So are Labour on their way out?

[Nick Harvey]

I note that her great buddy, neighbour and sharer of photo-opportunities, Ben Shitarse, has gone extremely quiet of late.

Perhaps he didn't like the way ITV covered Labour's share of the vote?

[Alexia]

I note that her great buddy, neighbour and sharer of photo-opportunities, Ben Shitarse, has gone extremely quiet of late.

Perhaps he didn't like the way ITV covered Labour's share of the vote?

Labour were a third-place party in Shatliff's part of the world long before the nationwide party got in on the act.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bury_Counc ... yrood_ward

[Mr Q]

Aborted coups like that which was attempted by Blears last week remind me of one of the parting lines in the last episode of The Thick Of It: "Next time that you want to stab Caesar, make sure you're not holding a fucking plastic spoon."

[Andrew Fairlie]

UKPollingReport are saying there is a 5 point drop in support for Conservative and 3 point gain for Labour. Seems relatively strange considering the bad time Labour has had of late. I'm a Labour supporter I should say as a disclaimer.

(First time post on the forum, but I read regularly.)

[marksi]

UKPollingReport are saying there is a 5 point drop in support for Conservative and 3 point gain for Labour. Seems relatively strange considering the bad time Labour has had of late. I'm a Labour supporter I should say as a disclaimer.

(First time post on the forum, but I read regularly.)

Your figures are in comparison to what? The EU election results or the polls that preceded them which suggested Labour wouldn't do *quite* as badly as they did?

[Alexia]

I think that people are sussing out David Cameron's constant and almost pathetic pleading for a General Election. Firstly, any incumbent government is perfectly entitled to see out its 5-year term, no matter how unpopular it may appear in 2-bit newspaper polls or an uninspiring European election with a unrepresentatively low turnout. Secondly, green shoots ARE finally appearing, so we do appear to be through the worst of it, and let's see how Brownie takes us through these cruicial twelve months. Who knows - weirder things have happened. I still think, with heavy heart, that Cameron will win the next election outright, but I don't think he'll have a workable majority, especially if support has eroded from ALL three "main" parties to the fringes. But we'll see.

[Andrew Fairlie]

UKPollingReport are saying there is a 5 point drop in support for Conservative and 3 point gain for Labour. Seems relatively strange considering the bad time Labour has had of late. I'm a Labour supporter I should say as a disclaimer.

(First time post on the forum, but I read regularly.)

Your figures are in comparison to what? The EU election results or the polls that preceded them which suggested Labour wouldn't do *quite* as badly as they did?

I believe they're in comparison to the latter. These polls are rarely accurate, that's true but it's worth nothing that both Populus and YouGov have seen Labour rise to a 24% level in support so it might be a fairly accurate figure.

[Mr Q]

I think that people are sussing out David Cameron's constant and almost pathetic pleading for a General Election. Firstly, any incumbent government is perfectly entitled to see out its 5-year term, no matter how unpopular it may appear in 2-bit newspaper polls or an uninspiring European election with a unrepresentatively low turnout. Secondly, green shoots ARE finally appearing, so we do appear to be through the worst of it, and let's see how Brownie takes us through these cruicial twelve months. Who knows - weirder things have happened. I still think, with heavy heart, that Cameron will win the next election outright, but I don't think he'll have a workable majority, especially if support has eroded from ALL three "main" parties to the fringes. But we'll see.

Yes, governments are entitled to serve out their full terms. But let's not forget it was Gordon Brown who initially opened up the early election can of worms shortly after he took over from Tony Blair. It was when that plan was aborted that his electoral fortunes took a nose dive. Apart from a very short-lived recovery in the polls around the time of last year's party conference, Brown - and Labour - have struggled ever since.

The sad upshot of this is that until the next general election, Britain will have a dysfunctional government. Labour seems more interested in navel-gazing and political backstabbing than it does the national interest, as the party's MPs prepare for near-certain defeat. While David Cameron is obviously calling for an election now because he expects to win, Brown is clearly avoiding one because he knows he will lose. And that's the problem. In a democracy, how can you continue to govern for the people when you've clearly lost their (not to mention your own party's) confidence?

In the aftermath of the expenses scandal, I do agree that now probably isn't the right time (an election won't do anything to fix the problems in Westminster) but I find to argue that an early election in the present circumstances would not be a good thing. My understanding is that opinion polls are showing a clear preference among voters for Brown to call an election soon. That seems fair enough to me - having a government limping its way to the ballot box is not what Britain needs.

As for 'green shoots', let's wait and see on that. I know generally - and this may or may not be the case in Britain - production is picking up in some sectors. But this is likely only because inventories have been drawn down. Sustained growth is not yet evident. I expect that by the end of this year, or the start of next, the global economy will be on the mend. But individual countries will exit this recession in different ways - just as they entered in different ways. What is clear is that Britain has been far harder hit than many other economies, and whenever the election is called, I think voters will - rightly - apportion some of the blame to Gordon Brown.

[marksi]

UKPollingReport are saying there is a 5 point drop in support for Conservative and 3 point gain for Labour. Seems relatively strange considering the bad time Labour has had of late. I'm a Labour supporter I should say as a disclaimer.

(First time post on the forum, but I read regularly.)

Your figures are in comparison to what? The EU election results or the polls that preceded them which suggested Labour wouldn't do *quite* as badly as they did?

I believe they're in comparison to the latter. These polls are rarely accurate, that's true but it's worth nothing that both Populus and YouGov have seen Labour rise to a 24% level in support so it might be a fairly accurate figure.

Given these polls generally have a +/-3% margin of error, it is possible that nothing at all has changed.

[Sput]

I bet it's a way bigger margin in reality

</science pedant>

[barcode]

The tories get the most votes in wales and then there say this!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8104142.stm