Coronavirus - Strange times

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Finn
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cdd wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 13.08 How many people are properly wearing an effective mask? <50%, in my observation. I therefore think most people are indifferent.
The examples I've listed above note that even plain cloth masks are effective. Obviously not as effective as medical grade, but still better than no mask.
cdd
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james2001 wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 19.58 If it wasn't for my inability to wear masks, I'd be in the US this weekend
I’m sorry to hear it’s messing about with your life this much. If you’re really not comfortable declaring an exemption, then I’d look for a more breathable one you can tolerate. People don’t care what you wear.
james2001 wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 19.58 pre-departure tests, PCR testing on return and isolation
I’m doing the US next week — total test costs:
Supervised PDT for U.S.: £24
Unsupervised PDT for U.K.: £18
Day 2 PCR: £30 (or £55 for a 5 hour test, meaning almost no isolation).

These expenses will be partially offset by cheaper flights. If you go where lots of tourists are, the government can’t really red list without notice, so that’s not a major risk. You might get stranded on a positive test but that’s what travel insurance is for; the airlines will be flexible anyway, so it’s just accommodation. Do yourself a favour and get out there.
cwathen
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Neil wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 21.32
cwathen wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 10.36 I was strongly against reimposing mandatory masks because, aside from it being demonstrably obvious that they don't do anything, they are a restriction.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2776536

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-08-ox ... rk-act-now

https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118#sec-22

(for example)
I'll read them too. But again, in the meantime, I'll pose the same question to you as I did to Billy. Why, despite the claimed evidence, is there no observable correlation on the ground between mask wearing and the spread of the virus? Why did wearing masks in July 2020 not stop infections increasing, and why did the withdrawal of the mask mandate in July 2021 leading to ever-decreasing amounts of mask wearing over the next 4 months not in any of that extensive period cause a surge in infections given how important this protection apparently was?
bilky asko
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cwathen wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 19.22Why is there no observable correlation on the ground between wearing masks or not vs what the spread of the virus is doing?
The study shows that there is.
cwathen wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 19.221) Why did wearing masks from July 2020 have no effect on preventing a small uptick in cases ballooning into a second wave triggering drastic action when we were told masks would mitigate against that happening?

2) Why did a huge reduction in mask wearing once it became optional in July 2021, with voluntary wearing continuing to decline over the next 4 months not cause a spike in cases as a result of losing this apparent protection as those in favour of retaining a mask mandate said would happen?
You're working from a premise that masks had no effect, which is wrong. The study shows that masks do have an effect; therefore, the reason for the changes you suggest are because there is more than one factor involved in the spread of the virus. That is not surprising information to anyone.
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james2001
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cdd wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 21.45 I’m sorry to hear it’s messing about with your life this much. If you’re really not comfortable declaring an exemption, then I’d look for a more breathable one you can tolerate. People don’t care what you wear.
Sadly, I can't wear one at all, I've tried countless different ones over the last 18 months or so. They all have the same effect, I feel like someone's got their hands over my mouth and I go into severe panic and anxiety. It's not about how breathable the mask is, it's having my mouth covered up that does it.

I've had so much hostility over this, both on and offline, that I'm too scared to try and go anywhere without one, even claiming an exemption (and far too many people have decided anyone claiming an exemption is just trying it on, or there shouldn't be exemptions anyway). Last year I had to leave the gym I'd been a member of for 16 years as they refused to let me through the door not wearing a mask (well, the staff who worked there who knew me, accepted it, but after a few weeks head office told them they couldn't let me in unless I wore one, even claiming my exemption, which felt awful, like I was being singled out- when I tried to go in there and they tried to get me to wear a mask was both upsetting and humilating), and a couple of people I thought were "friends" have actually fallen out with me over it, even after explaining how I feel. I just got all the I'm "selfish", I should "just do it anyway", "it's just a piece of cloth" etc. stuff. All this stuff has made me too scared and anxious to even try claiming an exemption. All the videos and stories that's been out there of airline staff forcing masks on clearly distressed children and disabled people, or kicking them off the plane, not to mention potential hostility from other passengers makes me far too scared to fly anywhere. Not to mention going to another country that has different rules and might not accept my exemption, as far as I'm concerned international travel is closed to me as long as mask mandates are in force.

It might seem irrational, and I've been told as such by some people, but it's a very real issue for me.

The fact all this has happened, in addition to losing two close family members over the last few months, has taken a big toll on my mental health.
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tillyoshea
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cwathen wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 15.25 Significantly, several of them found that face visors which are considered perfectly acceptable face coverings do pretty much diddly squat in terms of stopping cough particles in a lab test.
The guidance wrote: A face visor or shield may be worn in addition to a face covering but not instead of one. This is because face visors or shields do not adequately cover the nose and mouth, and do not filter airborne particles.
cwathen
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gottago wrote:Generally, despite the new opportunity of fearmongering for the press
This is not helped at all though with various government advisors queuing up to give private interviews airing their own opinions on the subject. Whilst in some cases they are badly quoted (but I don't think ever misquoted - the media may hone in on the negative parts of their message rather than the positive, but they still said it), they must be aware of how anything negative is going to be highlighted when reported and therefore how potentially damaging their interventions could be, even if they don't translate into policy. How many Christmas parties got cancelled last week after Jenny Harries stuck her oar in about reducing contacts? Not singling her out, she's just the first example that springs to mind. Putting these people on a pedestal has turned some of them into household names and their words have impact, even if what they are advising isn't policy. As such, they really should be more guarded about they are saying to the media. Arguably if they are official government advisors (particularly if being paid for their time advising the government which I presume they are) they shouldn't be directly talking to the media on a subject they are currently advising on anyway.
tillyoshea wrote: Sun 05 Dec, 2021 11.34
cwathen wrote: Sat 04 Dec, 2021 15.25 Significantly, several of them found that face visors which are considered perfectly acceptable face coverings do pretty much diddly squat in terms of stopping cough particles in a lab test.
The guidance wrote: A face visor or shield may be worn in addition to a face covering but not instead of one. This is because face visors or shields do not adequately cover the nose and mouth, and do not filter airborne particles.
I stand corrected on the guidance. Didn't realise it said that. At least they are getting something right. Hasn't stopped people using them as face coverings though and I know of no one minded to challenge a non-mask wearer who would challenge someone in a visor.
billy asko wrote: You're working from a premise that masks had no effect, which is wrong.
I work from that premise now, but in July 2020 I had a very open mind on mask wearing and I was happy to do it and trust it would provide the protection claimed. But I expected to see results from it. And any slight doubts I may have had about taking that position were gone in July this year when removing them caused no problems.
billy asko wrote:the reason for the changes you suggest are because there is more than one factor involved in the spread of the virus. That is not surprising information to anyone.
It's not not me arguing that masks are a vitally important or effective intervention, it is you that is arguing that! There are some people putting so much emphasis on them that they are treating the unmasked as genocidal maniacs. I heard some entitled nutjob on LBC yesterday who has taken it upon himself to start ordering unmasked people off of tube carriages and apparently next time it happens he will pull the handle and expects to see the offenders removed, such is his belief in mask wearing and his contempt for people who do not.

I'm not saying you personally have said or done anything like that but it's this obsessive narrative about the importance of masks which drives people into these thoughts. But when asked to explain why wearing masks did not make situation 1 better and not wearing them did not make situation 2 worse you have retreated to 'well it's not all about masks you know'. Umm...well yes...exactly. But it rather seems to detract from your argument.
james2001
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cwathen wrote: Mon 06 Dec, 2021 11.23 There are some people putting so much emphasis on them that they are treating the unmasked as genocidal maniacs. I heard some entitled nutjob on LBC yesterday who has taken it upon himself to start ordering unmasked people off of tube carriages and apparently next time it happens he will pull the handle and expects to see the offenders removed, such is his belief in mask wearing and his contempt for people who do not.
Yes, these are the sorts of people who make me too scared to try and go in places where masks are mandated, even claiming my exemption. They might only be in a minority, but you only need to encounter one person like this out of the thousands you come in contact with to have your day ruined. Some people have got too over the top and hysterical about it.

Regardless of the arguments about how effective they are or aren't, far too many seem to take it to extremes, as if masks are a 100% foolproof way to stop it spreading, and just one person not wearing one, even when vaccinated and taking other precautions, is a killer spreading death and disease around. Sadly the extremes on both sides have taken over the argument, both the "masks are useless" and "anyone not wearing masks is a murderer" sides.
cwathen
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james2001 wrote:Sadly the extremes on both sides have taken over the argument, both the "masks are useless" and "anyone not wearing masks is a murderer" sides.
Whilst admitting to belonging to one of those camps, it is inevitable unfortunately that extremism breeds extremism. With Covid there probably was a middle way through where some action, indeed some restrictions, could have been taken without closing down the economy and making it illegal to leave your house. It would not have been as effective at controlling the virus, but less damage would have been done to the economy and society. Instead we are in a position where the healthcare system must be protected at all costs, and the economic and societal damage is at best a secondary consideration. Whilst how long this goes on for is not in itself a metric before considering the viability of further measures. Hence we are still in a position where new variants triggers restrictions and a 4th lockdown is not off the table. The idea of perspective and realising that you just can't do this, for this long, over something that did not threaten the lives of 99.4% of the population seems entirely absent from consideration. The only way to fight the obsession with Covid is to take the opposite side, highlight the damage we are doing very strongly and push back against any attempt to curtail normal life, even small curtailments.

On the subject of masks, on the other side of the coin I'll accept that masks don't actually do any harm (if you are able to wear them of course) and were it just a matter of wearing them to keep others happy then I probably wouldn't feel passionately enough about the subject to not just quietly comply with no fuss. But as I said before, Covid obsessives can't be trusted with masks. As soon as a mask mandate goes through, pressure for more restrictions will follow, and the government will introduce them. Hence the travel restrictions have tightened even further, with pre-departure testing now being required. Last week the travel industry had the rug pulled out from under them, now the floor has gone too. What might have been expected to be a busy December for travel has now been decimated. And as things stand with no financial support. Businesses will be put at risk of collapse, jobs will be lost. And I might add this damage has been done so that the impact of Omicron can be investigated, not on the basis that it actually is a problem! But apparently we will sacrifice the travel industry to prevent the the spread (which various experts are already saying is an approach which won't work). What happens next week? Working from home? Hospitality curfews? It's this sort of 'we rule nothing out' obsession with Covid which is the driving force behind strong views on the other side.
bilky asko
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cwathen wrote: Mon 06 Dec, 2021 11.23
billy asko wrote: You're working from a premise that masks had no effect, which is wrong.
I work from that premise now, but in July 2020 I had a very open mind on mask wearing and I was happy to do it and trust it would provide the protection claimed. But I expected to see results from it. And any slight doubts I may have had about taking that position were gone in July this year when removing them caused no problems.
billy asko wrote:the reason for the changes you suggest are because there is more than one factor involved in the spread of the virus. That is not surprising information to anyone.
It's not not me arguing that masks are a vitally important or effective intervention, it is you that is arguing that! There are some people putting so much emphasis on them that they are treating the unmasked as genocidal maniacs. I heard some entitled nutjob on LBC yesterday who has taken it upon himself to start ordering unmasked people off of tube carriages and apparently next time it happens he will pull the handle and expects to see the offenders removed, such is his belief in mask wearing and his contempt for people who do not.

I'm not saying you personally have said or done anything like that but it's this obsessive narrative about the importance of masks which drives people into these thoughts. But when asked to explain why wearing masks did not make situation 1 better and not wearing them did not make situation 2 worse you have retreated to 'well it's not all about masks you know'. Umm...well yes...exactly. But it rather seems to detract from your argument.
I explained how the premise of your statements was (and is) wrong. The masks do make a difference, but because you have way of comparing what happened to what would have happened if the opposite changes were made then you can't possibly say that masks made no difference.

It is precisely because there is more than one factor at play - which you admit - that means you can't infer that masks made no difference.

As it happens, we have a gold-standard study that allows the comparison to be made. That gives you, and everyone, the evidence required to say that masks are effective and should be used. It also tells us that your assertion that the masks "made no difference" is wrong.
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james2001
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Saying "masks don't work" is an extremely ridiculous position to take. It's as bad as the "if everyone just wore masks all the time, covid would go away" attitude that comes from the other side.

There are some things that have been totally ridiculous, like the bar/restaurant rule where you have to wear a mask walking to your table, going to the bar and going to the toilet, but you don't have to wear it at your table (i.e. 90% of the time you're in there), that sort of thing is basically a placebo at best, much like the parts of the world with outdoor masking mandates.

I know I shouldn't, but after DS politics and GD was closed down and loads of users migrated to AV Forums, I read the threads on there, even though I didn't sign up. The covid threads on there really are at times some of the worst collection of hysteria and doommongery you can get, with the few measured voices that try and chip in usually getting piled on and shot down. If you were to believe them, 100,000+ cases a day and thousands of hospital admissions a day have been just around the corner for months. Reading them discussing Omicron, whenever someone tries to post developments that look positive, they're told "it's too early, not enough data, too few cases to tell" etc., but those same users who insist it's too early to be optimistic pounce on anything negative they can find to tell us Omicron's going to be a disaster. I really should stop reading, along with twitter and other social media which is just as bad- albeit anyone trying to be optimistic on Twitter gets piled on by anti-vaxxers and covid deniers as well as the doommongers. Sadly the mainstream media isn't much better most of the time, it's hard to find balanced and unsensational news on the subject.

I genuinely think there's some people out there who don't want to hear good news on the covid front, I can't think of any other reason why some people seem determined to find anything negative they can dwell on, even when things are leaning towards the optimistic side.
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