That not the question. What worse is no one has been able to explain how a party who claimed to wipe of the defeat within 5 years failed, I can't believe we double the debt because of interest alone.all new Phil wrote:Oh, so we've not had enough cuts you mean?
2015 UK Election
It's simple. There are four stages of a political policy:
1) The Manifesto Promise. We WILL do this NOW.
2) The 5-Year Goal. We WILL do this by the end of the next parliament.
3) The Long-Term Aspiration. We AIM to do this within the fullness of time.
4) The 20/20 Hindsight Revaluation. We COULDN'T do this so please give us another chance to do it again.
Scameron is not alone in promising things he couldn't deliver. One wonders why he isn't blaming external factors like global economic conditions....er.... oh wait... yes that's what the last Labour government claimed....they couldn't possibly have been right, could they?
Oh, and as for the referendum question, the unionists won't like it but there are no time limitations on referenda. Ontario in Canada held three referenda in five years on the question of prohibition, for example. Given that the vote was so close, and that since then polls are suggesting a huge leap in support for the pro-indy party both in Westminster and Holyrood, the political will could be there.
Of course if SNP-Labour get in, and SNP offer to trade holding "IndyRef II : The Legend of Curley's Gold" in return for concessions on Trident and The Vow, then who knows what could happen. If Millipede sticks to his misguided reactionary Hackerite guns, then we'll have another election in October which could be even MORE damaging to the Big Two, especially with the emergence of a strong anti-Establishment sector of parties (not just Greens and UKIP, but a whole host of local parties)
1) The Manifesto Promise. We WILL do this NOW.
2) The 5-Year Goal. We WILL do this by the end of the next parliament.
3) The Long-Term Aspiration. We AIM to do this within the fullness of time.
4) The 20/20 Hindsight Revaluation. We COULDN'T do this so please give us another chance to do it again.
Scameron is not alone in promising things he couldn't deliver. One wonders why he isn't blaming external factors like global economic conditions....er.... oh wait... yes that's what the last Labour government claimed....they couldn't possibly have been right, could they?
Oh, and as for the referendum question, the unionists won't like it but there are no time limitations on referenda. Ontario in Canada held three referenda in five years on the question of prohibition, for example. Given that the vote was so close, and that since then polls are suggesting a huge leap in support for the pro-indy party both in Westminster and Holyrood, the political will could be there.
Of course if SNP-Labour get in, and SNP offer to trade holding "IndyRef II : The Legend of Curley's Gold" in return for concessions on Trident and The Vow, then who knows what could happen. If Millipede sticks to his misguided reactionary Hackerite guns, then we'll have another election in October which could be even MORE damaging to the Big Two, especially with the emergence of a strong anti-Establishment sector of parties (not just Greens and UKIP, but a whole host of local parties)
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bilky asko
- Posts: 1403
- Joined: Sat 08 Nov, 2008 19.48
I don't think referenda on alcohol over 90 years ago in a particular region of Canada are particularly relevant.
The law in Canada at the time allowed the possibility of repealing prohibition through a majority vote. As far as I'm aware, there's no analogous law concerning Scottish Independence.
The law in Canada at the time allowed the possibility of repealing prohibition through a majority vote. As far as I'm aware, there's no analogous law concerning Scottish Independence.
Can no one answer this? Why would you rather vote for the Tory party when there double the debt, compared to the likes of UKIP or other right parties.
Moving on, the number of sites given trying to predict the outcome is growing, it seems some better than others.
* http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
* http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... edictions/
Plus the older ones:
* http://electionsetc.com/
* http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
* http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/
* http://www.election2015.co.uk/
* http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... l-election
What other peoples views on the outcome or are there any big factors which will come into play?
Moving on, the number of sites given trying to predict the outcome is growing, it seems some better than others.
* http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/
* http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives ... edictions/
Plus the older ones:
* http://electionsetc.com/
* http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
* http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.co.uk/
* http://www.election2015.co.uk/
* http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... l-election
What other peoples views on the outcome or are there any big factors which will come into play?
Personally, I've collated as many forecasts and predictions I can find, which is 47 - some of them are updated some aren't. The averages across all the forecasts are
CON 275 (233-305)
LAB 284 (258-313)
SNP 40 (9-56)
LD 25 (10-45)
UKIP 3 (0-7)
GRN 1 (0-3)
PC 3 (0-4)
I would personally say that 270-290 is around about right for the major parties and the other figures are round about right give or take a few. In NI I would say that there are two seats that could change seats, Belfast East will be a DUP gain and Fermanagh & South Tyrone could be a UUP gain. Galloway maybe able to keep Bradford West but then he is Galloway.
CON 275 (233-305)
LAB 284 (258-313)
SNP 40 (9-56)
LD 25 (10-45)
UKIP 3 (0-7)
GRN 1 (0-3)
PC 3 (0-4)
I would personally say that 270-290 is around about right for the major parties and the other figures are round about right give or take a few. In NI I would say that there are two seats that could change seats, Belfast East will be a DUP gain and Fermanagh & South Tyrone could be a UUP gain. Galloway maybe able to keep Bradford West but then he is Galloway.
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all new Phil
- Posts: 1967
- Joined: Sun 13 Feb, 2005 00.04
- Location: Next door to Hell
Because there tends to be more than one criteria upon which people base their choice of who to vote for? Why are you prattling on about this?barcode wrote:Can no one answer this? Why would you rather vote for the Tory party when there double the debt, compared to the likes of UKIP or other right parties.
All the polling websites are as useless as each other. May2015.com is particularly bad.
UKPollingReport (run by Anthony Wells) has been around for AAAAAGES so is not any older than election2015.co.uk for example.
As it is, anyone who is predicting the election this far out is a fool, a nutter or just plain stupid.
So my prediction is: a white, middle-class, English male will win. So nothing will change.
UKPollingReport (run by Anthony Wells) has been around for AAAAAGES so is not any older than election2015.co.uk for example.
As it is, anyone who is predicting the election this far out is a fool, a nutter or just plain stupid.
So my prediction is: a white, middle-class, English male will win. So nothing will change.
Are you trying to say you are not interested in how a government which promised to cut spending etc has managed to double overall debt? Have you not wondered where the money has actually gone? It clearly not going in just interest payments. The current government has spent a hell of alot of money on stuff, where has it gone? Its dam check to say labour left nothing in the cupboards. The Tories have had to taken out a 2nd mortgage. DEBT IS BAD THING. Im surprised were not gone to the IMF and do a 50 year repayment plan like we did with the USA in 1948?all new Phil wrote:Because there tends to be more than one criteria upon which people base their choice of who to vote for? Why are you prattling on about this?barcode wrote:Can no one answer this? Why would you rather vote for the Tory party when there double the debt, compared to the likes of UKIP or other right parties.
Does anyone know why the manifesto launches are kept so secret beforehand? I know next week is manifesto week, but the only way I've confirmed it is looking at tweets from journalists or politicians, mostly as @ replies or conversations.
Labour's is on Monday in Manchester apparently, and Lib Dems on Tuesday. Presumably the Conservatives is Wednesday.
Labour's is on Monday in Manchester apparently, and Lib Dems on Tuesday. Presumably the Conservatives is Wednesday.
To keep them as "pure" as possible? Manifestos should be about what a party will do, not what a party will do different to another party, if that makes sense.Philip wrote:Does anyone know why the manifesto launches are kept so secret beforehand?
Firstly, as already mentioned, people take into account more than one factor when deciding who to vote for. I assumed this was obvious, but considering you're getting so hung up over debt maybe not.barcode wrote:Are you trying to say you are not interested in how a government which promised to cut spending etc has managed to double overall debt? Have you not wondered where the money has actually gone? It clearly not going in just interest payments. The current government has spent a hell of alot of money on stuff, where has it gone? Its dam check to say labour left nothing in the cupboards. The Tories have had to taken out a 2nd mortgage. DEBT IS BAD THING. Im surprised were not gone to the IMF and do a 50 year repayment plan like we did with the USA in 1948?all new Phil wrote:Because there tends to be more than one criteria upon which people base their choice of who to vote for? Why are you prattling on about this?barcode wrote:Can no one answer this? Why would you rather vote for the Tory party when there double the debt, compared to the likes of UKIP or other right parties.
Secondly, it sounds like you think people vote selflessly, when the reality is the opposite, because people are selfish. Some Conservative voters will be quite happy to overlook the fact that Cameron has not obliterated the deficit (something which always seemed pretty unfeasible IMO), if he's talking about policies that will benefit them, or even talking about things that won't be policy, like increases in VAT, top rate of tax and so on. Now, you say you can't understand why people would vote for the Conservatives because of this, but it's not like they're the only ones with supporters overlooking broken promises and the like! I mean, look at Nick Clegg - he went back on a key manifesto promise yet people (albeit not students) are quite happy to still support the Lib Dems, even if there are fewer of these people than before!
As an aside, whilst debt isn't good, it's serviceable, and I agree with what Leanne Wood said in the debate last week, about how we shouldn't be putting arbitrary targets on ending the deficit. We had debt before the economic crash, but people weren't making a big fuss over it and as a country we were doing quite well for ourselves, showing that debt is not the be all and end all of everything, and therefore making it pointless to judge David Cameron on one thing.
Also, are you advocating choosing UKIP over the Conservatives because they've not increased the UK's national debt?
Am I hallucinating or were party manifestos launched much earlier at the last election? I seem to remember Labour's manifesto being launched at some party conference, with much more time to digest the policies within the manifestos. I could be wrong, but the manifestos ahead of this election seem to be coming out much later, leaving less time to digest them and look at how they impact the way you're thinking of voting.Alexia wrote:To keep them as "pure" as possible? Manifestos should be about what a party will do, not what a party will do different to another party, if that makes sense.Philip wrote:Does anyone know why the manifesto launches are kept so secret beforehand?