The BIG MetroPoll - IN or OUT ?

Are you IN or OUT ?

IN
31
70%
OUT
13
30%
 
Total votes: 44
james2001
Posts: 569
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

WillPS wrote:And if the result was Remain you'd say the same thing?
He'd have been a graceful and accepting loser, I'm sure. Just like Farage would have been.
cwathen
Posts: 1149
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 17.28

I do wonder quite where the happy majority of brexiters actually are? I've bumped into nobody in person willing to admit voting to leave, every customer I've served today have complained about it, and even the battleground of Facebook has seen very little defence of the leave decision from people who have spent the last few months with vote leave profile pictures (most of which have swiftly been changed back). Meanwhile the mood in the town centre at the peek of today ranged from the same as usual to a bit sombre. Certainly don't see much of a party mood going on.

Given that there is little political will to actually do this, the majority of MPs on all sides favoured remain, and a number of high profile leave MPs (not least of which Boris himself) seem very keen to take a 'no rush' standpoint - and then of course there's the almost immediate backtracking from promises made about immigration and spending. It seems obvious that whilst proclaiming respect for the result publically, privately they will now be looking at strategies for not going through with it.

A straight second referendum - essentially saying that the 'wrong' decision was made can't happen, nor can putting it to an MPs vote citing that it was only advisory realistically happen either.

Personally, I don't think article 50 will happen this year. Cameron has already ruled out doing it during his remaining time in office. Once he's gone, I think Prime Minister Boris/unlikely non-Boris PM will push for a general election next year under the 'two thirds' clause (If all the tories are directed to vote for it, they only need about 100 more from other sides to get to the number needed, which should be achievable), then use this as an argument to not invoke article 50 under the existing mandate. Assuming victory at said election, I think the earliest he would consider triggering article 50 is a year from now (his own vague timetable a few weeks ago leads towards actual brexit in 2020, not 2018 as would happen with an immediate trigger) and at that point if the economy is sinking / public mood has changed / Europe come up with a last chance deal (which I still wouldn't rule out, however much they need to be seen to be taking a tough line) this will be the argument for a 2nd referendum on the basis that the playing field has fundamentally changed from this one and it would only be right to ask again.
WillPS wrote:There's a petition with close to a million signatures asking for a second referendum: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

Unfortunately it does it on the flimsy ground that the rules should retrospectively by changed to require a majority of at least 60%; so it'll be dismissed most likely.
Now up to 2.6 million. Realistically, it can't get anywhere though - after all pretty much everyone in the petition will be remain supporters feeling that the outcome is 'wrong' and wanting another referendum. For all the reports of lies peddled to leave campaigners and voter regret now, the referendum was won under the rules of the game. Whilst there arguably should have been a tipping threshold and a turnout threshold, there weren't. Only possible exception to give this validity would be if it got to 16 and a bit million which would be the tipping point for a remain victory. It'll never keep up enough momentum for that (although I am surprised at how the numbers keep going up - they've increased by 100000 as I've been typing this).

A more valid argument would be for the Bregretters to set up a petition stating that they wish to change their minds on voting to leave. Technically, that would only need just over 600,000 votes to be able to tip the result back to remain and for an argument of validity to exist. Although of course there is no way of anyone signing proving that they did actually vote to leave so it still wouldn't work.
WillPS wrote:I think a second referendum, possibly at the beginning of an Article 50 declaration (itself probably years away) is what will happen though. The Leave campaign's claims are unravelling faster than expected and there are some pretty strong statements of regret from leave voters.
What would that achieve though? My understanding is that article 50 declaration is a 'red button' moment which sets the 2 year timetable for leaving in motion and there is no way of changing our mind at that point unless we could get all the member states to agree. And if we use 5-6 months of that time up campaigning and holding a second referendum, we will have lost valuable negotiating time if the result is still to leave. Surely any move to not go through with this has to happen before triggering article 50?
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WillPS
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Sorry, I didn't word that particularly well. What I meant was a second vote immediately ahead of an Article 50 declaration.
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Martin Phillp
Posts: 1019
Joined: Wed 11 May, 2011 01.28

The UKIP supporting Express is claiming the petition was started by a member of the far-right English Democrats.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/683410 ... the-Brexit
TVF's London Lite.
Square Eyes
Posts: 630
Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 13.38

Labour now in full meltdown.
barcode
Posts: 1473
Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

Its seems that petition is full of fraud.....

https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald/com ... _is_being/

Look who are keep a close eye on it: https://twitter.com/GOVUK/with_replies
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WillPS
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I don't think there's a great mystery there. The petition 'went viral' and the Web Archive cache is not that accurate, there's nothing more to it. It's a load of rubbish anyway as we all know - Parliament will simply respond with "we can't do that". That doesn't mean EURef2 wont happen and the petition wont make any difference at all down the line.

I supported Jeremy Corbyn last Summer, and I don't really agree that he is responsible for the failure of the Remain camp, but I do think the only options on the table now are his resignation or utter annihilation. For starters, I don't think he'll be able to form a shadow cabinet once all of the resignations which will happen today and tomorrow happen.
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Dr Lobster*
Posts: 2013
Joined: Sat 30 Aug, 2003 20.14

i think this result shows, if anything people are more disenfranchised with politics than they ever have been - certainly in my lifetime.

whilst i voted remain, i see almost every public institution as utterly useless and our democracy, an illusion.

local government (in england, anyway) is a complete waste of time and money, there is no accountability in anything they do, they are completely toothless and gutless, and a parish council meeting is really a two hour chat about whether to spend £20 on a bin.

in the end, as an individual, there is absolutely no one or no where you can go to get your voice heard or anything done locally - even with small things which are in the local councils power to change.

i remember, a few years ago now during the 2010 election a local mp put a flyer through my door stating that one of the things he'd be fighting for locally was a pedestrian crossing over a busy main road near where we lived (long story.... bus stop, children, busy road, school nearby etc etc) there are many other little "niggles" that have local support like that around here, as i'm sure there are everywhere.

it seems to me that if your member of parliament has got to fight for something like that, there is something truly and fundamentally wrong with our system - councillors, councils and politicians seem completely powerless to act because our democracy has become so fragmented, accountability is lost, and so, really, to me, it doesn't really exist any more.

i can see that people think the european union is another impenetrable and inaccessible layer of bureaucracy which obfuscates accountability.

oh, and 6 years on... there still isn't a crossing.
james2001
Posts: 569
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

IDS on TV this morning showing he doesn't have a clue. The Leave side are clearly in total dissaray without a plan now they've won, they can't deliver any of the things they promised, and Cameron's resigned forcing them to pick up the mess leaving them in a state of panic.
james2001
Posts: 569
Joined: Sat 04 Jun, 2005 23.10

And now the Lib Dems are saying they're going to campaign on reversing the decision! http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... ign=buffer
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WillPS
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Joined: Tue 22 Apr, 2008 18.32
Location: Carlton
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Dr Lobster* wrote:i think this result shows, if anything people are more disenfranchised with politics than they ever have been - certainly in my lifetime.

whilst i voted remain, i see almost every public institution as utterly useless and our democracy, an illusion.

local government (in england, anyway) is a complete waste of time and money, there is no accountability in anything they do, they are completely toothless and gutless, and a parish council meeting is really a two hour chat about whether to spend £20 on a bin.

in the end, as an individual, there is absolutely no one or no where you can go to get your voice heard or anything done locally - even with small things which are in the local councils power to change.

i remember, a few years ago now during the 2010 election a local mp put a flyer through my door stating that one of the things he'd be fighting for locally was a pedestrian crossing over a busy main road near where we lived (long story.... bus stop, children, busy road, school nearby etc etc) there are many other little "niggles" that have local support like that around here, as i'm sure there are everywhere.

it seems to me that if your member of parliament has got to fight for something like that, there is something truly and fundamentally wrong with our system - councillors, councils and politicians seem completely powerless to act because our democracy has become so fragmented, accountability is lost, and so, really, to me, it doesn't really exist any more.

i can see that people think the european union is another impenetrable and inaccessible layer of bureaucracy which obfuscates accountability.

oh, and 6 years on... there still isn't a crossing.
I agree but that is a domestic issue and nothing to do with the EU.

I would love nothing more than to reboot democracy, turn Westminster in to a museum and split the country in to blocks of 8m or so with a proper federal structure. We can do this *inside* the EU though.
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