012?

OR have I got this wrong ?

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 21.08
by barcode
Here are a few more interesting post from the net:

* http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/2 ... -summed-up
Full Details here: http://www.lbc.co.uk/iain-dales-2015-el ... sis-103602

http://iaindale.com/posts/2014/12/29/ge ... plete-list


Oh... Look who give Advice On How To Avoid Tax On BBC's Daily Politics:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/02 ... 91256.html

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 21.12
by WillPS
barcode wrote:
WillPS wrote: It would certainly get my vote (even though my vote matters for nowt, in a safe Labour seat). The current system is utter nonsense.
PR wouldn't really stop Safe seats, unless we had 3 member per seats.
The system I was referring to was the franchised rail network. But yeah, FPTP is rubbish but at least it'll keep out the UKIP loonies.

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 21.31
by cwathen
Pete wrote:
WillPS wrote:Perhaps they'll even use the 'N' word (nationalisation).
Certainly I suspect it would be cheaper than renationalising the utilities as they are all franchises handed out by the DfT and you just have to wait for them to lapse and then not put them out again.
The trouble is, the DfT is now moving towards handing out longer and longer franchises and it seems to have become a matter of course to extend franchises rather than re-advertise them, so re-nationalising is unlikely to be a serious prospect for a government on a 5 year term, if they truly believe re-nationalising the railways is the way forward they'd need to bank on at least a 2nd (and ideally a 3rd) term in order to push out all the TOCs - or spend huge amounts of public money buying them out.

Look at FGW - their current franchise started in 2006 and was only supposed to last until 2012. After the West Coast fiasco, the various extensions granted to them (and another being discussed at present) now mean it's very likely that they will last until at least 2021 without a re-tender of their franchise - the extensions will exceed the length of the original franchise, and see out the next parliament. At present, there doesn't even seem to be any guarantee that after 15 years they will finally have to go through competitive tender, it might just keep on being extended forever.

Similarly, Crosscountry were told 3 years before the end of their franchise that another 3 and a half were being added on to it. Assuming that there is no further extension (which based on the DfTs actions with FGW I wouldn't rule out), they will survive until at least the end of 2019 - the dying days of the next parliament and over 12 years since their franchise started.

The franchise which started this trend - West Coast - was extended for 2 years which was understandable due to the need to review the process which failed - but then last year it was extended again for another 2 and a bit, Virgin West Coast will keep running for at least 4 and a half years past their original end date, just how long does it take to fix the franchise process? Why was another extension necessary?

This is a far cry from the past when many franchises came and went in the space of 5 years - enough of a timeframe to make it viable for a government to re-nationalise if they wanted to (or keep privatisation but change the playing field so that the franchises need to deliver what they want).

I think sadly we may end up with the worst bits of privatisation coupled to the worst bits of nationalisation with none of the benefits of either - a railway operated by a very small number of huge businesses which need to make money first and transport passengers second, and the franchise becoming just a formality as it will become increasingly normal for franchises to become longer and longer and see extension after extension added on such that there is no serious prospect of them ever loosing their franchise and no need to bother too much, thus the only thing which is supposed to hold them in check will become utterly meaningless.

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Mon 16 Feb, 2015 22.05
by DTV
barcode wrote:Really? In the Scottish Local council elections, Labour clicked on fast how to work the system...

On polling day told 50% of people to put Lab Can A first and Lab Can B sencond, and the other 50% the other way round. Thus labour won the most since both Top canadiate where had roughly the same number of votes.

Hence the reason Labour were able to take higher % of seats compared to % of votes, how do you think Labour were able to take back alot of councils in 2012?

OR have I got this wrong ?
Scottish Local Elections usually have a result which is nearly proportional, Labour only had 0.8% more seats allocated than votes won. In 2012 the SNP won anyway and the seats that Labour won back were mainly ex-Tory or Lib Dem which suffered because A - it was a mid-term local and they are in government and B - the Lib Dems are now as popular as Thatcher in Scotland.

Also under STV it wouldn't matter if Labour had told all their voters to put Candidate A first and Candidate B second as if every Labour voter did that, Labour would win both of these seats as that is how STV works. Your presumption there is based on the unlikely notion that people are going to perform uniformly and do what a PPC tells them to do. Many people may have put a Labour Candidate first and then an SNP candidate second, just because there are two Labour candidates on a list doesn't necessarily mean that they would pick Labour and then Labour, let me try and explain...

Say a four member constituency in an ex-Mining area in the North of England had the following choice of candidates.
Tony Blair - Labour
Tony Benn - Labour
Dennis Skinner - Labour
Arthur Scargill - Socialist Labour Party
Margaret Thatcher - Conservative Party
Harold MacMillan - Conservative Party
etc.

STV gives the voter the opportunity to select a candidate on personal policy rather than party policy, hence a traditional Labour voter may place Benn, Skinner, Scargill and MacMillan ahead of Blair as they are more likely to vote according to the voters own politics. Thus under STV the voter doesn't simply rank Labour candidates in order of preference but ranks the candidates on who most closely represents them. Also it allows voters to pick representatives from different parties if they like one parties policy on one thing and one policies party on another - if you liked the NHA policy on the NHS you could rank them first and then if you like the Greens policy on education you could rank them second as MMCs do not give you majority and so thus force parties to work together.

Anyway, theoretically STV and all other forms of PR get rid of safe seats as it would require you to get a ridiculously high share of the vote in order to win all the seats. Obviously you do get areas such as Belfast West which end up giving you 5 Sinn Féin MLAs out of 6 but in multi party marginals it enables you to get a diverse range of parties in one area whereas previously one party would dominate.

Take Greater Manchester - there are 27 seats and under FPTP Labour won 81.5% of them despite only getting 41% of the vote. They got almost exactly twice the number of seats than they proportionately should. That means the 59% of Mancunians who didn't vote Labour only get 18% of the cities MPs. Under STV a 27 seat Manchester Constituency would give Labour around 13 seats and therefore allow the other half of Manchester to get some representation at last - also as many of Manchester's seats are Labour safe seats (and will stay that way because being an young, urban, modern place with several universities UKIP won't affect Labour's vote (The Greens may in Withington though)), STV would get rid of safe seats and thus force Labour to campaign extra hard as smaller, alternative parties are likely to look more attractive under a PR system.

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Sun 22 Feb, 2015 10.45
by DTV
Find out who you should vote for
https://voteforpolicies.org.uk/

Re: 2015 UK Election

Posted: Sun 22 Feb, 2015 11.36
by all new Phil
Image

Well that helped.