Coronavirus - Strange times

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cwathen
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Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

james2001 wrote:Saying "masks don't work" is an extremely ridiculous position to take. It's as bad as the "if everyone just wore masks all the time, covid would go away" attitude that comes from the other side.

There are some things that have been totally ridiculous, like the bar/restaurant rule where you have to wear a mask walking to your table, going to the bar and going to the toilet, but you don't have to wear it at your table (i.e. 90% of the time you're in there), that sort of thing is basically a placebo at best, much like the parts of the world with outdoor masking mandates.
It's not that they have no utility at all, it's about what credible protection is being provided given the type of masks used and way they are being used. The example you have cited is part of the argument for them not working. As you say, exactly what protection is being gained by wearing a mask to walk through a door which can be taken off seconds later and unless you need a wee won't need putting back on again except for a few seconds more when leaving. Yet this is apparently so critical that it was previously a legal requirement.

Same for the placebo effects/bits of implied psychology which you've touched on too.
james2001
Posts: 718
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

I think a lot of the stuff with masks is placebo, because it's something that's visible, so it looks like something's being done regardless of whether it makes much of a difference in certain settings or not.

There's a question to what benefit at all there is to making people wear masks walking down half-empty streets or in parks, but in some parts of the world that's been the law (though not in the UK, at least). Really has been one of the least logical things to come out of this whole pandemic, whatever arguments you can use for needing them in crowded indoor places, there really isn't any logic at all to making them be worn outdoors at all times.

And I mentioned AV Forums in my last post, a couple of people on there have started suggesting 10PM kerfews and telling people off for wanting to go on holiday since I posted earlier... I know I should stop reading and getting so wound up by it for the sake of my sanity, but these people are so extreme it's at times hard to drag yourself away from the car crash. If they'd had their way we'd probably have barely been allowed out of our houses for the last 20 months. It's probably a good thing DS GD closed down or these people would still be on there and I'd be making myself even worse getting directly involved with the arguments rather than just reading them.
cwathen
Posts: 1309
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

james2001 wrote: Mon 06 Dec, 2021 20.16 I think a lot of the stuff with masks is placebo, because it's something that's visible, so it looks like something's being done regardless of whether it makes much of a difference in certain settings or not.
I'd agree with that, but that's absolutely not a reason to do it. Essentially it's like supporting Protect & Survive as a credible way of surviving a nuclear war on the basis that at least it's doing something. We don't need to 'do something' against Covid. We need perspective on what the threat to the general population actually is and proportionate interventions to manage that threat that deliver results whilst being balanced against what can credibly be done without causing carnage to normal life.
cdd
Posts: 2607
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 14.05

cwathen wrote: Thu 02 Dec, 2021 23.02We're all back to debating the merits of masks, and at the review in 3 weeks regardless of whether masks stay or masks go again in England there will be fury amongst those with strong views on masks whichever way the decision goes. It's somehow all become about masks. And yet whilst everyone's having a mask argument, travel restrictions [are] not even being discussed because everyone is arguing about bloody masks.
(Cross-quoted from masks thread).

I think the last three pages - in a thread not about masks when we have one about masks - proves the above point quite neatly!
james2001
Posts: 718
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

We had Labour praising the return of PCR and pre-departure testing a few days back, now they're complaining about the rip off prices as if it's an unforseen issue that hasn't been a major issue with travel testing all along. You'd think they'd know they were supporting a policy that's just going to cause people to get ripped off, it's not as if having a Tory government in charge means anything was ever going to be done to stop the companies blatant profiteering.

So many stories in the media the last few days about people cancelling holidays because the tests are too expensive or being stuck paying more than their flights cost to take the tests needed to get home. Not to mention the typical return of companies advertising "£15 tests" or similar, only to find you need to take a 200 mile round trip at a very specific time to get it, otherwise it's £70 or similar. The sooner all this travel testing can be scrapped, the better. All it's doing is making a fortune for unscrupulous companies and pricing many people out of travel. It's been such a money maker though I can see it being hard to get rid of.
cwathen
Posts: 1309
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

cdd wrote:I think the last three pages - in a thread not about masks when we have one about masks - proves the above point quite neatly!
That irony is not lost!
james2001 wrote:So many stories in the media the last few days about people cancelling holidays because the tests are too expensive or being stuck paying more than their flights cost to take the tests needed to get home.
Even if people can afford (or at least can somehow finance) the testing so they can still go, cancellations will continue and bookings will drop. Even if on 20th December all of these restrictions are rolled back, it won't just be 3 weeks of disruption and then back to where we were until 10 days ago. Not only can international travel not be turned on and off easily, but neither can consumer confidence on something so significant as leaving the country. This damage will take months to recover from.
james2001
Posts: 718
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

People aren't going to be confident, because even if travel testing does get removed for now, people are still going to be wary that it could be bought back at the drop of a hat, possibly while they're abroad. As long as the risk of testing and isolation mandates being reimposed is looming over, the travel industry won't recover. The same with masks on planes, even many people who are happy to pop one on for 20 minutes in a shop won't want to wear one for hours on end in planes and airports. I know loads of people who are fine wearing them in shops who say there's not a chance they'll fly anywhere while they're still required on planes.

To be honest, I won't be suprised if airline staff won't be glad to see the back of them too considering the amount of arguments and record incidents of air rage they've caused. Not that I condone any of the air rage, but it's understandable why people get tetchy when having to wear something that causes them discomfort for hours and they can't take it off. It's not as if travel bans, masking and testing mandates stopped Alpha, Delta and Omicron spreading throughout the world anyway. There's the question of whether all this continuing disruption to the travel industry is worth it when it's clear the virus and new variants are still going to spread internationally anyway (especially seeing as it looks like Omicron was already on every continent before the scientists even knew it existed). Doubly so if it turns out, as looks increasingly likely, that Omicron is causing little in the way of severe disease (the doom-mongers out there, online, in the media and in governments seem determined to cling onto everything they can to try and downplay this though, despite the lack of anything particularly worrying yet to emerge on the severe illness front- I wouldn't be suprised if even in a month's time we still haven't seen anything particularly worrying we'll still be told it's "too soon to be sure" and still have to have restrictions).
james2001
Posts: 718
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

Oh look, now there's a "stealth" version of omicron which isn't as easily indentifiable as such on PCR tests.... let's see how long it takes for this to be used as an excuse to introduce more restrictions.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... id-variant

Still, as far as I'm aware, not a single death attiributed to Omicron. And in the UK there's been no hospitalisations (and even most South African hospitalisations seem to be incidental- people admitted for other reasons, are found to have Omicron on routine covid tests, but aren't seriously ill from it). But it doesn't stop the blind panic. Obviously that isn't going to be the case forever, and when/if the first Omicron death does happen, I expect mass hysteria regardless of how the wider situation looks in comparison to previous variants.

I know people are saying it's early days, but if it was even as severe as Delta, or even Alpha, surely we'd be having at least some early indications of it by now, especially with the rapidly increasing number of cases. The fact that two weeks and tens of thousands of cases later, we still aren't hearing of deaths or intensive care beds filling up rapidly in South Africa despite the massive spike in cases has to be promising, I'm pretty sure we'd had bad indications with Delta by this point. As I said earlier though, even if we're still in a promising position in a month, I still expect the doomsayers to be telling us it's still too soon and we still need to worry.
Jonwo
Posts: 252
Joined: Sat 26 Apr, 2008 02.05

I personally think once oral antivirals like Paxlovid and Lagevrio are widely available, Governments and health experts will rely a lot less on NPI since it's financially draining to keep supporting businesses and individuals that have to reduce capacity or close that it's not something that will be long term.
cdd
Posts: 2607
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 14.05

The response to future potential threats is the thing that concerns me the most.

If hasty border closures are a good policy for Omicron, it follows that they should also have been imposed for Swine Flu. With hindsight, that would have been a monumentally expensive error, both socially and economically.

Worse, if travel restrictions are our response to future potential threats that turn out not to be a threat, we may slap ourselves on the back for “keeping it out”, never knowing that it would have been fine otherwise, creating a cycle that justifies the action.

I am of the view that the management of Covid from Jan to early Mar, with the exception of the actions of the CCP, was correct; even though it was a huge mistake in hindsight. That needs to be recognised more widely to avoid rash actions in response to every future potential threat over the next 30 years.
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Pete
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Location: Dundee

james2001 wrote: Tue 07 Dec, 2021 16.11Still, as far as I'm aware, not a single death attributed to Omicron. And in the UK there's been no hospitalisations.
I'd recall that the first cases in the UK appeared to be in November 2019 but the major deaths didn't happen until March.

There's a part of me that's just wanting to lock this thread. None of us are respiratory disease scientists and we're just going round in circles.

I think perhaps if we try to focus on some of the smaller things, like the travel tests, and cut back the mask chat it'd help.

Also I'm not particularly a fan of the idea that the government(s) are rubbing their thighs to introduce new restrictions at every point given every one so far as been introduced far too late and lifted far too early damaging any gains we may have had.
"He has to be larger than bacon"
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