Metropol

Nick Harvey wrote:I'm sure the Scots would love that outcome.

About half of the Scots would love that outcome. The other half-ish will vote for other parties, but their votes won't matter.

I don't think the Conservatives will get back in following this election, simply because it seems nigh-on impossible that they'll get a majority, and I don't reckon a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition would be enough for an overall majority this time around, considering the polls suggest that the Lib Dems are going to take quite a hit. I reckon UKIP could end up with an additional MP, whether that be Farage or whoever is representing UKIP in that seat in/just outside SE London, and with a bit of luck the 'political earthquake' that UKIP are said to have triggered will end for them here, as I don't reckon they'll be a part of the next government.

So, I'm hedging my bets on Labour eventually being the party to form the next government, most likely with the SNP and other minority parties in tow, even if not on an official basis. I don't reckon they'll be the biggest party, perhaps losing out to the Conservatives by a few seats, but I reckon Labour have got much better coalition prospects than the Conservatives do, and so they'll be the ones making a government.

As an aside, the popularity of a formal Labour/SNP coalition is something that I find quite intriguing, as those who I've spoken to that are engaged in Politics seem to quite like Sturgeon, but those who aren't seem to hate the idea of the SNP being part of the national government. At least the SNP tried to be relevant in the election debates, unlike Leanne Wood who introduced herself at the ITV Debate with something like 'I speak to Wales'.

Critique wrote: I reckon UKIP could end up with an additional MP, whether that be Farage or whoever is representing UKIP in that seat in/just outside SE London,

Mark Reckless, one of two Tory defectors of Rochester and Strood in the Medway Towns. Medway and Thanet are two areas of Kent which have seen social deprivation and a working class population where UKIP sympathies are potentially beneficial for the party.

Martin Phillp wrote:

Critique wrote: I reckon UKIP could end up with an additional MP, whether that be Farage or whoever is representing UKIP in that seat in/just outside SE London,

Mark Reckless, one of two Tory defectors of Rochester and Strood in the Medway Towns. Medway and Thanet are two areas of Kent which have seen social deprivation and a working class population where UKIP sympathies are potentially beneficial for the party.

Yet which are 93% White British and thus in no way under threat from immigration.

My gut feeling is still that we'll still keep the status quo and up with another Tory-Lib Dem coalition. Polls are now giving the Torys a lead over Labour (albeit not by much). I think this will increase over the next week as people consider whether Cameron has truly done such a bad job over the past 5 years but not by enough to get them a majority. Lib dems will lose seats but still come up with enough to form another coalition which Clegg will willingly enter into to hold onto his job for another 5 years under promises of getting a better deal and a bigger voice for the Lib Dems in the next parliament which he then won't deliver.

I still struggle to believe that the SNP will get quite the landslide victory in Scotland that is predicted - I still don't see how a party with a new untried leader and which fundamentally believes in something the Scottish people fundamentally voted against less than a year ago will make the gains predicted - and that's before you look at the disconnection between FPTP and the popular vote.

Well tonight Miliband properly ruled out any form of coalition or deal with the SNP. I still appreciate that he can't agree to a deal because otherwise he's betraying Scottish Labour, but it will now be an enormous U-turn if he did do a deal with them.

Critique wrote:Well tonight Miliband properly ruled out any form of coalition or deal with the SNP. I still appreciate that he can't agree to a deal because otherwise he's betraying Scottish Labour, but it will now be an enormous U-turn if he did do a deal with them.

As did Cameron with regards to LDs. No way LDs will agree to an EU referendum in the next parliament.

Alexia wrote:

Critique wrote:Well tonight Miliband properly ruled out any form of coalition or deal with the SNP. I still appreciate that he can't agree to a deal because otherwise he's betraying Scottish Labour, but it will now be an enormous U-turn if he did do a deal with them.

As did Cameron with regards to LDs. No way LDs will agree to an EU referendum in the next parliament.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/ ... .122140547

Critique wrote:Well tonight Miliband properly ruled out any form of coalition or deal with the SNP. I still appreciate that he can't agree to a deal because otherwise he's betraying Scottish Labour, but it will now be an enormous U-turn if he did do a deal with them.

But he didn't rule out going in with a minority government and daring the SNP to become the party who forced out a Labour government...

Yes, but if the Conservatives come in as largest party there's not a massive amount he can do.

robschneider wrote:Yes, but if the Conservatives come in as largest party there's not a massive amount he can do.

If Con + LibDem + UKIP can get 322 or more seats between them, yes.

The issue is that the Tories will loose all of those tiny marginals to Labour in England, few would doubt that Labour will be able to increase on their previous result of 258 seats, despite losing some/all of the 40-odd seats they hold in Scotland. Those seats have gone to the SNP, a party who have pledged to do all in their power to keep the Tories out (as have Plaid, as have the greens).

A Tory Queens Speech does not stand a chance of being voted through with the help of any of those parties.