http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3350563
ICM poll follows trend in a shift towards yes.
Scottish independence
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Gavin Scott
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Do we have information about how the polls were taken?
With general elections turnout is better known, but that's left the case with one offs like referendums. As has been commented turnout will have a huge impact. It's not really clear to me how passionate the people of Scotland on each side are about the issue - being willing to answer a few questions being stopped in the street or called on the phone by a researcher is totally different from going out of ones way to a polling station.
Based on gut instinct, I'd guess the "Yes" opinions feel more passionate than the "no" opinions (since no can be interpreted both as "absolutely not" and as "don't care").
So based on that, I think there's a pretty hefty chance of Scottish independence even if the polls show a moderate balance in favour of "no".
And of course, the bellicose rhetoric coming from Westminster isn't going to do much to endear Scotland's floating voters to being part of the uk... The message (even if it is a bluff) is pretty overtly "if you don't want to be part of is then you can piss off and we'll go out of your way to make your lives difficult" - why the hell would Scotland want to be part of a country that seems like it's holding it hostage!?!?
I say all this as someone who believes Scotland would be better as part of the uk, but (moreover, and more significantly for me) that the uk would be better having Scotland in it. Not MUCH better though, and the more I read about it the more I think much less will change than many imagine to be the case (unless westminster's bluffs aren't bluffs after all - and I wouldn't put it past the current uk government to be prepared to cut off it's nose to spite it's face...)
With general elections turnout is better known, but that's left the case with one offs like referendums. As has been commented turnout will have a huge impact. It's not really clear to me how passionate the people of Scotland on each side are about the issue - being willing to answer a few questions being stopped in the street or called on the phone by a researcher is totally different from going out of ones way to a polling station.
Based on gut instinct, I'd guess the "Yes" opinions feel more passionate than the "no" opinions (since no can be interpreted both as "absolutely not" and as "don't care").
So based on that, I think there's a pretty hefty chance of Scottish independence even if the polls show a moderate balance in favour of "no".
And of course, the bellicose rhetoric coming from Westminster isn't going to do much to endear Scotland's floating voters to being part of the uk... The message (even if it is a bluff) is pretty overtly "if you don't want to be part of is then you can piss off and we'll go out of your way to make your lives difficult" - why the hell would Scotland want to be part of a country that seems like it's holding it hostage!?!?
I say all this as someone who believes Scotland would be better as part of the uk, but (moreover, and more significantly for me) that the uk would be better having Scotland in it. Not MUCH better though, and the more I read about it the more I think much less will change than many imagine to be the case (unless westminster's bluffs aren't bluffs after all - and I wouldn't put it past the current uk government to be prepared to cut off it's nose to spite it's face...)
Thought as much. Eejits.thegeek wrote:http://www.shutterstock.com/pic.mhtml?s ... d=13898587Alexia wrote:Leaving aside the utter lunacy of the far-right who decry "political correctness" and EU interference, those happy smiling white faces on their leaflet look suspiciously American to me. Just a hunch.
So in other words, the Labour pro-indy lot?barcode wrote:New plan from the YES camp. Have lots of leaflets saying, I vote labour but I will vote yes.
http://www.labourforindy.com/
Yes,
but don't forgot saying goodbye to the tories: http://www.yesscotland.net/sites/defaul ... ries_1.pdf
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... k-campaign
but don't forgot saying goodbye to the tories: http://www.yesscotland.net/sites/defaul ... ries_1.pdf
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... k-campaign
Bruce (the) Roberts has an exclusive in today's Guardian - independent Scotland will drive on the right.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... oad-scheme
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... oad-scheme
Yes, I'd only just read about Nick Harvey's new job at CERN
http://home.web.cern.ch/about/updates/2 ... comic-sans
http://home.web.cern.ch/about/updates/2 ... comic-sans
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robschneider
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Is it just me, or is this why I am a little surprised at the Tories backing the continuation of the Union? It's fashionable to hate the Conservatives right now, but we all know that there are "no Conservatives in Scotland". Surely the Conservatives have everything to gain by Scotland not being an issue, so to speak?barcode wrote:Yes,
but don't forgot saying goodbye to the tories: http://www.yesscotland.net/sites/defaul ... ries_1.pdf
Because politics has never made any sense. The Tories' full name is the Conservative and Unionist Party. Clue there for a start. They believe in Unionism as an ideology rather than a practicality.robschneider wrote:Is it just me, or is this why I am a little surprised at the Tories backing the continuation of the Union? It's fashionable to hate the Conservatives right now, but we all know that there are "no Conservatives in Scotland". Surely the Conservatives have everything to gain by Scotland not being an issue, so to speak?
As for "no Conservatives in Scotland", they have 1 MP, 115 local councillors, 15 Scottish Parliament seats and 1 MEP. Still a presence they will see worth fighting for.