The BIG MetroPoll - IN or OUT ?

[DTV]

Both campaigns are Tory lead, both are hopeless and full of fear. They've got to be irreparably damaged after this.

A lot of irreparable damage no matter the outcome will be to the Conservative party. What began as a throwaway attempt to quell a backbench rebellion and keep Conservatives united could be the one thing that actually tears the party apart - and it will be an amazing thing to watch. I mean Labour can do a good attempt at infighting, but the Conservatives are really turning out to be real experts at civil war. With all these preposterous scare arguments on both sides, Boris and Dave really are just widening the rift in the Conservative party as well as, as Nicola Sturgeon has been noting, alienating a lot of voters. I think what happens to UK party politics after the referendum could be the most interesting thing about the whole campaign.

And at the end of it all, there'll be some press releases about how they're all friends again, how the winners apologise for some statements may have been taken out of context, and how the losers fought a good fight, and how labour were secretly hoping the losers would win. And the majority of those supporting the tories will lap it up.

The "inners" don't want to see Boris excluded, and the "outers" don't want the fracture caused by Cameron taking his supporters with him. Both sides will want to make amends and draw focus towards how little the labour party has engaged the electorate.

I don't think it'll be that simple after the referendum, if there's a leave vote then Boris will be handing the petition to the 1922 Committee within an hour of the announcement to start the leadership contest. If there's a remain vote then the Conservatives will probably see a significant number of Eurosceptic voters switch to UKIP. A leave vote is probably the result that is best for Conservative party unity as most Local Associations (influential in leadership elections) and voters are Eurosceptic and post-referendum politics can be incredibly volatile in terms of party allegiances, Scotland has definitely shown that. UKIP, somewhat ironically given the original cause of the referendum, will be the likely beneficiaries of the referendum either way - they've either won their primary goal or will likely get a load of new voters alienated by the two main parties.

[Alexia]

Thing is though, outside of the insular world of right wing voters, UKIP will take a massive dent in appeal and/or credibility after the vote no matter what. If we Leave, they'll have achieved their aim and their raison d'etre will cease to exist. They will either have to think up some policies that will sit well with a 21stC electorate and not a 1950s one in order to spread their appeal beyond the reactionary protest vote or rebrand as some sort of extra Tory party - perhaps Christian Democrat or something. I can't see the membership, the leadership or the funding base having the stomach for a long-term political project which actually involves doing something substantial.

If we vote to stay, then that's it for them. They could continue their campaign, but every time they brought it up, the result of the referendum would be slapped in their face like a (quota) wet fish, just as any hint of a new Scottish IndyRef mk2 by the SNP is being slapped by numerous wet fish. Their fickle supporters would melt away over the next few elections, their politicians will get tired of being on a losing side and get tired with standing atand spending deposits on elections they won't win.

One way or another, we've reached peakip.

[Square Eyes]

I think it's time up for Cameron whichever way the vote goes. His position becomes untenable if its leave, and there is no way he can unite the Tories if its remain. The spectacle of a Tory leadership to look forward to. It won't be Boris or George. I expect it will be Theresa May.

[WillPS]

I think it's time up for Cameron whichever way the vote goes. His position becomes untenable if its leave, and there is no way he can unite the Tories if its remain. The spectacle of a Tory leadership to look forward to. It won't be Boris or George. I expect it will be Theresa May.

It would be a total dream for Corbyn.

[Steve in Pudsey]

Anybody else see the referendum campaign broadcast for Vote Leave tonight? Caught it just before ITV Evening News. It was a bit weird as they had this graphical introduction, followed by a piece on the differences between the NHS in and out of Europe, and then… repeated the introduction bit again. Just seemed a bit odd to me.

And the content was pretty dubious too. It was making a pretty big claim that if we left the money currently going to the EU (which has been widely shown not to be £350m a week) would be pumped into the NHS. Which is fanciful as we have a Tory government that seems hell bent on destroying public services like the NHS. That broadcast was promising something that it is not within the out campaign's gift to deliver.

The leave campaign's grass is greener message is so full of conjecture and speculation it's unreal. I watched the first 15 minutes of the Brexit movie they put on YouTube and counted a dozen factual errors, half truths, deliberate misinterpretations and downright lies.

The leave campaign argument amounts to "would you like to buy some magic beans"

[thegeek]

The Remain campaign isn't brilliant either. I did a bit of flyering for Stronger In at lunchtime today. The leaflets I was handing out rather patronisingly said "Confused about the EU Referendum?" on one side, and had lots of (referenced) facts on the other side, though as someone pointed out to me recently, 'you can prove anything with facts'. Rather oddly, they missed out the date of the referendum, and the campaign's website, and a call to action for making sure you're registered, all of which I'd have thought would be salient.

I did get into an interesting conversation with a staunchly undecided voter, who thought I (or rather, by extension the In campaign) were going about it all wrong, and I had to agree with him - as an individual supporter, you can agree with the aims of the campaign, but don't really have much influence in the means. The best you can do is trust that it'll work and hope that it helps to persuade some switherers in your direction.

[Steve in Pudsey]

True, there has been plenty of speculation about what happens if we leave from both sides. The Remain campain really has the easier job here because they are campaigning for the status quo, everyone knows what they are getting if they vote to stay.

So they just have to debunk the Leave campain's dodgier claims and put out a message that if you haven't been convinced by Boris and Nigel's arguments you really ought to be voting to stay.

[Square Eyes]

The Remain campain really has the easier job here because they are campaigning for the status quo, everyone knows what they are getting if they vote to stay.

Well not quite. We are supposedly voting now for Cameron's Reformed EU. Although nobody is aware of what the hell that is, they certainly don't appear to be campaigning on it, and there is no option to vote for what we had before.

[all new Phil]

I think if the result is a decisive leave, BoJo will have competition for the leadership from Pritti Patel. And she'll win.

Just can't see Boris in Number 10, at all.

[Alexia]

I think if the result is a decisive leave, BoJo will have competition for the leadership from Pritti Patel. And she'll win.

Just can't see Boris in Number 10, at all.

Oh please. Boris has more gravitas than that airhead Patel in his little finger.

[Steve in Pudsey]

The Remain campain really has the easier job here because they are campaigning for the status quo, everyone knows what they are getting if they vote to stay.

Well not quite. We are supposedly voting now for Cameron's Reformed EU. Although nobody is aware of what the hell that is, they certainly don't appear to be campaigning on it, and there is no option to vote for what we had before.

Fair point, although I understand that the deal Cameron got is provisional until it has been voted on.