The BIG MetroPoll - IN or OUT ?

[bilky asko]

There was a very high level of "Yes" engagement in the Scottish referendum (look how many more "Yes" stickers, posters, street stalls and social media activity there was than "No Thanks" ones), but they still didn't win, so I wouldn't take what you're seeing there in terms of meaning anything. The Brexiters might have all the passion and shout the loudest (they're the ones pushing for change after all- just like the "Yes" side in Scotland), but it doesn't mean they're in the majority.

And yes, the pollsters have been wrong recently, but the polls have been showing pretty consistent leads for Remain, they can't be THAT wrong. I find it hard to believe it could be that consistent if Leave really was ahead unless the pollsters really have royally screwed up. They did predict the Tories coming second in Holyrood after all, even though everyone was dismissing the idea even on the night.

I mean a high level of engagement in general (I have seen a very active presence for the two big Leave campaigns as well as Remain on the streets, and more window stickers and posters than I've ever seen in this area).

The polls, as usual, disagree with each other on the result and the precise figures. The latest TNS poll shows a lead for Leave; the latest ComRes poll shows a lead for Remain.

A lot can change in a month, and I wouldn't place too much stock in the polls at this point, especially considering that we've not had the TV debates and the possibility of a high don't know figure deciding on the day.

[Finn]

So I can't accept "regaining control of our borders" as an argument for leaving either.

Plus, of course, the Leave campaign glosses over the fact that we are not part of the Schengen area and so have control of our borders anyway.

[robschneider]

I'd say amongst my friends it's split more or less three ways - a third remain, a third leave and a third genuinely undecided. The majority of that latter third are a bit pissed off with the "scare" tactics that even I have to admit are coming from both sides.

[cdd]

In - because of free mobile phone roaming.

It may be a frivolous reason - but at least it's a reason...

[DTV]

The polls, as usual, disagree with each other on the result and the precise figures. The latest TNS poll shows a lead for Leave; the latest ComRes poll shows a lead for Remain.

That isn't even the most inconclusive polling - ICM conducted online and phone polls using the same methodology and the phone poll gave an 8% Remain lead and the online poll gave a 4% Leave lead.

In terms of individual pollsters I tend to trust Survation the most - they were the only ones to produce a final poll in the general election that got both Labour and the Conservative votes to within 1%. In the Scottish election they, and YouGov, were the pollsters that were most sceptical in terms of SNP vote shares, the first to consistently show the Greens ahead of the Lib Dems and the first to show Conservatives edging ahead in the Regional vote. YouGov were good in Wales and Scotland this year, but were fairly poor last year. In the current national polls YouGov are the only pollsters to be giving a Labour lead (3% last two polls) whereas ComRes are consistently giving Conservatives substantial leads. TNS seem quite poor - 5% off in terms of Conservative vote share at the general election and massively off in the Scottish elections.

[bilky asko]

Yes, I picked out two random polls out of a list. I seem to recall TNS polling tends to be done over a longer time period and not too frequently. Their don't know figure also seems to be unusually high..

[james2001]

Today, the odds on a "remain" vote are the shortest they've been, and the odds on a "leave" vote are the longest.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britai ... KKCN0YE21C

If a "leave" vote is the certainty I've heard countless Brexiters insisting, then surely this means the bookies are committing suicide

And you know the saying that you never see a poor bookie!

[Philip]

Anybody else see the referendum campaign broadcast for Vote Leave tonight? Caught it just before ITV Evening News. It was a bit weird as they had this graphical introduction, followed by a piece on the differences between the NHS in and out of Europe, and then… repeated the introduction bit again. Just seemed a bit odd to me.

[Alexia]

The very idea that rabid right wing Eurosceptics are suddenly the darling defenders of the NHS makes me heave.

[Square Eyes]

Cameron should be ashamed. All these apocalyptic consequences for Brexit - recession, half a million lost jobs, world war 3, nhs collapse, yet it's his pointless referendum that puts it all at risk. It's not in the national interest and so he should go for making it possible.

Both campaigns are Tory lead, both are hopeless and full of fear. They've got to be irreparably damaged after this.

[dosxuk]

And at the end of it all, there'll be some press releases about how they're all friends again, how the winners apologise for some statements may have been taken out of context, and how the losers fought a good fight, and how labour were secretly hoping the losers would win. And the majority of those supporting the tories will lap it up.

The "inners" don't want to see Boris excluded, and the "outers" don't want the fracture caused by Cameron taking his supporters with him. Both sides will want to make amends and draw focus towards how little the labour party has engaged the electorate.