Metropoll Watch

iSon · Tue 27 Apr, 2010 23.47

Another day, more polls...
______________________________________________________________________________________________

YouGov for The Sun

Conservative - 33% (nc)
Labour - 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat - 28% (-1)
Others - 10% (nc)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 247 seats (+49)
Labour - 282 seats (-74)
Liberal Democrat - 90 seats (+28)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 44 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Populus for the Times

Conservative - 36% (+4)
Labour - 27% (-1)
Liberal Democrat - 28% (-3)
Others - 9% (nc)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 290 seats (+92)
Labour - 245 seats (-111)
Liberal Democrat - 84 seats (+22)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 36 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

ComRes for ITV News / The Independent

Conservative - 33% (+1)
Labour - 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat - 29% (-2)
Others - 9% (nc)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 244 seats (+46)
Labour - 279 seats (-77)
Liberal Democrat - 96 seats (+34)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 47 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

So not a massive difference for the YouGov and ComRes daily polls - most changes pretty much within margin of errors but they do show a slight recovery for both Labour and the Conservatives - Labour more so - from a slight fall in the Lib Dem vote. However, the Populus polls put the Tories in a fairly good position and is one of their best showings in recent times and suggests that it puts them within a shout of an overall majority if they can just gain a couple of points from the other parties.

iSon · Wed 28 Apr, 2010 21.57

Well, "bigot gate" aside, here are some polls. The reason you'll have to put bigot gate aside is that the ComRes poll data is from Monday and Tuesday and the majority of fieldwork for Harris and YouGov has been carried out before the event. So for the reaction to that I guess we'll have to wait until tomorrow.

Anyway the figures are...
______________________________________________________________________________________________

ComRes for ITV News / The Independent

Conservative - 36% (+3)
Labour - 29% (nc)
Liberal Democrat - 26% (-3)
Others - 9% (nc)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 275 seats (+77)
Labour - 265 seats (-91)
Liberal Democrat - 79 seats (+17)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 51 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Harris for The Metro

Conservative - 32% (-2)
Labour - 25% (-1)
Liberal Democrat - 30% (+1)
Others - 13% (+2)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 255 seats (+57)
Labour - 248 seats (-108)
Liberal Democrat - 116 seats (+54)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 71 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

YouGov for The Sun

Conservative - 34% (+1)
Labour - 27% (-2)
Liberal Democrat - 31% (+3)
Others - 8% (-2)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 259 seats (+61)
Labour - 251 seats (-105)
Liberal Democrat - 109 seats (+47)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 67 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

So ComRes shows a gain for the Conservatives, and a significant loss for the Lib Dems which puts them on one of the lowest seat shares of recent times. However, as I said above, the data is slightly "old" now following recent events and also ComRes update their figures on a rolling basis - interviewing new people each day, but then they add that to 50% of the previous days' data.

Harris and YouGov are both positive for the Tories and Lib Dems - YouGov for the Lib Dems especially as it puts them back in the 30s and shows Labour in a weak 3rd place. All polls have the Conservatives as the largest party after a few days of Labour coming out on top - but still well short of a majority. Will they capture voters from the "bigot" incident or will it make people vote Lib Dem instead? Perhaps it just won't effect people at all.

If there's one saving grace, Gordon Brown will be glad there's a debate tomorrow as the majority of coverage will be the lead up to that debate and also - if it's watched by a good portion of people - may help put the whole thing behind him.

iSon · Sat 01 May, 2010 00.27

Been a bit slack on the polls recently... here's last's night's (Thursday) figures...

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Angus Reid for The Economist

Conservative - 33% (+1)
Labour - 23% (nc)
Liberal Democrat - 30% (-3)
Others - 14% (+2)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 281 seats (+83)
Labour - 219 seats (-137)
Liberal Democrat - 119 seats (+57)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 45 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

TNS-BRMB

Conservative - 34% (nc)
Labour - 27% (-2)
Liberal Democrat - 30% (nc)
Others - 9% (+2)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 262 seats (+64)
Labour - 256 seats (-100)
Liberal Democrat - 101 seats (+57)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 64 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

YouGov for The Sun

Conservative - 34% (nc)
Labour - 27% (nc)
Liberal Democrat - 28% (-3)
Others - 11% (+3)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 268 seats (+70)
Labour - 261 seats (-95)
Liberal Democrat - 90 seats (+28)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 58 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

It's interesting that the YouGov polling was carried out after "bigot gate" and didn't really have much of an impact on voting intentions. And if we take a look at post debates pollst that were published on Friday...

______________________________________________________________________________________________

YouGov for The Sun

Conservative - 34% (nc)
Labour - 28% (+1)
Liberal Democrat - 28% (nc)
Others - 10% (-1)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 261 seats (+63)
Labour - 268 seats (-88)
Liberal Democrat - 90 seats (+28)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 58 seats short

So interestingly the YouGov poll shows little movement after the debate which will surely be a disappointment for David Cameron as he needs to see some significant improvement if he wants to keep the hopes of a majority alive.

______________________________________________________________________________________________

Harris for Daily Mail

Conservative - 33% (+1)
Labour - 24% (-1)
Liberal Democrat - 32% (+2)
Others - 11% (-2)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 265 seats (+67)
Labour - 222 seats (-134)
Liberal Democrat - 130 seats (+68)
Others - 33 seats (+3)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 61 seats short

The Harris poll gives Nick Clegg a significant boost in terms of seats along with a small rise for the Conservatives, but doesn't reflect well on Labour. It seems as though the polls won't be shifted over the next few days by events involving the politicans. However, I expect some movement as the "undecided" people begin to make up their minds and will then start to infuence the polls a little more. Remember, at the moment the figures only account for people who are certain to vote.

WillPS · Sat 01 May, 2010 02.25

Thanks for the update. Although I haven't posted, I'm using this thread as a daily comparison and I really appreciate your updates.

I can't really work out whether the present circumstances is likely to mobilise traditional non-voters or not?

Lee M · Sat 01 May, 2010 16.35

A few bits and pieces on analysing the polls...

1) Uniform national swing is useful to provide what the general indications of a result may look like, but in past elections they have tended to overstate Labour on seats and underestimate both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The US website fivethirtyeight.com, which made very accurate predictions on the 2008 US presidential election, has developed an alternative method of prediction, which is much more favourable to the Tories and Lib Dems.

2) Another issue of overstating may be in the national opinion polls. They have in previous elections tended to overstate Labour by a couple of points, and understate the Tories and Lib Dems by a few points. In 2005, the only pollster to get the result spot on was GfK-NOP, who no longer do regular opinion polls (but will be one of the companies doing the exit poll on election day). The head of GfK-NOP has warned we may be in for another 1992 for the polls, where the polls had Labour a few points ahead of Labour, but the final result was a decent Tory lead. However, who knows what the case will be this time because of the massive shift in the figures, particularly those of Labour massively down and the Lib Dems massively up. It could be that the overstating and understating this time around for the Lib Dems and Labour may already be "priced in" to the figures to a certain extent.

3) A recent ICM poll of Lib Dem target seats for The Guardian has shown that the Lib Dems are doing particularly well where they are challenging Labour. However, the Tory vote share in those seats has only dropped slightly, so only a small Con->LD swing.

4) Depending on the extent of tactical voting, it is possible the Tories and Lib Dems may win some seats because of large swings to both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives in the same seat. I also think there will be quite a few seats where the Lib Dems leapfrog the Tories and win seats from third place. Unlikely to be any seats where the Tories are in third and leapfrog Lib Dems to first place.

5) Differential turnout - there are bound to be some disillusioned Labour supporters who just won't vote. This could have an effect on the polls as well, where they register support for Labour which won't materialise on May 6.

Because of all these factors, a Conservative overall majority is still very possible, especially with the strong marginal seats operation the Tories have. In his analysis in the Daily Mail of their recent poll, Anthony King thinks they can get a majority on 37% if Labour and Lib Dem support is low enough. The model on the fivethirtyeight.com website I mentioned above gives the Tories a majority on 36% in some circumstances (hey, if Labour got in in 2005 with 36%, it's only fair the Tories can too).

barcode · Sat 01 May, 2010 17.04

I dont appect most of this, I still do not believe the tory will win outright, also if Greens, BNP and Esther Rantzen start winning seats then it anyone guess what will happen. If labour supporters switch to the lib dems in south west then tories will start loosing seats, and there will found it even harder to win the strong holds of labour seat.

Labour support may not be happy with brown but there want let David take the seat!

Commets left on there :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/ ... l#comments

dont think it either.

Lee M · Sat 01 May, 2010 17.30

barcode wrote:I dont appect most of this, I still do not believe the tory will win outright, also if Greens, BNP and Esther Rantzen start winning seats then it anyone guess what will happen. If labour supporters switch to the lib dems in south west then tories will start loosing seats, and there will found it even harder to win the strong holds of labour seat.

Labour support may not be happy with brown but there want let David take the seat!

Commets left on there :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/05/ ... l#comments

dont think it either.

The comments on that article are referring to the instant polls conducted after the third Prime Ministerial debate, which aren't worth anything compared to a properly weighted voting intention poll.

There are some polls out tonight which show things moving in the right direction from the Conservative point-of-view, including an ICM marginals poll which shows the Tories are on course for at least 311 seats, a gain of 113.

If the Tories manage to get around 300 seats or more, Labour and the Lib Dems would not be able to form a coalition without minor party support.

Sput · Sat 01 May, 2010 17.37

Hang on, can we just pause for a moment and establish what PR stands for? Could be read both ways when you're talking about the Lib Dems!

barcode · Sat 01 May, 2010 17.46

I dont know where SKY news are getting there facts from but the tories can not get a Maj of 4 with that vote:

311: plus the NI parties? still only takes him to 321: 5 short! I do not see the Non Unionist parties helping him out. Again The question was only ask ""in 96 Labour seats" if the labour supports got to the lib dems in the south west, where there a real fight between lib dems and toires, then tories will not reach 300.

Very poor sloppy standers by the news of the world.

iSon · Sat 01 May, 2010 18.01

First of the polls for the Sunday papers are starting to come out and so far it's good news for the Tories...
______________________________________________________________________________________________

ICM for Sunday Telegraph

Conservative - 36% (+3)
Labour - 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat - 27% (-3)
Others - 8% (-1)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 275 seats (+77)
Labour - 265 seats (-91)
Liberal Democrat - 79 seats (+17)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 51 seats short

______________________________________________________________________________________________

But the latest Angus Reid polls makes interesting reading:

Angus Reid for Sunday Express

Conservative - 35% (+2)
Labour - 23% (nc)
Liberal Democrat - 29% (-1)
Others - 13% (-1)

Based on UNS

Conservative - 307 seats (+109)
Labour - 208 seats (-148)
Liberal Democrat - 104 seats (+42)
Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 19 seats short

So this is one of the best showings for the Conservatives in recent times - but this is due to a very low Labour figures rather than it being a particular spectacular Tory rating. With the Lib Dems still riding high, they need the Labour vote to drop to be able to get close to a majority. Based on these figures, and with some tactical voting and local issues - the 19 seats short could become a very slim majority. However, most other recent polls would disagree that the Labour vote is that low - but then different pollsters weight their polls differently and use slightly different methods. So it's one to be taken in the grand scheme of things rather than a sign of things to come.

We're still expecting polls from BPIX, ComRes and the usual YouGov daily tracker polls so it will be interesting to see what they are indicating. Apparently the ComRes poll is going to be "interesting" but how interesting and for who, remains to be seen.

iSon · Sat 01 May, 2010 18.05

barcode wrote:I dont know where SKY news are getting there facts from but the tories can not get a Maj of 4 with that vote:

311: plus the NI parties? still only takes him to 321: 5 short! I do not see the Non Unionist parties helping him out. Again The question was only ask ""in 96 Labour seats" if the labour supports got to the lib dems in the south west, where there a real fight between lib dems and toires, then tories will not reach 300.

Very poor sloppy standers by the news of the world.

Northern Ireland has 18 seats, which if all of the parties were to support the Conservatives would give them 329. However, it's worth noting that Sinn Fein don't take their seats so I don't think they could technically be counted on for "support"?

A big thanks to Lee M for some detailed stuff - I was going to mention fivethirtyeight.com but have been a little busier than recently. I think in either case it really is so close that it would be foolish to make a prediction based on the polls we're seeing - only what the figures say would happen in an ideal world. Over the last few days they have been moving in favour of the Tories though, and that's an interesting trend.