Metropoll Watch

[Chie]

Absolute bollocks. The Liberal Democrats would be very happy to negotiate themselves a position where they can implement said policies and implement PR so that they can sustain their position in the future.

It's not looking like absolute bollocks now.

At Monday's LibDem press conference, Clegg said "I want to be Prime Minister"

This morning he said "People seem to think all we're good for is propping up another party"

In an interview with the Daily Telegraph that appears in tomorrow's edition of the newspaper, he's said that Gordon Brown is "a desperate politician"

I really can't see him working under Gordon Brown in a million years.

[iSon]

Absolute bollocks. The Liberal Democrats would be very happy to negotiate themselves a position where they can implement said policies and implement PR so that they can sustain their position in the future.

It's not looking like absolute bollocks now.

At Monday's LibDem press conference, Clegg said "I want to be Prime Minister"

This morning he said "People seem to think all we're good for is propping up another party"

In an interview with the Daily Telegraph that appears in tomorrow's edition of the newspaper, he's said that Gordon Brown is "a desperate politician"

I really can't see him working under Gordon Brown in a million years.

Based on a couple of soundbites. Of course Nick Clegg WANTS to be Prime Minister, why the hell would he, in the middle of a very good period for them, say they're happy to be in government with another party? You don't, you tell people that you've got a chance to increase your votes and then wait and see.

And if and when we get a hung parliament, I think you'll find that Nick Clegg will be very keen to form a part of a coalition government - no matter the leader.

[barcode]

But will he get his PR reform through? this is why I have the feeling he might still aside with LABOUR no matter what. It possible LD & labour can get past 326 with the tories still having the most seats.

Its seems the polls have changed again and LD support is falling again, but of course it could ALL change again on Thursday!

[wells]

Its seems the polls have changed again and LD support is falling again, but of course it could ALL change again on Thursday!

We need to remember Thursdays debate might not have as much as an impact as it's only going to be live on Sky News. But that might be good for Clegg he might be less challenged in the final debate, had the Sky News debate had a wider live airing.

[all new Phil]

Does anyone else think it absolutely takes the piss that the Lib Dems can get the highest percentage of votes, yet by far the lowest number of seats? Democracy in action or what! Whilst I understand the reason behind this, I don't understand why it's so extreme - can anyone explain further?

[iSon]

Does anyone else think it absolutely takes the piss that the Lib Dems can get the highest percentage of votes, yet by far the lowest number of seats? Democracy in action or what! Whilst I understand the reason behind this, I don't understand why it's so extreme - can anyone explain further?

Purely because of the level of Labour and Conservative (or Nationalist) votes in each constituency. Essentially no matter how well the Lib Dems do in the opinion polls there are always going to be people that vote for one of the main two parties - hence why we end up with safe seats where MPs get a majority of 12,000. To win a seat from the opposition, there has to be a significant number of voters converted - or not turn up - for another party to claim that seat.

Due to the vote share of the Lib Dems in many constituencies being relatively low, they need a massive boost in a lot of places to even get close to taking a seat due to a high number of Labour and Conservative votes being cast which is what makes their task so difficult. It's a "flaw" of our voting system that a Labour MP could win by a handful of votes, with the other party just behind but it's only the party that has the largest share of the vote that gets anything and the rest of the votes are effectively discounted when it comes to electing MPs.

So although the Lib Dems might poll 30% in the opinion polls, there are some places where Labour could poll 40% and some places where they will poll 20%. This is why that the universal national swing system that is generally used to predict isn't as reliable as we would like to think as it isn't able to account for a surge in popularity from another party that easily. Having said that, it's generally recognised as the best system for indicating an election outcome.

[Chie]

Based on a couple of soundbites. Of course Nick Clegg WANTS to be Prime Minister, why the hell would he, in the middle of a very good period for them, say they're happy to be in government with another party? You don't, you tell people that you've got a chance to increase your votes and then wait and see.

And if and when we get a hung parliament, I think you'll find that Nick Clegg will be very keen to form a part of a coalition government - no matter the leader.

That's ok, you're entitled to make your own prediction.

I predict Clegg will form a coalition government with the Conservatives unless Brown wants to resign, which he won't.

Senior civil servants have made it clear that, in the event of a hung parliament, Mr Brown would remain as Prime Minister, even if he did not have the most seats, and would be given time to try to stitch a deal together.

The Lib Dem leader said: “It would be preposterous for Gordon Brown to end up like some squatter in No 10 because of some constitutional nicety.”

Remember Nick Clegg is on record as saying the LibDems will collaborate with the party that has the clearest mandate to govern, and that won't be Labour, not unless they win the most seats.

He said "It's the people in charge. I'm not the king-maker. David Cameron's not the king-maker. Gordon Brown's not the king-maker. It's the people who are the king-makers."

Mr Clegg said: "If the British people don't give any party an absolute majority, an outright majority, then the party with the clearest mandate has the first right to seek to govern."

But he did not suggest whether this mandate applied to the party winning the most Commons seats or the most votes from the public.

I'd argue that he almost certainly meant 'the clearest mandate to govern within the bounds of whichever voting system the electorate casts their vote on the 6th of May'. It would be ridiculous to start inventing you own way of determining which party has the clearest mandate, thereby shunning the official system and flying in the face of the electorate's expectations on polling day. We vote for MPs, not for parties.

In fact, what am I talking about? He said 'outright majority' - of course he's referring to the FPTP system and therefore the most Commons seats. It's a given that no party will get more than 50% of the popular vote.

[James H]

Just thought I'd let you know, it seems a certain former member has clearly been fiddling with aspect ratios in Manchester once more...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... 0_04_2010/

Go to 19.23

[iSon]

Well it's poll o'clock with some more figures to digest. Here goes with the numbers for starters, with YouGov putting the Tories back in the lead, although margin of error and usual fluctuations could account for the change...

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YouGov for The Sun

• Conservative - 33% (+2)
• Labour - 27% (+1)
• Liberal Democrat - 31% (-3)
• Others - 9% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 248 seats (+50)
• Labour - 258 seats (-98)
• Liberal Democrat - 113 seats (+51)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 68 seats short
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Harris for Metro

• Conservative - 31%
• Labour - 26%
• Liberal Democrat - 30%
• Others - 13%

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 239 seats (+41)
• Labour - 265 seats (-91)
• Liberal Democrat - 115 seats (+53)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 61 seats short
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MORI for London Evening Standard

• Conservative - 32%
• Labour - 28%
• Liberal Democrat - 32%
• Others - 8%

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 233 seats (+35)
• Labour - 268 seats (-88)
• Liberal Democrat - 118 seats (+56)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 58 seats short

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And one from a face to face polling firm, which I'm informed has some of it's data taken from people questionned before the first TV debate.

TNS-BRMB

• Conservative - 34%
• Labour - 29%
• Liberal Democrat - 30%
• Others - 7%

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 247 seats (+49)
• Labour - 276 seats (-80)
• Liberal Democrat - 96 seats (+34)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Labour 50 seats short

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Pretty much more of the same, and still shows the Lib Dems with a fairly strong showing. Sky News may get some good figures based on the interest around this debate- seems they've dropped lucky by hosting the second.

[iSon]

An additional poll that's just been released from ComRes. Note: the data is actually from yesterday where a fresh set of people are interviewed and it's then combined with results from the previous day so the data always features the second half of the previous poll. If that makes sense.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

ComRes for ITV News / The Independent

• Conservative - 35% (nc)
• Labour - 25% (-1)
• Liberal Democrat - 27% (+1)
• Others - 13% (nc)

Based on UNS

• Conservative - 299 seats (+101)
• Labour - 236 seats (-120)
• Liberal Democrat - 84 seats (+22)
• Others - 31 seats (+1)

Hung Parliament - Conservatives 27 seats short

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So this gives the Tories their best result in terms of seats for a good while - they are benefitting from the low Labour share. However, other polls seem to dispute the figures - and if indeed the results from ComRes yesterday were a blip then the data is also partly included in this poll so it doesn't point to a Tory comeback or a Lib Dem slide. It's interesting that ComRes is at odds with other pollsters, but then I guess it wouldn't be so fun if they were all *exactly* the same.

[WillPS]

So, the most positive (in terms of closest to a majority) is a Tory shortfall of 30 - Hung Parliament seems like a safe bet!