Coronavirus - Strange times

[james2001]

I think it's fair to say it's a good time to be running a business near the Scottish and Welsh borders. I imagine pub and nightclub owners in Bristol, Shrewsbury and Carlisle will be rubbing this hands with the cross-border trade the next few weeks.

[Jonwo]

I think once Covid becomes endemic, it'll be treated like flu where they are able to plan for it every winter through surveillance of variants and predictions and having an annual booster campaign for anyone who is vulnerable or elderly.

I imagine testing will be scrapped and only those who have symptoms will have the option to be tested although I reckon in certain settings, LFTs will be kept so that they can employ antivirals as quickly as possible.

[thegeek]

We cancelled a trip to visit family in Scotland, largely because of the rule that all members of a household should self isolate for 10 days if anyone tests positive... and we didn't fancy being stuck with the in-laws for that long.

But I looked into it a bit further and found out that there's not actually any legal basis to self isolation in Scotland (or NI), whereas there is in England and Wales. Have they just chosen not to pass an equivalent law or is it not possible to do so?

[cwathen]

No government would have restrictions every winter, it’s not financially viable

Pretty sure that no government in early 2020 would have said it was viable for 2 years to go by and still have restrictions either, but it's happened anyway as goalposts keep being moved.

I sense we are on the verge of a further new reason to restrict emerging - NHS capacity being threatened by isolating staff therefore it doesn't matter if hospitalisations are down on previous numbers. To be blunt, it's time then to have the conversation about whether it would be better to have staff who tested positive/close contacts but are not symptomatic to keep working to keep capacity up vs letting the staff member isolate and see capacity drop. Not saying that's a good solution, but if backs are against the wall it's a solution which might have to happen.

Waiting for things to be 'safe' and allowing huge numbers of people to be isolating in an attempt to prevent transmission is a luxury we do not have if we want normality back any time soon. If lines do not start to be drawn we could easily be here in another year, or another 2, or another 3 still having this debate. Or if governments actually are quite prepared to continue to restrict indefinitely before they let their healthcare system become overloaded and as such this will go on for years yet, then they need to be honest about that (I would also say they need clear public consent to do that too) and also explain how they propose to deal with the negative impacts of that.

Personally, I still think we're close to the end of limitless restrictions. I believe public patience is starting to be pushed too far.

[james2001]

If we're reaching the point where it's not going to kill or hospitalise significant numbers of people, will there really be any reason to keep the endless testing and isolation requirements anyway? If we tested and made people isolate for every respitory illness regardless of severity the country would never function, so we can't keep it up with covid indefinitely either. I think we're reaching the point where making people isolate is causing more disruption and damage than the virus.

[Jonwo]

I think PCR testing will be wound down by next year but they’ll keep LFTs in certain settings.

[cdd]

If we're reaching the point where it's not going to kill or hospitalise significant numbers of people, will there really be any reason to keep the endless testing and isolation requirements anyway?

To be honest, I’m not sure testing is delivering that much value right now (certainly not enough to justify its monumental cost). PCR testing, especially, takes too long and is very expensive per test (more than a vaccine!). We don’t require contacts to isolate, so we’re only getting half the value anyway. Getting rid of it feels scary and clearly increases risk, but at the same time it’s sickening to think of the opportunity cost - what we could have done with the money. Either in healthcare or otherwise .

I’d prefer to see LFTs available for a nominal (subsidised) fee of e.g. £7 for a box of 7 [which employers could cover if they require the testing].

[bilky asko]

Yes, I'm sure all the data gathered from the widespread PCR testing has no scientific value at all...

[cdd]

Yes, I'm sure all the data gathered from the widespread PCR testing has no scientific value at all...

I didn’t say it had “no” value. Nuance seems to get lost online! I questioned whether it was worth the astronomical cost.

What do you think the advantages are of widespread PCR testing, as opposed to ONS PCR sampling+extrapolation and widespread LFD testing; and what financial value (opportunity cost) do you place on those marginal advantages? It feels like everyone has forgotten the principle of cost-benefit analysis over the last couple of years.

[Jonwo]

Paxlovid has finally been approved in the UK, we probably won't see its impact for a while but if it's as promising as the data has shown then 2022 will be a much better year than the previous two years.

[bilky asko]

Yes, I'm sure all the data gathered from the widespread PCR testing has no scientific value at all...

I didn’t say it had “no” value. Nuance seems to get lost online! I questioned whether it was worth the astronomical cost.

What do you think the advantages are of widespread PCR testing, as opposed to ONS PCR sampling+extrapolation and widespread LFD testing; and what financial value (opportunity cost) do you place on those marginal advantages? It feels like everyone has forgotten the principle of cost-benefit analysis over the last couple of years.

The "astronomical" cost of all the Covid-19 funding, not just the cost of the PCR tests, is a fraction of the overall DHSC budget. These costs aren't forever costs in any case.

Widespread PCR testing shouldn't come to an end because someone like yourself arbitrarily decides that enough money has been spent. Though under your scenario, you want to seriously hamper widespread LFTs by charging for them for some reason.