Coronavirus - Strange times

User avatar
Pete
Posts: 7421
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 13.36
Location: Dundee

Charlie Wells wrote: Mon 10 Jan, 2022 09.05I'd be doubtful of whether being a vegetarian/vegan is a direct factor in avoiding catching it. However I'd assume with those sort of diets you'd be less likely to be eating junk food, so your immune system may well be stronger as a result.
It's not a direct correlation, there's a lot of Vegans who end up eating lots of chips and carbs, especially when restaurants only vegan option is carb heavy and protein light. Conversely you've got a lot of gym rats who eat chicken like its going out of fashion.

I'm starting to suspect its pure luck.
"He has to be larger than bacon"
User avatar
cdd
Posts: 2587
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 14.05
Location: de Voitures

What has struck me about Covid since Delta (and I know this is purely anecdotal!) is how little correlation there seems to be between people I know who have/haven’t had it, and how ‘careful’ they are.

I suspect the risks of everyday interactions are underestimated, and the risks of unusual interactions are overestimated. Going to a concert might be 5x as risky as meeting one friend (plucking a number out of the air). Someone who goes to a concert once a week would be perceived as “taking a big risk”, but it’s a no bigger increment than five long interactions with separate people.
cwathen
Posts: 1243
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

cdd wrote: Mon 10 Jan, 2022 11.30 What has struck me about Covid since Delta (and I know this is purely anecdotal!) is how little correlation there seems to be between people I know who have/haven’t had it, and how ‘careful’ they are.
Since so much is not yet known, it wouldn't entirely surprise me if it is eventually found that some people are more susceptible to catching it than others, and if it does evolve towards something closer to the common cold - a highly transmissable yet for most people mild illness, then it will follow that some people are prone to catching symptomatic Covid in a way that others are not. And as such the 'anyone can get it' line spouted by the government last year might actually turn out not be true (or at least not as inevitable as the propaganda implied), there might actually be people who are and always were highly unlikely to get it, and equally there might be people who unless they practice the strictest of shielding were always going to catch it and become ill from it regardless of how restricted society is.

I think my views on the subject are pretty clear, and as such I do live as normally as possible up to the limits of the restrictions. I don't claim to take daily tests (tbh unless you're likely to come into regular contact with people who are extremely vulnerable, or are vulnerable yourself this seems a bit of an OTT practice to my mind) but I generally end up testing at least monthly, sometimes more frequently depending on what I'm doing. Yes as such it is possible that I've had it asymptomatically and not known given that on occasions 3 or 4 weeks between tests have gone by, but surely by the laws of probability I should at some point have tested positive by now if my 'reckless' attempts to live normally are spreading the virus around. I honestly don't think I've ever had it whilst others have had it multiple times, which does correlate to my not generally suffering from respiratory illnesses.
cdd wrote:Of course the most 'careful' people are those conducting daily LFTs, and as such they are going to be aware of asymptomatic Covid in a way that others are not.
That will be one of the vicious circles we need to break - if we are going to break the obsession with case numbers we also have to break the obsession with finding all the cases and it being a done deal that positive cases will isolate. And that has to start by knocking on the head obsessive levels of testing by people who really don't need to be testing so frequently if it is causing more harm than good. Constant testing with a view to tracing and isolating as many cases as possible to stop the spread is a strategy based on the Wuhan version of Covid which was A) far less infectious than Omicron and B) far more serious if caught. We do need to question how effective or viable this strategy is when we are testing so much that there have been supply problems with tests (thus potentially denying access to testing to people who really do need to know if they're positive or not), we've got the healthcare system and businesses being brought to their knees by people who are off sick having tested positive but are not ill, and yet despite this number of people being taken out of society to 'stop the spread' Omicron continues to spread anyway. It would already appear to be virtually a done deal that self-isolation will be reduced to 5 days, the next step will have to be self-isolation not necessarily being a requirement if people can participate in a society in such a way that they can avoid prolonged or frequent contact with vulnerable people.
cdd wrote:I suspect the risks of everyday interactions are underestimated, and the risks of unusual interactions are overestimated. Going to a concert might be 5x as risky as meeting one friend (plucking a number out of the air). Someone who goes to a concert once a week would be perceived as “taking a big risk”, but it’s a no bigger increment than five long interactions with separate people.
Agreed. Terms like 'super-spreader' events are not helpful and probably are over-egging the risk. How often do people go to concerts or football matches? Would the average 'regular' attendee actually go to more than one a month on average? Would it even be that many? If it's not an every-day occurrence then I can't see how the overall risk of transmission based on how many other interactions that person might have doing more 'safe' activities is actually going to increase very much by doing a one off 'risky' activity.
Jonwo
Posts: 159
Joined: Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02.05

Super spreader events is a term I dislike because it makes people guilty about having fun.
james2001
Posts: 673
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

Got shown this today, made me laugh

Image
cwathen
Posts: 1243
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

james2001 wrote: Tue 11 Jan, 2022 12.11 Got shown this today, made me laugh

Image
TBF though, Nicola Sturgeon is now starting to roll back her restrictions after they rather predictably haven't done much. Although the damage to hospitality continues for now, I'd be amazed if that doesn't go too in a couple of weeks.

Also rather predictably, still no sign that King Drakeford will see sense and do the same.
james2001
Posts: 673
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

I wonder if she'll get rid of the one way systems and queuing outside shops too, they're just as pointless and damaging.
bilky asko
Posts: 1274
Joined: Sat 08 Nov, 2008 19.48

james2001 wrote: Wed 12 Jan, 2022 12.18 I wonder if she'll get rid of the one way systems and queuing outside shops too, they're just as pointless and damaging.
The current Scottish advice for one-way systems is to introduce a one-way system at entrances and exits if possible - the sort of thing that, say, Aldi and Lidl have in place at all times anyway. How damaging!
Image
Charlie Wells
Posts: 284
Joined: Tue 02 Nov, 2004 16.23
Location: Cambridgeshire

bilky asko wrote: Wed 12 Jan, 2022 14.59
james2001 wrote: Wed 12 Jan, 2022 12.18 I wonder if she'll get rid of the one way systems and queuing outside shops too, they're just as pointless and damaging.
The current Scottish advice for one-way systems is to introduce a one-way system at entrances and exits if possible - the sort of thing that, say, Aldi and Lidl have in place at all times anyway. How damaging!
My local Tesco Extra have recently changed their entrance back to pre-Covid. The canopy area in front of the entrance had been split in half by palletised items to create separate entrance and exit routes, with the divide being between two sets of automatic double doors. Whilst the red/green lights remain on one side you can now once again choose which side to enter via, as the pallets creating the divide have been moved.

The same sort of reverting to remove a divide occurred a while back at the nearby Morrisons. I can't remember if the entrance at the other end of the store has also re-opened, as it had been closed whilst the entry/exit divide was in place.

In terms of restrictions in the nations it does seem that Wales is stubbornly holding on to tighter restrictions. I dare say that might change prior to the 6 nations, as I seem to recall reading it may affect matches at Cardiff.
"If ass holes could fly then this place would be an airport."
cwathen
Posts: 1243
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

Charlie Wells wrote: In terms of restrictions in the nations it does seem that Wales is stubbornly holding on to tighter restrictions. I dare say that might change prior to the 6 nations, as I seem to recall reading it may affect matches at Cardiff.
Drakeford's argument certainly becomes more diminished if Wales ends up being the odd one out, but I'm unconvinced that will move him. He's a restriction obsessed lunatic who cannot see any other option but restrictions as being the correct way to proceed and he will need to be dragged kicking and screaming away from this approach - if that's even possible. He has been unapologetic throughout the pandemic at taking the actions he has taken. It is less than a week since he criticised England for being less restricted than Wales. He believes in restrictions. He'd probably prefer to have Scotland and NI in a similar boat but I doubt that's a prerequisite for him. He will allow Wales to go it alone with tough restrictions, of that I'm convinced.

6 nations starts in just over 3 weeks. Whether or not the Wales home games are played in England is a decision that needs to be made within days to sort the logistics out (and so the fans planning to attend can sort their own logistics out too). It is no coincidence that Sturgeon announced backing down from restrictions at this point, that's so Scottish home 6 nations games can be played in Scotland before they get moved to England.

Drakeford can't just announce on 11th February after the tournament has started that Wales v Scotland can go ahead in Cardiff the following day. It doesn't work like that. But he doesn't care.
bilky asko
Posts: 1274
Joined: Sat 08 Nov, 2008 19.48

Charlie Wells wrote: Wed 12 Jan, 2022 15.10
bilky asko wrote: Wed 12 Jan, 2022 14.59
james2001 wrote: Wed 12 Jan, 2022 12.18 I wonder if she'll get rid of the one way systems and queuing outside shops too, they're just as pointless and damaging.
The current Scottish advice for one-way systems is to introduce a one-way system at entrances and exits if possible - the sort of thing that, say, Aldi and Lidl have in place at all times anyway. How damaging!
My local Tesco Extra have recently changed their entrance back to pre-Covid. The canopy area in front of the entrance had been split in half by palletised items to create separate entrance and exit routes, with the divide being between two sets of automatic double doors. Whilst the red/green lights remain on one side you can now once again choose which side to enter via, as the pallets creating the divide have been moved.

The same sort of reverting to remove a divide occurred a while back at the nearby Morrisons. I can't remember if the entrance at the other end of the store has also re-opened, as it had been closed whilst the entry/exit divide was in place.

In terms of restrictions in the nations it does seem that Wales is stubbornly holding on to tighter restrictions. I dare say that might change prior to the 6 nations, as I seem to recall reading it may affect matches at Cardiff.
My local Tesco only just changed their entrance back to the pre-Covid style, though it wasn't long after they closed one of them for a day during the strong winds.

Morrisons has been bidirectional for a while longer as well. At first, they just had one out of three entrances open before the two sets of automatic doors, increasing to two and one for staff use only, and then back to all three - in time for the old indoor trolley area to be repurposed as an area for seasonal snacking items.

However, it's just recently that they've cleared out the wall of water / alcohol separating the two doors inside the shop, after Christmas. Now one can be indecisive about which doors to use all the way across the foyer.
Image
Please Respond