Metropol

The SNP want to lower tax for big business ie Coparation taxes etc.

Now I see what you might be thinking but I did say in business. When it comes to many other aspects its more left wing. Saying that It continules to cut the reinbusment rate for the oap bus passes and fuel rebate for bus services.

http://may2015.com/featured/politically ... e-nations/

May be of some interest to some.

I just can't see how Labour can win the most seats. Surely any gains they make in England (and I don't think they'll make that many) will be wiped out by their losses in Scotland?

It gives me such pleasure that Scotland has woken up to what an utter shower of shite the current Labour Party are. SNP and (dare I say it) the Tories at least have a vision, Labour are only interested in mudslinging.

I think what could be interesting about this election is who comes sixth in England. We know the top 5 will be CON, GRN, LAB, LD, UKIP (not in that order) but with the absence of the BNP who will be placed sixth? I expect it'll be Respect, NHA or Eng Dems but it will be interesting to see. The BNP did cling on in the Euros, but then the Euros always throw up interesting results.

DTV wrote: but then the Euros always throw up irrelevant results.

FIFY.

all new Phil wrote:I just can't see how Labour can win the most seats. Surely any gains they make in England (and I don't think they'll make that many) will be wiped out by their losses in Scotland?

It gives me such pleasure that Scotland has woken up to what an utter shower of shite the current Labour Party are. SNP and (dare I say it) the Tories at least have a vision, Labour are only interested in mudslinging.

Really?

http://justsolutions.eu/Marginals/conMarginals.asp
Refresh your memory on how tiny some of those 2010 Conservative gains were in terms of margin. Take a look at Corby on that list, OK, some local issues there, but look what happened in their 2012 by-election. Surely anybody above Bagshawe on that list is toast.

Also factor in the UKIP effect, which despite whatever they might say certainly hurts the Tories more than it could ever hurt Labour. Add on the raft of disillusioned LibDem voters who I imagine will split between Labour and Green.

Labour will have a tough time forming a majority without Scotland, no doubt, but I think the combination of the inevitable crumble of support for (an) incumbentent party(s) plus the UKIP effect upon the Tories plus the Lib Dem effect means Labour could mop up quite well in England and Wales.

But what are they offering? Absolute frigg all. There is literally nothing to encourage people to choose them over the other parties. They are a mess.

I get what you're saying about the margins, but I genuinely don't believe anywhere near as many people will vote ukip as the polls suggest. People know it'll hand Miliband the keys to Number 10 if they do, and whilst they may not like Cameron, he's certainly the least worst option - especially with an EU referendum on the table.

all new Phil wrote:But what are they offering? Absolute frigg all. There is literally nothing to encourage people to choose them over the other parties. They are a mess.

I get what you're saying about the margins, but I genuinely don't believe anywhere near as many people will vote ukip as the polls suggest. People know it'll hand Miliband the keys to Number 10 if they do, and whilst they may not like Cameron, he's certainly the least worst option - especially with an EU referendum on the table.

No; voting ukip is not going to give Labour the keys to No10. UKIP doesn't need a large margin of the popular vote either, it just needs people to think it does as its just needs to targart select number of high profile seats, which is already doing ( around 10 -15) Anyways UKip will practilly vote the same way as the Tories on all issue.

The seats where UKip are going to have a chance are all tories, and since the SNP are going to end up with most of the scottish seats, Thats Labour another 40 odd seats behide. So the tories have about 90 seats over labour.

So Ukip could win between 5-10 seats. Add in the seats won from the lib dems should round things off. Labour could win another 15 lib dem seats. so lets say 70 seats behide the tories. So that takes us to around 35 -40 seats lost needed.

If you've look around, hopeful you'll notice approx 30 odd seats, which only need less than 1.8% swing for labour to win them back, and it seems Labour are on course to do that, since many of the people are rather peed off with Cameron. It does not help cameron really since he is a prick and awful awful PM, He done nothing worth while in the real world BAR Carlton TV. The warning lables are here. Make a shite load of cash doing nothing... John Major is better than him in either way.

Its not UKIP or SNP etc that will cost that prick DC his job, but more likely 20'000 people IF were really lucky in 30 seats.

Scottish person in not liking Tory shocker.

all new Phil wrote:But what are they offering? Absolute frigg all. There is literally nothing to encourage people to choose them over the other parties. They are a mess.

I get what you're saying about the margins, but I genuinely don't believe anywhere near as many people will vote ukip as the polls suggest. People know it'll hand Miliband the keys to Number 10 if they do, and whilst they may not like Cameron, he's certainly the least worst option - especially with an EU referendum on the table.

In a way, it doesn't really matter what Labour offer. Well, of course it does - but go with it for a second...

It is exceptionally rare for any seat anywhere to gain in terms of popular vote if the MP stands for a governing party. In 2010, I think Gordon Brown himself was the only Labour MP to manage it (something even Tony Blair hadn't managed in 2001 nor 2005). Even John Major's "impressive" popular vote drop of only 0.3% in 1992 was enough to loose him 40 seats; the 2001 election, which history seems to be recording as a "rerun" of 1997 actually involved a fall in Labour's popular vote of 2.5% - the fact they lost only 5 seats being a testament to how convincingly they won in 1997.

So we must surely accept that the Conservative's popular vote will fall and that'll instantly endanger the aforementioned seats. And, however much of an effect UKIP will have (and I happen to agree with you, it has definitely been overstated), it's hard to see them getting less votes this time around, so we have to consider the effect these will have. So far, it seems they have more success converting Tory voters than Labour voters. Then you have the 'returning' Labour voters, who perhaps didn't vote in 2010 but might have stronger feelings now due to stuff like the bedroom tax. Then you have the people (like me) who voted Lib Dem in 2010 who have no intention of doing the same again...

This is all before you actually consider any policy of Labour's at all. And there is sure to be something they're working on that'll sweeten things. Timing is everything. The Gas price freeze was a blinder when they played it; now it's almost meaningless. Perhaps they'll even use the 'N' word (nationalisation).

This man continues to state the following: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... l-election

WillPS wrote: It is exceptionally rare for any seat anywhere to gain in terms of popular vote if the MP stands for a governing party. In 2010, I think Gordon Brown himself was the only Labour MP to manage it (something even Tony Blair hadn't managed in 2001 nor 2005).

I think you may need to have a closer look. this is just a quick look at Scottish labour MPs.

Douglas Alexander +7%
Jim Sheridan +8.3%
Gregg McClymont + 5.4%
Lindsay Roy +10%
Jim McGovern +3.3%
Cathy Jamieson +5.3%
Tom Greatrex +5.2%

Jim Murphy +6.9% A seat the tories thought thier could win. Nearly all the Scottish Labour MPs had an increase share of the vote, in 2010. It was more the rule than the expection. Across Scotland it has a 2.5% increase.