The Next Big election: May 2016.

DTV
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Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

Though not related to the upcoming elections, this week the seat allocations per region were announced for the new Parliamentary boundaries which will come into effect in 2020, should they pass parliament (hopefully the Lib Dem-Labour coalition in the Lords will be able to vote it down). Using UK Polling Report's figures of what the 2015 election would have looked like on the 2013 boundary review, I've roughly calculated what the 2015 election would look like under this new review.
CON 323 (-7)
LAB 200 (-32)
SNP 51 (-5)
LD 4 (-4)
PC 2 (-1)
SDLP 2 (-1)
Others - No Change

This means that 86% of the 'lost MPs' will be representing left, centre-left or centre parties, while the Tories would increase their majority from 12 to 46 despite there being an overall decrease of 50 MPs. I spy with my little eye something beginning with G.

Also this will change the composition of Stormont which also voted to reduce MLAs per constituency to 5 this week - from 2021 there will only be 85 MLAs compared to 108 at the moment. The Senedd also has constituencies linked to the Westminster constituencies and they're losing 11 MPs at a time when many in the Senedd want to increase the number of AMs, maybe they could elected 2 per constituency under STV as well as the Top Up votes?
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WillPS
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If those numbers are correct then God knows how the Tories intend to get that past the Lords.
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Alexia
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WillPS wrote:If those numbers are correct then God knows how the Tories intend to get that past the Lords.
There's a plan afoot to flood the HoL with more Tories.
Philip
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No posts on an election for two months? I'm shocked, Metropol.

Looks like Sadiq will win London.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/lo ... 40481.html
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bilky asko
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Joined: Sat 08 Nov, 2008 19.48

Philip wrote:No posts on an election for two months? I'm shocked, Metropol.

Looks like Sadiq will win London.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/lo ... 40481.html
My local ballot box was inundated this morning with my vote for my local Police and Crime Commissioner.
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Philip
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bilky asko wrote:
Philip wrote:No posts on an election for two months? I'm shocked, Metropol.

Looks like Sadiq will win London.

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/lo ... 40481.html
My local ballot box was inundated this morning with my vote for my local Police and Crime Commissioner.
Will be interesting to see the turnout statistics this time. It was notoriously low in 2012

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20374139
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Alexia
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Joined: Sat 01 Oct, 2005 17.50

Holding it on same day as Welsh Assembly elections should mean more than the 0% turnout in the Bettws ward of Newport this time.

However, knowing Bettws, voting for a police and crime comissioner there is like turkeys voting for Christmas.
barcode
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Joined: Wed 29 Aug, 2007 19.36

I'll say this, Labour got more votes than the tories in Scotland, yet only got half the seats, explain that one...

Scotland:
SNP Scottish National Party 46.5
LAB Scottish Labour 22.6
CON Scottish Conservatives 22.0
LD Scottish Lib Dems 7.8
GRN Scottish Green Party 0.6
OTH OTHERS 0.5

And there say PR works?
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iSon
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Joined: Fri 15 Aug, 2003 23.24
Location: London

barcode wrote:I'll say this, Labour got more votes than the tories in Scotland, yet only got half the seats, explain that one...

Scotland:
SNP Scottish National Party 46.5
LAB Scottish Labour 22.6
CON Scottish Conservatives 22.0
LD Scottish Lib Dems 7.8
GRN Scottish Green Party 0.6
OTH OTHERS 0.5

And there say PR works?
You can't blame the system... Labour failed to win in enough of their constituencies under first past the post. The additional member system did pretty well at topping up - giving Labour 21 seats to the Conservatives 24. And that's right as the Tories polled better in the list vote.

On a personal level, I am surprised to see such a Conservative comeback. But, it just highlights the consolidation of the SNP as the governing party and the collapse of Labour as effective opposition. I've no doubt they will burn through a few more leaders before they find their level again.
Good Lord!
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Nick Harvey
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Philip wrote:Will be interesting to see the turnout statistics this time. It was notoriously low in 2012
Across Wiltshire, for the PCC election the turnout was 24.7%, up on 2012.

However, in rural areas, with no other election (so everywhere exept Swindon), it was reported to "have struggled to get above 13%".

Additionally, in Wiltshire, 3,500 ballot papers were deliberately spoilt, by people complaining about the lack of information about the PCC role.

(Source: http://www.gazetteandherald.co.uk/news/ ... ner_title/)
DTV
Posts: 125
Joined: Mon 12 Mar, 2012 19.27

barcode wrote:I'll say this, Labour got more votes than the tories in Scotland, yet only got half the seats, explain that one...

Scotland:
SNP Scottish National Party 46.5
LAB Scottish Labour 22.6
CON Scottish Conservatives 22.0
LD Scottish Lib Dems 7.8
GRN Scottish Green Party 0.6
OTH OTHERS 0.5

And there say PR works?
For a start AMS isn't a proportional system - it's a hybrid system which has a proportional element. This proportional element is used to 'top-up' seats according to the unfairness of First Past The Post. As the Party List constituencies are small (7 seats) this means that they aren't particularly proportional. Furthermore, the regional MSPs are allocated according to the regional vote and not the constituency vote as you've misleadingly posted - the Scottish Conservatives got almost 4% more regional votes than Scottish Labour and so got more seats. It also just so happens that the Scottish Conservatives were better at winning First Past The Post seats and better at getting the 'top-up' votes where they needed them. Scottish Labour obviously didn't have the same level of coordination and so got regional votes in regions where they got constituency MSPs elected - thus denying them regional MSPs.

Scottish Labour performed worse than was to predicted - probably because they are not catching up with the new political climate in Scotland. Like in the early 1970s in Northern Ireland - parties are going to have to find a place for themselves in the new political climate or they will become irrelevant like the Northern Irish Labour Party. The Scottish Conservatives have very much set out their stall as the Unionist party as opposed to the Nationalist party and this is getting through to unionist voters. Labour missed the mark - many of their 'Yes' voters have deserted them to the SNP and if they don't create a clear platform for themselves they'll lose many of their 'No' voters. Scottish Labour are trying to pretend that the independence question is irrelevant and behind everyone - something that just isn't right and it has cost them. The bottom line from the election is the Scottish Conservatives and Lib Dems performed better than was expected; the SNP and the Scottish Greens performed well but not as well some may have expected; and Scottish Labour were just shit.
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