Brexit

What's next?

Theresa May's Deal
8
18%
No deal
12
27%
People's vote
22
49%
Something else (pls specify)
3
7%
 
Total votes: 45
cwathen
Posts: 1117
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

Tue 20 Nov, 2018 20.47

Andrew wrote:Of course what is wrong there is that May was never anything to do with the Brexit Bus, she supported remain.

There does seem to be chunk of people that seem to think Brexit is fully aligned with the political parties. Tories means Brexit, Labour means remain. This is of course not the case.
I'm pretty much sure all Momentum/Corbyn era Labour supporters fail to grasp that their leader is one of the most anti-EU MPs in the house and has a demonstrable 30 year record of voting against anything pro-EU ever. Amongst other things, Corbyn privately voted Against remaining in the EEC in 1975, he voted as an MP against Maastricht in 1993 and against Lisbon in 2009. He is not the man to stop Brexit which his followers think he is. If anything, he would make a hard break and no deal more likely.

I feel Labour supporters also fail to grasp that historically Labour has been a more anti-Europe party than the Tories are. The UK entered the EEC in the first place under a Tory government and the first thing the successive Labour government did was hold a referendum on whether we should stay in. Fast forward to 2016 and all those people doing unskilled jobs banging on and on about immigration are traditionally cast iron Labour supporters, not Tories.

Labour could have won the 2017 general election on the back of a pledge to stop Brexit. But Corbyn made no such offer because he doesn't believe in stopping it.

The mess of Brexit and the Tory's own divisions is the only thing preventing the shambles of Labour being held to ransom by Momentum and the 3 pounders electing a leader the PLP doesn't want (and then in the 2016 leadership challenge finding out that they can't remove him either as the 3 pounders will just vote him in again) being discussed more widely than it deserves to be. I just wish all those left wing pro EU socialists could see that Corbyn isn't what they think he is.
Critique
Posts: 948
Joined: Mon 17 Aug, 2009 10.37
Location: Suffolk

Tue 20 Nov, 2018 21.12

As others have said, i think the future is really uncertain! We're certainly wasting time discussing May's draft deal at the moment because it'll never get voted through/accepted by a majority of people, but as cwathen says it's unlikely that anyone else could actually put something more agreeable on the table. I am surprised at how long May has lasted, but equally can't see a way forward for the Tories at the moment without her - she swept in with the Brexiteers flying high having won the referendum, meaning that even though she was a Remainer she was accepted as they felt that they'd won and that their was no reopening the issue. As it becomes apparent that the vote hasn't settled the question of Brexit, I can't see anyone who the Conservatives would unite behind - Leave voters will now want someone who also voted out as security, and Remainers will want anything but that to cling onto the hope of staying in.

I'd be inclined to say that another referendum of *some* description will be held, but I think it'll have to be worded very carefully to avoid sending Leave campaigners into a frenzy, and I don't think we're at the point yet where Remaining in the EU could feasibly appear on the ballot paper. If there is a second referendum, I imagine they'll ask more than one question!

Ultimately, whatever the outcome a large part of British society will most likely be dissatisfied - unfortunately I think we're stuck with the Brexit debate now for years to come!

Oh, and I agree with others about Labour being a shambles through this - I think people have generally accepted Corbyn now but don't appreciate the reality of what a Corbyn premiership would actually mean. If he was PM I think we'd be in largely the same position, as he's not going to get a better deal and ultimately would be happy to let us crash out.
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Nick Harvey
God
Posts: 4030
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 22.26
Location: Deepest Wiltshire
Contact:

Tue 20 Nov, 2018 22.43

Surely you all know by now that there's no point in asking me.

I'm a confirmed Moggy.
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Pete
Posts: 7145
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 13.36
Location: Dundee

Tue 20 Nov, 2018 22.53

Nick Harvey wrote:
Tue 20 Nov, 2018 22.43
Surely you all know by now that there's no point in asking me.

I'm a confirmed Moggy.
Out of curiosity, aside from your alignment on Brexit, do you feel Mogg is a credible politician? Or do you feel he's just a means to an end?
"He has to be larger than bacon"
Alexia
Posts: 2966
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

Tue 20 Nov, 2018 23.43

There *are* no credible politicians.
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MarkAshley
Posts: 3288
Joined: Tue 28 Oct, 2003 13.53
Location: Near the Bottom

Wed 21 Nov, 2018 00.54

Image
Hairy.
barcode
Posts: 1472
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Wed 21 Nov, 2018 16.17

cwathen wrote:
Tue 20 Nov, 2018 20.47

Labour could have won the 2017 general election on the back of a pledge to stop Brexit. But Corbyn made no such offer because he doesn't believe in stopping it.
That is a very misguide rule and could have in fact resulted in Labour losing another 30 odd seats to the Tories. Labour lost six seats at the election all were Big leave areas, and places that haven't voted tory in donkey years, probably as long as Canterbury has been tory.

What is annoying is Leave people think remoaner are basterds, while remainers think Leave people are racist gits which isn't true for a good number of us..

But this whole brexit thing is a complete and utter mess and I dont want those tory elite versions of brexit, thank you.. Boris is muppet, and gove is Devious
scottishtv
Posts: 598
Joined: Thu 01 Apr, 2004 15.36
Location: Edinburgh, Scotland

Wed 21 Nov, 2018 18.27

Critique wrote:
Tue 20 Nov, 2018 21.12
We're certainly wasting time discussing May's draft deal at the moment because it'll never get voted through/accepted by a majority of people, but as cwathen says it's unlikely that anyone else could actually put something more agreeable on the table.
I'm not picking on Critique, but I find it quite interesting that this is being labelled "May's deal" across the media. It's a draft agreement between the EU and the UK, and although some countries in the EU are upset (France and Spain see it as too generous to the UK!), this has been negotiated with them and their side is in no mood to re-open the negotiations, as is - it would seem - the UK Government.

Dominic Rabb was utterly cringe-worthy at the weekend saying he would go in at this late stage, and simply state to the EU "We're the United Kingdom here, let's be serious"... Is that all he's got? Corbyn likewise stated on Sky News he would pretty much do the same thing "Our parliament doesn't like this, let's do better." It's breathtaking arrogance, they are outsiders with no leverage. Corbyn even stated he would negotiate the Withdrawal Agreement during the transition period, but the transition period would only ever happen as a result of an agreed Withdrawal Agreement being in place. Crikey, if he doesn't understand something as simple as that....

I see Nicola Sturgeon is deploying some cynical "coalition building" tactics, presenting herself as being a credible 'helper'. She knows fine well she can't build support for her preference of staying in the single market and customs union. This will become apparent soon, at which point I expect the SNP will yet again declare that they have been ignored and "disrespected" by Westminster.

Even if the coalition parties could rabble together some form of wording, who are they going to take it to? Who will they be negotiating with? No-one. They have no leverage with the EU either. The only way to reach a deal with the EU is for the Government to do it, and both sides now consider the negotiations pretty much concluded. Why would the EU agree to re-open talks? Because the ERG is upset?!

That's why I think this deal might actually pass at some point. Maybe it'll get voted down first time, be revised a little - but not much - and somehow make it through at the 11th hour. Voting against, abstaining, or posturing from the other parties at a very late stage would be hugely risky, and I actually don't think the opposition parties would really 'enable' a no-deal scenario. They would surely be too scared of a public backlash?

Maybe I'm wrong. After all, Corbyn seems like the sort of guy who would let economic carnage happen just so he could get another go at a general election.

Finally, I'm surprised the poll shows a People's Vote doing so well. I don't think the Conservatives or Labour will become favourable towards another referendum taking place on this at all.
Alexia
Posts: 2966
Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

Wed 21 Nov, 2018 21.51

barcode wrote:
Wed 21 Nov, 2018 16.17
cwathen wrote:
Tue 20 Nov, 2018 20.47

Labour could have won the 2017 general election on the back of a pledge to stop Brexit. But Corbyn made no such offer because he doesn't believe in stopping it.
That is a very misguide rule and could have in fact resulted in Labour losing another 30 odd seats to the Tories.

That was then. Most recent polling on Brexit done by C4 and Survation show all Labour constituents are now majority pro-Remain. If Labour positioned itself as pro-Remain / pro-PV, it would in all likelihood hoover up LibDem, Green and Tory-lite support and possibly stray into majority govt territory.
james2001
Posts: 503
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

Wed 21 Nov, 2018 22.34

My sister and 15 of her colleagues just lost their jobs today as a result of brexit and her employer losing their EU funding. So that should help tell you what I think about this.
all new Phil
Posts: 1540
Joined: Sun 13 Feb, 2005 00.04
Location: Next door to Hell

Wed 21 Nov, 2018 22.43

That we should remain in the EU to keep 16 people in a job?
*ass
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