Decision '17

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WillPS
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Didn't see that coming! I presume the 'good week' Labour had last week was enough to unnerve her.

I'm pretty happy about it, even though I don't think Labour stand a chance. Hopefully total annihilation will be enough to give Momentum the boot.

For me the big question is - can the Lib Dems capitalise on being the only party still endorsing remaining in the EU?
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Philip
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The Lib Dems are apparently well prepared already:

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status ... 9341569024

"Lib Dems say they've picked 300 candidates already, been preparing since last summer, advertising prepped, battle buses reserved."
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bilky asko
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It's a genius move. Labour could well be down the shitter with this. I expect lots of surprise results as well.

EDIT: This could be a reprieve for the Lib Dems, and I wouldn't rule out a record breaking result for them.
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Critique
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Bloody hell! Very surprised to catch this announcement this morning, turned to my phone at about 10:50 and saw a tweet which speculated a GE and was quite shocked - even more so when it turned out to be true!

Really think this is going to be an absolute disaster for Labour - at the moment I'm curious as to whether some MPs might try and split from Corbyn because he will not lead to success at a general election.

Puts me in a bit of a quandary on who to vote for - last time it was Labour but I cannot justify supporting Jeremy Corbyn.
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WillPS
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Critique wrote:
Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11.50
Bloody hell! Very surprised to catch this announcement this morning, turned to my phone at about 10:50 and saw a tweet which speculated a GE and was quite shocked - even more so when it turned out to be true!

Really think this is going to be an absolute disaster for Labour - at the moment I'm curious as to whether some MPs might try and split from Corbyn because he will not lead to success at a general election.

Puts me in a bit of a quandary on who to vote for - last time it was Labour but I cannot justify supporting Jeremy Corbyn.
I don't think there's enough time to break off. The Co-op Party could have been the vessel for such a spin off but they didn't let it happen.
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Square Eyes
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Interesting times. Weak Labour, UKIP a spent political force, a potential resurgent Lib Dems.
Alexia
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WillPS wrote:
Tue 18 Apr, 2017 11.29
For me the big question is - can the Lib Dems capitalise on being the only party still endorsing remaining in the EU?
.....in England.
barcode
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If I was a Labour MP I would vote this down, I think there must either think its the only way of getting rid of their leader or I have no idea. There can't claim, she only doing this for her own means then happily vote to allow it to happen.
Square Eyes
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barcode wrote:
Tue 18 Apr, 2017 17.22
If I was a Labour MP I would vote this down, I think there must either think its the only way of getting rid of their leader or I have no idea. There can't claim, she only doing this for her own means then happily vote to allow it to happen.
An opposition not wanting an election ? They'd lose (even more) credibility.
cwathen
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I still stand by my view that in the event that the leader of the governing party changes (and therefore the prime minister changes) then that represents too fundamental a change in that government for them to carry on without seeking a new mandate from the people and as such a general election should always be called in these circumstances. But anyhoo, that isn't the system we have.

Pretty much shows up the fixed term parliaments act for being a joke - as no credible opposition can afford to vote against having a general election, the two thirds mandate needed is already been treated as the formality that it will doubtless turn out to be. Thus it is still possible for the governing party to time the next election at their choosing, there are just a few extra hoops to jump through.

A masterstroke from May though. Realistically there is no possibility of her not emerging victorious (although after Cameron's majority in 2015, and Brexit in 2016, and Trump in 2016 part of me wonders whether we will be surprised again) yet calling an election 3 years before she had to can still be claimed to be a ballsy move. And after Gordon Brown desperately clung on to power until he was forced to call an election in 2010, this move doubtless be the basis for a number of exchanges in the months and years to come.

She has also now effectively solidified remaining in power until at least 2022 whereas previously she only had until 2020.

For possibly the only time in my living memory though, the winner won't be the headline. Corbyn is now effectively stuck in a car crash in slow motion. He will have to lead Labour into this election, yet they are very likely to do even worse than 2015. He will have to resign afterwords (and I suspect he knows that) but he can't go yet and will have to suffer the humiliation of losing an election and resigning the next day rather than be allowed the dignity of going a year or two before one at a time of his choosing as I suspected he planned to do. And no one yet knows how badly Labour is going to do. Not a nice place to be.

How much ground the Libdems will crawl back is uncertain. As the party of trying to prevent Brexit, will they swing over a number of non-traditional voters who cling to the hope that somehow it won't happen?

Will the SNP's signifcant presence in Westminster turn out to be a brief blip or will it be solidified? Either outcome will strongly affect the likelihood of IndyRef2.

And how much support will UKIP have now that the fundamental aim of their party has been achieved and they have no obvious reason to still exist?
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WillPS
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Square Eyes wrote:
Tue 18 Apr, 2017 17.55
barcode wrote:
Tue 18 Apr, 2017 17.22
If I was a Labour MP I would vote this down, I think there must either think its the only way of getting rid of their leader or I have no idea. There can't claim, she only doing this for her own means then happily vote to allow it to happen.
An opposition not wanting an election ? They'd lose (even more) credibility.
And in any case utterly futile as Theresa May could 'win' a vote of no confidence in her own government with a simple majority.
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